PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

South Africa: the rising temperatures will cost up to 20% of per capita GDP

2021-02-02
(Press-News.org) Temperature rise due to climate change has negatively affected labour productivity in the past decades and will keep damaging it, potentially at a higher extent than what has been estimated in the literature up to now. In South Africa, a future scenario with severe climate change will feature a reduction of per capita GDP of up to 20% by the end of the century, compared to an idealized future without the impacts of a changing climate.

This is what emerges from the study "Climate change and development in South Africa: the impact of rising temperatures on economic productivity and labour availability", coordinated by the CMCC Foundation and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE) and conducted in collaboration with the Athens University of Economics and Business, recently published in the Journal Climate and Development.

In the first phase of the research, through the analysis of empirical data, researchers analysed how temperature change driven by climate change has affected the productivity of the labour in South Africa in the past. They used a longitudinal survey of South African households conducted between 2008 and 2015 to obtain key information about the relationship between weekly maximum temperatures and working hours in the same week.

The results show that climate stressors have differentiated impacts on workers from various sectors. Increasing temperatures reduce the availability of workers in industries with high exposure to heat, such as farming, construction, fishing and mining: the so-called "low-skilled labour". On the other hand, workers of sectors like the manufacturing, or office work ("high-skilled"), which are conducted indoor, are less affected by the temperature rise.

"We wanted to understand whether temperature changes affect how much people can work in a given week and if those who work inside have a climate advantage" explains Dr. Shouro Dasgupta, a researcher at the CMCC Foundation and EIEE, co-author of the study. "And this is something the findings confirmed: labour availability initially increases with temperature until it reaches its peak and then decreases as temperature increases beyond the maximum point. However, the optimal maximum temperature maximizing weekly labour supply is 26.2?C for low-skilled workers while it is 28.2?C for high-skilled workers. Those who work inside can work until the temperature is a little higher, because they are less exposed to heat".

The second step of the study was to use these empirical data to run an Overlapping Generations model to investigate the future and project the extent to which the expected warming will affect labour productivity in South Africa. "In the literature, we find two research approaches that are clearly separate from each other" affirms Dr. Soheil Shayegh, a researcher at the CMCC Foundation and EIEE, the lead author of the paper. "One approach relies on empirical data and builds statistical relationships between indicators based on the data. This is what we used in the first phase of our research, building on survey data from the past to establish statistical relationships between temperature and labour supply. The other approach uses Overlapping Generations models, mathematical models that we use to forecast the future of our economies based on assumptions about decision-makers' behaviour and choices, and usually not based on forecasted data. In this research, by marrying these two methodologies and building on survey data, we were able to answer a set of complex questions about the effect of climate change on labour markets that are interesting not just for South Africa, but probably for every country" says Shayegh.

The decrease in labour availability has a ripple effect on other parts of the economy, from wages' variations to the productivity of outputs, the researchers explain. The model suggests that, by the end of the century, the wage gap between high-skilled and low-skilled labour will reduce, with the lowest skilled labour receiving more relative wages. This is a consequence of the decrease in the relative availability of low-skilled to high-skilled labour due to the rising temperature, which increases the scarcity (and, consequently, the salary) of low-skilled workers.

"The wage gap is closing because the wages of low-skilled workers are improving, and this is good news. But when you step back and look at the bigger picture, in the whole economy, something else is happening" explains Shayegh. "We see that economic damages are much larger. Climate change is not only impacting the labour supply: it is also damaging the productivity of all sectors".

In summary, increasing demand for low-skilled labour, coupled with a reduction in economic productivity due to climate change, reduces the wage gap between high-skilled and low-skilled labour but reduces overall output per adult. Under a severe climate scenario, the study shows that GDP per capita drops by about 20% by the end of the century, compared to the baseline case without climate change.

