(Press-News.org) Contact information: Joan Robinson
joan.robinson@springer.com
49-622-148-78130
Springer
Think you're an expert bettor? You're probably wrong
Even rational gamblers can be deluded about how good they are at their game
If there's one thing you can bet on in horseracing, it's this: so-called successful bettors will always think that their little black books hold superior 'inside' knowledge that makes them experts. However, in the long run, the majority of horseracing punters will lose money at the track – and there will always be more losers than winners. Serious punters will often keep track of how well they are doing, in the fond hope of identifying a 'winning system.' So says Matthew Browne of CQ University in Australia, whose research group found that the amount of wins required to show that one is doing better than chance is extremely high. The results are published in Springer's Journal of Gambling Studies.
Gamblers who participate in skill-oriented games such as poker and sports betting are motivated to win over the long-term, and some monitor their betting outcomes to evaluate their performance and proficiency. To investigate what levels of sustained returns would really be required to establish evidence of skill or expertise, Browne's team modelled a random strategy to simulate so-called 'naïve' play, in which equal bets were placed on randomly selected horses using a representative sample of 211 weekend races.
The results showed surprising volatility, even after a large number of repeated bets. After adjusting for the house advantage, a gambler would have to place over 10,000 bets in individual races with net returns exceeding nine percent to be reasonably considered an expert bettor. This means that for the vast majority of players, their historic records or data provide surprisingly little information regarding their chances of making a positive return in the future.
Browne says that even sophisticated and rational gamblers, assuming they have achieved moderately good returns over an extended period, are simply unable to recognize that their historical performance most likely occurred simply due to chance.
Browne explained, "Imagine you had bet on 1000 separate races, choosing horses carefully according to their merits, and were 'up' by 20 percent. It would be easy to conclude you had a winning system, or above-average skills. But counter to every intuition, you were probably just lucky." He ascribes such false beliefs among horseracing bettors to the combination of cognitive biases, and the strong volatility intrinsic to returns on race betting, labelling it a 'delusion of expertise.'
The findings have important implications for problem gambling, as delusions of expertise are likely to be most prevalent in skill-oriented games and in serious, otherwise rational, performance-tracking gamblers. Browne and his team say that the development of such fallacies and biases are shared between race handicapping and other nominally expert pursuits such as chartist exchange-rate speculation and professional poker.
"In any game where returns are highly volatile, and there is a reasonable expectation that skill plays a role, delusions of expertise may come into play," comments Browne, who adds, "In horse betting in particular, it appears that a gambler may easily be misled into believing that an effective winning strategy had been identified, when in fact it was due to chance alone."
It seems that it is intrinsically difficult for people to objectively evaluate their own performance under these conditions. Browne concludes, "Unfortunately, it appears that historical performance at the track is often either ambiguous, or positively misleading, for gamblers considering their own returns."
###
Browne, M. et al (2013). Delusions of Expertise: The High Standard of Proof Needed to Demonstrate Skills at Horserace Handicapping, Journal of Gambling Studies. DOI 10.1007/s10899-013-9420-7
The full-text article is available to journalists on request.
Think you're an expert bettor? You're probably wrong
Even rational gamblers can be deluded about how good they are at their game
2014-01-02
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
Scientists uncover image of muscular dystrophy defect & design targeted drug candidates
2014-01-02
Scientists uncover image of muscular dystrophy defect & design targeted drug candidates
JUPITER, FL, January 2, 2013 – Scientists from the Florida campus of The Scripps Research Institute have revealed an atomic-level view of a genetic defect that causes a ...
Atlas Mountains in Morocco are buoyed up by superhot rock, study finds
2014-01-02
Atlas Mountains in Morocco are buoyed up by superhot rock, study finds
The Atlas Mountains defy the standard model for mountain structure in which high topography must have deep roots for support, according to a new study from Earth scientists at USC.
In ...
Trapping insects by color: Will it work in Montana?
2014-01-02
Trapping insects by color: Will it work in Montana?
BOZEMAN, Mont. – Red and green traps attract more sweetpotato weevils than other colors, and a Montana State University researcher who made that discovery wants to know if Montana insects react the same way.
Gadi ...
