PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Study: Models to predict scientists' future impact often fail

2013-10-30
(Press-News.org) Contact information: Santo Fortunato
santo.fortunato@aalto.fi
358-504-605-511
Aalto University
Study: Models to predict scientists' future impact often fail

Models universities partially use to forecast scientists' future contributions are not as reliable as previously thought. In a recent study, Aalto University and IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca researchers demonstrate mathematical analysis of past performance cannot reliably determine the future performance. This means that current models dangerously overestimate the predictability and should not be used for career advancement decision process.

"Based on our results, the predictability of current models for real application in recruitment decisions is questionable. Efforts to model future impact need to be aimed more directly at applications in the career advancement decision process," says Professor Santo Fortunato from Aalto University in Finland.

In recent years it has become more common for universities to use quantitative measures for yard-sticking the productivity and impact of individual researchers to help reduce hiring risks. Models thought to be capable of foreseeing a scientist's future impact by way of his or her future 'h-index' have become a common tool in recruitment decisions as well as other scientific evaluation, advancement, and reward processes.

Scientists concluded that great caution should be taken when attempting to forecast an individual's future based on their 'h-index'. Specifically the authors show that it is easy to grossly overestimate the predictability of cumulative measures over a person's entire career.

The study analyzed 762 scientists from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics. By applying future impact models to these careers, a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models were identified. Specifically, the 'h-index' contains false autocorrelation, resulting in a significant overestimation of "predictive power". Moreover, the "predictive power" of these models vary greatly with the career age of scientists, producing least accurate estimates for already risk-burdened early career researchers.

Aalto researchers concluded that care must be taken to select the correct measures and methods to evaluate scientific candidates in the future. Increased attention should be paid to the potential shortfalls of quantitative methods when applied to the decision-making process.

The results were published in the Scientific Reports, a research publication from the publishers of Nature. This study was conducted by Raj Kumar Pany, Kimmo Kaski and Santo Fortunato from Aalto University in collaboration along with Orion Penner and Alexander M. Petersen from the IMT Institute for Advanced Studies in Lucca, Italy.



INFORMATION:

For more information, please contact:

Professor Santo Fortunato
Aalto University, School of Science, Dept. of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science
Email: santo.fortunato@aalto.fi
Tel. +358 50 460 5511

Postdoctoral Researcher Raj Kumar Pan
Aalto University, School of Science, Dept. of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science
Email: rajkumar.pan@aalto.fi
Tel. +358 50 512 4346



ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Persons with Alzheimer's are more likely to suffer from heart disease -- yet offered less treatment options than others

2013-10-30
Persons with Alzheimer's are more likely to suffer from heart disease -- yet offered less treatment options than others Persons with Alzheimer's disease suffer from ischaemic heart diseases more frequently than others, yet they undergo related ...

Improving light and heat spectra measurements

2013-10-30
Improving light and heat spectra measurements PTB software for industry and research can be downloaded free of charge Whether you want to investigate objects in space, characterize the quality of light sources, optimize photovoltaics ...

Recycling valuable materials used in TVs, car batteries, cell phones

2013-10-30
Recycling valuable materials used in TVs, car batteries, cell phones Many of today's technologies, from hybrid car batteries to flat-screen televisions, rely on materials known as rare earth elements (REEs) that are in short supply, but scientists are reporting ...

Qigong can help fight fatigue in prostate cancer survivors

2013-10-30
Qigong can help fight fatigue in prostate cancer survivors Pilot study shows that older patients enjoy and benefit from this mind-body activity The flowing movements and meditative exercises of the mind-body activity Qigong may help survivors of prostate cancer to combat ...

HDL cholesterol controls blood glucose

2013-10-30
HDL cholesterol controls blood glucose Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease rates are markedly increased in individuals with type 2 diabetes. One of the strongest independent predictors ...

Brain regions can be specifically trained

2013-10-30
Brain regions can be specifically trained This news release is available in German. Video gaming causes increases in the brain regions responsible for spatial orientation, memory formation and strategic planning as well as fine motor skills. This ...

The world's most powerful terahertz quantum cascade laser

2013-10-30
The world's most powerful terahertz quantum cascade laser Whether it is diagnostic imaging, analysis of unknown substances or ultrafast communication -- terahertz radiation sources are becoming more and more important; At the Vienna University ...

Google street view -- tool for recording earthquake damage

2013-10-30
Google street view -- tool for recording earthquake damage 2009 L'Aquila quake's destruction revealed through contrast of images SAN FRANCISCO, October 30, 2013 -- A scientist from Cologne University has used Google's online street view scans to document ...

A mimic of 'good cholesterol' could someday treat cardiovascular and other diseases

2013-10-30
A mimic of 'good cholesterol' could someday treat cardiovascular and other diseases A new type of "good cholesterol," made in the lab, could one day deliver drugs to where they are needed in the body to treat disease or be used in medical imaging, according ...

Low vitamin D levels during pregnancy associated with preterm birth in non-white mothers

2013-10-30
Low vitamin D levels during pregnancy associated with preterm birth in non-white mothers PITTSBURGH, Oct. 30, 2013 – African-American and Puerto Rican women who have low levels of vitamin D during pregnancy are more likely to go ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Attitudes, not income, drive energy savings at home

The playbook for perfect polaritons

‘Disease in a dish’ study of progressive MS finds critical role for unusual type of brain cell

Solar-powered method lights the way to a ‘de-fossilized’ chemical industry

Screen time linked to lower academic achievement among Ontario elementary students

One-year outcomes after traumatic brain injury and early extracranial surgery in the TRACK-TBI Study

Enduring outcomes of COVID-19 work absences on the US labor market

Affirmative action repeal and racial and ethnic diversity in us medical school admissions

Cancer progression illuminated by new multi-omics tool

Screen time and standardized academic achievement tests in elementary school

GLP-1RA order fills and out-of-pocket costs by race, ethnicity, and indication

Study finds HEPA purifiers alone may not be enough to reduce viral exposure in schools

UVA Health developing way to ID people at risk of dangerous lung scarring even before symptoms appear

How can we know when curing cancer causes myocarditis?

Male infertility in Indian men linked to lifestyle choices and hormonal imbalances

An acoustofluidic device for sample preparation and detection of small extracellular vesicles

The advent of nanotechnology has ushered in a transformative era for oncology, offering unprecedented capabilities for targeted drug delivery and controlled release. This paradigm shift enhances thera

A prototype LED as thin as wallpaper — that glows like the sun

Transnational electoral participation of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the US

A new method to build more energy-efficient memory devices for a sustainable data future

Freely levitating rotor spins out ultraprecise sensors for classical and quantum physics

‘Chinese lantern’ structure shifts into more than a dozen shapes for various applications

Towards light-controlled electronic components

Tiny architects, titanic climate impact: scientists call for October 10 to become International Coccolithophore Day

Stress sensitivity makes suicidal thoughts more extreme and persistent among the university population

Lessons from Ascension’s shark troubles could help boost conservation

Fire provides long-lasting benefits to bird populations in Sierra Nevada National Parks

Menstrual cycle affects women’s reaction time but not as much as being active

Housing associations more effective than government in supporting unemployed in deprived areas

Biochar helps composting go greener by cutting greenhouse gas emissions

[Press-News.org] Study: Models to predict scientists' future impact often fail