"It is important to note that we only considered the impact of climate change through gradual rising of average and maximum temperatures" specifies Dasgupta. "Other climate factors such as precipitation, sea-level rise, or climate shocks such as floods or droughts are not considered in this study. Therefore, it is safe to assume that we have provided a conservative estimate of the climate change damages on productivity and welfare - in a scenario without climate action".

INFORMATION:

For more information:

The paper: Soheil Shayegh, Vassiliki Manoussi & Shouro Dasgupta (2020): Climate change and development in South Africa: the impact of rising temperatures on economic productivity and labour availability, Climate and Development,
https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1857675



ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Coral decline -- is sunscreen a scapegoat?

Coral decline -- is sunscreen a scapegoat?
2021-02-02
Many household products contain ingredients to protect them against sun damage. These UV filters are found in plastics, paints and textiles, as well as personal care products such as sunscreens and moisturizers. UV filters are entering the aquatic environment in rivers, lakes and oceans. Consider for a moment a beach goer swimming in the ocean or rain washing over plastic playground equipment and running into a stormwater drain - either directly or indirectly, UV filters end up making their way to a waterway. UV filters are chemicals that work by either physically blocking or absorbing UV rays. There are two main types of UV filters: inorganic forms, which contain metal particles, ...

Say goodbye to the dots and dashes to enhance optical storage media

Say goodbye to the dots and dashes to enhance optical storage media
2021-02-02
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - Purdue University innovators have created technology aimed at replacing Morse code with colored "digital characters" to modernize optical storage. They are confident the advancement will help with the explosion of remote data storage during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Morse code has been around since the 1830s. The familiar dots and dashes system may seem antiquated given the amount of information needed to be acquired, digitally archived and rapidly accessed every day. But those same basic dots and dashes are still used in many optical media to aid in storage. A new technology developed at Purdue is aimed at ...

US adults report highest stress level since early days of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021-02-02
As the U.S. confronts a bitter election season, political unrest and violence, a shaky economy, and a soaring death toll due to COVID-19, 84% of U.S. adults say the country has serious societal issues that we need to address, according to a new poll. At the same time, 9 in 10 adults say they hope that the country moves toward unity, according to Stress in AmericaTM: January 2021 Stress Snapshot, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of the American Psychological Association. The survey found that the average reported stress level during the prior month was 5.6, (on a scale from 1 to 10 where ...

In survey of those with uncontrolled asthma, half smoked cannabis

2021-02-02
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL (Feb. 2, 2021) - As the number of states increase where medical and recreational cannabis use is legal, so does the importance that physicians discuss with patients the effects of cannabis on those with asthma. A new survey in Annals of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology, the scientific journal of the American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology, shows that of those who used cannabis, about half smoked it while a third vaped - both "inhalation routes" likely to affect one's lungs. "It surprised me that over half of the cannabis users in this study who have asthma were smoking it," said Joanna Zeiger, PhD, principal investigator for the study. "And further, of those with uncontrolled asthma, ...

Traffic noise makes mating crickets less picky

2021-02-02
A new study shows that the mating behaviour of crickets is significantly affected by traffic noise and other man-made sounds - a finding that could have implications for the future success of the species. The research, published in the journal Behavioral Ecology, was carried out at Anglia Ruskin University (ARU), and involved studying the mating choices of female field crickets (Gryllus bimaculatus) under different acoustic conditions. When a female cricket is nearby, male crickets will perform a courtship song by rubbing their wings together. The song is energetically costly to produce and so contains ...

Latest review shows intensive care mortality from COVID-19 continued to fall in 2020, but improvement is slowing

2021-02-02
A meta-analysis of global studies published in Anaesthesia (a journal of the Association of Anaesthetists) shows that intensive care morality from COVID-19 has continued to fall since the start of the pandemic, but the improvement is slowing and may have plateaued. The study is by Professor Tim Cook (Consultant in Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine, Royal United Hospitals Bath NHS Foundation Trust, Bath, UK, and Honorary Professor, School of Medicine, University of Bristol, UK) and colleagues. A previous meta-analysis* by Cook and colleagues, published in July, 2020, concluded that overall mortality of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units (ICUs) has fallen from almost 60% at the end of March 2020 to 42% at the end of May 2020 -- a relative decrease of around one third. This ...

