PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Real time forecast of Hurricane Sandy had track and intensity accuracy

2014-02-25
(Press-News.org) A real-time hurricane analysis and prediction system that effectively incorporates airborne Doppler radar information may accurately track the path, intensity and wind force in a hurricane, according to Penn State meteorologists. This system can also identify the sources of forecast uncertainty.

"For this particular study aircraft-based Doppler radar information was ingested into the system," said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology, Penn State. "Our predictions were comparable to or better than those made by operational global models."

Zhang and Erin B. Munsell, graduate student in meteorology, used The Pennsylvania State University real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF-EnKF) to analyze Hurricane Sandy. While Sandy made landfall on the New Jersey coast on the evening of Oct. 29, 2012, the analysis and forecast system began tracking on Oct. 21 and the Doppler radar data analyzed covers Oct. 26 through 28.

The researchers compared The WRF-EnKF predictions to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Besides the ability to effectively assimilate real-time Doppler radar information, the WRF-EnKF model also includes high-resolution cloud-permitting grids, which allow for the existence of individual clouds in the model.

"Our model predicted storm paths with 100 km -- 50 mile -- accuracy four to five days ahead of landfall for Hurricane Sandy," said Zhang. "We also had accurate predictions of Sandy's intensity."

The WRF-EnKF model also runs 60 storm predictions simultaneously as an ensemble, each with slightly differing initial conditions. The program runs on NOAA's dedicated computer, and the analysis was done on the Texas Advanced Computing Center computer because of the enormity of data collected.

To analyze the Hurricane Sandy forecast data, the researchers divided the 60 runs into groups -- good, fair and poor. This approach was able to isolate uncertainties in the model initial conditions, which are most prevalent on Oct. 26, when 10 of the predictions suggested that Sandy would not make landfall at all. By looking at this portion of the model, Zhang suggests that the errors occur because of differences in the initial steering level winds in the tropics that Sandy was embedded in, instead of a mid-latitude trough -- an area of relatively low atmospheric pressure -- ahead of Sandy's path.

"Though the mid-latitude system does not strongly influence the final position of Sandy, differences in the timing and location of its interactions with Sandy lead to considerable differences in rainfall forecasts, especially with respect to heavy precipitation over land," the researchers report in a recent issue of the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

By two days before landfall, the WRF-EnKF model was accurately predicting the hurricane's path with landfall in southern New Jersey, while the GFS model predicted a more northern landfall in New York and Connecticut, and the ECMWF model forecast landfall in northern New Jersey.

Hurricane Sandy is a good storm to analyze because its path was unusual among Atlantic tropical storms, which do not usually turn northwest into the mid-Atlantic or New England. While all three models did a fairly good job at predicting aspects of this hurricane, the WRF-EnKF model was very promising in predicting path, intensity and rainfall.

NOAA is currently evaluating the use of the WRF-EnKF system in storm prediction, and other researchers are using it to predict storm surge and risk analysis.

INFORMATION: The National Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and the Office of Naval Research supported this work. Yonghui Weng, a research associate in Zhang's group, performed the real-time WRF-EnKF runs.


ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

The only top 10 cancer where survival rates are falling

2014-02-25
Of the top 10 cancers in the UK, bladder cancer is only one where survival rates have been shown to be getting worse. New figures published this month in the Journal of Clinical Urology confirm in a study of cases of bladder cancer in England over a 19 year period (from 1990 until 2009) that survival rates here in the UK are falling and are worse than in than in other European countries with similar incidence rates. Shockingly, bladder cancer isn't a rare cancer that only affects a few people every year. In fact, bladder cancer is our 7th most common cancer (the 4th most ...

Study shows mentally ill more likely to be victims, not perpetrators, of violence

2014-02-25
New research shows that almost one-third of adults with mental illness are likely to be victims of violence within a six-month period, and that adults with mental illness who commit violence are most likely to do so in residential settings. The study also finds a strong correlation between being a victim of violence and committing a violent act. The work was done by researchers at North Carolina State University; RTI International; the University of California, Davis; Simon Fraser University; and Duke University. "We hear about the link between violence and mental illness ...

Anti-vaccine conspiracy theories may have 'detrimental consequences' for children's health

2014-02-25
A belief in anti-vaccine conspiracy theories may have significant and detrimental consequences for children's health, new research from the University of Kent has shown. Researchers Daniel Jolley and Dr Karen Douglas, of the University's School of Psychology, surveyed 89 parents about their views on anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and then asked them to indicate their intention to have a fictional child vaccinated. It was found that stronger belief in anti-vaccine conspiracy theories was associated with lower intention to vaccinate. In a second study, 188 participants ...

It's all water over the dam -- but how and when it falls has huge impact on salmon

Its all water over the dam -- but how and when it falls has huge impact on salmon
2014-02-25
RICHLAND, Wash. – By adjusting water discharges in ways designed to boost salmon productivity, officials at a dam in central Washington were able to more than triple the numbers of juvenile salmon downstream of the dam over a 30-year period, according to a study published Feb. 25 in the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. "This is one of the most productive populations of fall Chinook salmon anywhere in the Pacific Northwest," said Ryan Harnish, first author of the paper and a fish ecologist at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. ...