New cell mechanism discovery key to stopping breast cancer metastasis
2014-01-02
New cell mechanism discovery key to stopping breast cancer metastasis
SALT LAKE CITY—Researchers from Huntsman Cancer Institute (HCI) at the University of Utah discovered a cellular mechanism that drives the spread of breast cancer to other parts of the body (metastasis), ...
Chinese herbal compound relieves inflammatory and neuropathic pain
2014-01-02
Chinese herbal compound relieves inflammatory and neuropathic pain
UCI study also shows novel analgesic to be nonaddictive
Irvine, Calif., Jan. 2, 2014 — A compound derived from a traditional Chinese herbal medicine has been found effective at alleviating pain, ...
The mouse that ROR'ed
2014-01-02
The mouse that ROR'ed
ROR1 oncogene combines with another to accelerate, worsen blood cancer
Researchers at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine report that an oncogene dubbed ROR1, found on chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) B cells ...
New MRI technique illuminates the wrist in motion
2014-01-02
New MRI technique illuminates the wrist in motion
(SACRAMENTO, Calif.) — If a picture is worth 1,000 words then a movie is worth far more, especially when it comes to diagnosing wrist problems.
UC Davis radiologists, medical physicists ...
Virginia Tech researchers find novice teen drivers easily fall into distraction, accidents
2014-01-02
Virginia Tech researchers find novice teen drivers easily fall into distraction, accidents
Cell phones, other distractions pose greater threat to teen drivers
Teens may begin their driving habits with great caution, but as months behind the wheel pass, they begin to multi-task ...
Novel noninvasive therapy prevents breast cancer formation in mice
2014-01-02
Novel noninvasive therapy prevents breast cancer formation in mice
Injectable therapy could help people avoid mastectomy
BOSTON – A novel breast-cancer therapy that partially reverses the cancerous state in cultured breast ...
Research into fruit fly cells could lead to cancer insights
2014-01-02
Research into fruit fly cells could lead to cancer insights
New research by scientists at the University of Exeter has shown that cells demonstrate remarkable flexibility and versatility when it comes to how they divide - a finding with potential links ...
LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:
Metabolism may unlock the secret to a deeper understanding of neurodegeneration
Resource-poor neighborhood conditions may increase gestational diabetes risk
Turning down the dial on inflammation to protect against lupus nephritis
Mailing at-home test kits most effective in getting people ages 45 to 49 to screen for colorectal cancer, UCLA study finds
It’s not just how many – it’s when: Global study reveals people judge a potential partner’s sexual history by timing, not total number
Fast food, including cheeseburgers and fried chicken, shouldn’t be sold in hospitals, say most Americans in new poll
UofL research shows combined exposure to alcohol and “forever chemicals” increases liver damage
Brown University neuroscientists help identify a biomarker for Alzheimer’s disease progression
Imperfect underground processes help filter wastewater in Florida Keys
Both flexibility and persistence make some birds successful in human-made environments
Biodiversity matters in every forest, but even more in wetter ones
Phase 3 study supports use of canagliflozin for type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents
Small protein, big impact: Insights into how bacteria stabilize a key outer membrane complex
Study finds gaps in evidence for air cleaning technologies designed to prevent respiratory infections
Study shows major health insurance gap for some adopted children
Midwestern butterfly count: Big data yields bad news and clues
New mega RNA virus may hold the key to mass oyster die-offs
Organized scientific fraud is growing at an alarming rate
A new alternative to opioids
Tracing brain chemistry across humanity’s family tree
Job opportunities are more important to refugees from Ukraine than social benefits
Major discovery of Ice Age bones in a Norwegian cave opens a window into the past
Revolutionizing lactation support and outcomes
New review highlights significant need for comprehensive care for gun violence survivors
Crop monitoring system utilizing IoT, AI and other tech showcased at ASABE
Simple algorithm paired with standard imaging tool could predict failure in lithium metal batteries
Can botox be used to alleviate pain in a jaw disorder?
Why “sleeping on it” may improve learning and memory
From faces to feelings: How children learn to read emotions
Pan Feng’s team advances inverse design of catalytic materials with topological AI
[Press-News.org] Think you're an expert bettor? You're probably wrongEven rational gamblers can be deluded about how good they are at their game