Teenage girl suffers second-degree burns in iPhone fire

2014-02-25
Teenage girl suffers second-degree burns in iPhone fire Article provided by Miller Schirger LLC Visit us at http://www.millerschirger.com A 13-year-old girl was treated for second-degree burns recently after her smartphone caught fire in her pocket while she was sitting in school. Although the exact cause of the fire has not yet been determined, some commentators have speculated that it may have been due to a dangerous defect in the phone itself. A popping sound, then smoke According to a report by PCMag, the eighth-grader was carrying the two-month-old iPhone ...

The Texas bad faith insurance claim

2014-02-25
The Texas bad faith insurance claim Article provided by Kustoff & Phipps, L.L.P. Visit us at http://www.kplegal.com Insurance permeates many aspects of our lives. At a minimum, most Texans have health, house or renter, car and life insurance. Long-term care insurance pays for nursing home and similar care. Malpractice or professional liability insurance protects professionals against claims of negligent or reckless professional conduct. Most business owners need liability, property, business interruption coverage, and more depending on the unique needs of their ...

Texas Attorney General challenges court's overturning sex crime law

2014-02-25
Texas Attorney General challenges court's overturning sex crime law Article provided by Law Office of Larry P. McDougal Visit us at http://www.larrymcdougal.com Courts in Texas recently decided to strike down a law that addressed online chatting in certain situations. The law banned online chatting between adults and minors that was deemed sexually explicit. Those opposed to the law argued it was a violation of free-speech rights, and the court unanimously agreed. The state's attorney general is challenging this ruling, leading to a type of "legal turf war" ...

Landlord may be liable for trampoline and swimming pool accident

2014-02-25
Landlord may be liable for trampoline and swimming pool accident Article provided by Law Offices of Aleixo and Murray, P.C. Visit us at http://www.aleixoandmurray.com Under "premises liability" law, the owner of land may be held liable under certain circumstances for injuries that are caused by dangerous conditions on the property. While this liability generally does not extend to open and obvious dangers, a property owner may still be found liable where the landowner should have anticipated that the dangerous condition could cause physical harm, even ...

Dealing with creditors in Florida after the death of a loved one

2014-02-25
Dealing with creditors in Florida after the death of a loved one Article provided by The Law Office of Silverman, Vorhis & Mack Visit us at http://www.flstatewideprobate.com When you and your family are still reeling from the loss of a family member, the last issue you want to deal with is outstanding debts of the decedent. Unfortunately, creditors may engage in unethical and, sometimes, illegal tactics in attempts to collect from unsuspecting family members. When a loved one dies, it is very difficult to know what to do. During the overwhelming mourning ...

Trooper's stop of vehicle for speeding using pace method was invalid

2014-02-25
Trooper's stop of vehicle for speeding using pace method was invalid Article provided by Edward R. La Rue Visit us at http://www.edwardrlarue.com In State v. Jarosz, the Eleventh District Court of Appeals of Ohio upheld the trial court's ruling suppressing evidence in a case involving speeding and drunk-driving charges. The appellate court agreed that the evidence did not adequately prove that the officer had reasonable suspicion to stop the defendant's vehicle for speeding, and therefore the stop was invalid, where the officer failed to keep a uniform distance ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Underserved youth less likely to visit emergency department for concussion in Ontario, study finds

‘Molecular shield’ placed in the nose may soon treat common hay fever trigger

Beetles under climate stress lay larger male eggs: Wolbachia infection drives adaptive reproduction strategy in response to rising temperature and CO₂

Groundbreaking quantum study puts wave-particle duality to work

Weekly injection could be life changing for Parkinson’s patients

Toxic metals linked to impaired growth in infants in Guatemala

Being consistently physically active in adulthood linked to 30–40% lower risk of death

Nerve pain drug gabapentin linked to increased dementia, cognitive impairment risks

Children’s social care involvement common to nearly third of UK mums who died during perinatal period

‘Support, not judgement’: Study explores links between children’s social care involvement and maternal deaths

Ethnic minority and poorer children more likely to die in intensive care

Major progress in fertility preservation after treatment for cancer of the lymphatic system

Fewer complications after additional ultrasound in pregnant women who feel less fetal movement

Environmental impact of common pesticides seriously underestimated

The Milky Way could be teeming with more satellite galaxies than previously thought

New study reveals surprising reproductive secrets of a cricket-hunting parasitoid fly

Media Tip Sheet: Symposia at ESA2025

NSF CAREER Award will power UVA engineer’s research to improve drug purification

Tiny parasitoid flies show how early-life competition shapes adult success

New coating for glass promises energy-saving windows

Green spaces boost children’s cognitive skills and strengthen family well-being

Ancient trees dying faster than expected in Eastern Oregon

Study findings help hone precision of proven CVD risk tool

Most patients with advanced melanoma who received pre-surgical immunotherapy remain alive and disease free four years later

Introducing BioEmu: A generative AI Model that enables high-speed and accurate prediction of protein structural ensembles

Replacing mutated microglia with healthy microglia halts progression of genetic neurological disease in mice and humans

New research shows how tropical plants manage rival insect tenants by giving them separate ‘flats’

Condo-style living helps keep the peace inside these ant plants

Climate change action could dramatically limit rising UK heatwave deaths

Annual heat-related deaths projected to increase significantly due to climate and population change

[Press-News.org] Real time forecast of Hurricane Sandy had track and intensity accuracy