COVID-19 intensive care mortality in Sweden lower than in many studies from other countries

2021-02-02
New research reveals that the COVID-19 intensive care (ICU) mortality rate in Sweden was lower during the first wave of the pandemic than in many studies from other countries. And while analysis of individual underlying conditions found they were linked to mortality, an analysis looking at all these variables together found COVID-19 mortality in intensive care was not associated with underlying conditions, except for chronic lung disease. This new study did, however, find that, like previous research, mortality was driven by age, severity of COVID-19 disease and the presence and ...

Astronomers spot bizarre activity from one of the strongest magnets in the Universe

Astronomers spot bizarre activity from one of the strongest magnets in the Universe
2021-02-02
Astronomers from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery (OzGrav) and CSIRO have just observed bizarre, never-seen-before behaviour from a 'radio-loud' magnetar--a rare type of neutron star and one of the strongest magnets in the Universe. Their new findings, published today in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS), suggest magnetars have more complex magnetic fields than previously thought - which may challenge theories of how they are born and evolve over time. Magnetars are a rare type of rotating neutron star with some of the most powerful magnetic fields in the Universe. Astronomers have detected only thirty of these objects in and around the Milky ...

Mathematical method developed to predict cancer and drug-specific immunotherapy efficacy

2021-02-02
HOUSTON-(Feb. 1, 2021) - Houston Methodist researchers have developed a mathematical model to predict how specific cancers will respond to immunotherapy treatments, thus enhancing chances for successful treatments from a wide variety of cancer-immunotherapy drug combinations. The results were published last month in Nature Biomedical Engineering in collaboration with researchers at MD Anderson Cancer Center. Immunotherapy activates patients' immune systems to recognize and attack their cancers, leading to higher, more targeted kill rates and fewer side effects than chemotherapy, radiation and other therapies. While this technology is a significant advance in fighting cancer, it works only with some cancer ...

February special issue of SLAS Discovery focuses on hit discovery methodologies

2021-02-02
Oak Brook, IL - The February edition of SLAS Discovery is a Special Issue on Hit Discovery Methodologies edited by Mark Wigglesworth, Ph.D., (Medicines Discovery Catapult, Stockport, EN, UK) and Peter Hodder, Ph.D. (Amgen, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA). The focus of this Special Issue is to highlight the use of hit discovery methodologies and technologies and their usage in both small molecule and large molecule drug discovery. The February issue exemplifies how technologies, both new and existing, have been applied successfully to find hits. Additionally, the issue houses a list of the most downloaded articles from SLAS journals, many of which ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Pink skies

Monkeys are world’s best yodellers - new research

Key differences between visual- and memory-led Alzheimer’s discovered

% weight loss targets in obesity management – is this the wrong objective?

An app can change how you see yourself at work

NYC speed cameras take six months to change driver behavior, effects vary by neighborhood, new study reveals

New research shows that propaganda is on the rise in China

Even the richest Americans face shorter lifespans than their European counterparts, study finds

Novel genes linked to rare childhood diarrhea

New computer model reveals how Bronze Age Scandinavians could have crossed the sea

Novel point-of-care technology delivers accurate HIV results in minutes

Researchers reveal key brain differences to explain why Ritalin helps improve focus in some more than others

Study finds nearly five-fold increase in hospitalizations for common cause of stroke

Study reveals how alcohol abuse damages cognition

Medicinal cannabis is linked to long-term benefits in health-related quality of life

Microplastics detected in cat placentas and fetuses during early pregnancy

Ancient amphibians as big as alligators died in mass mortality event in Triassic Wyoming

Scientists uncover the first clear evidence of air sacs in the fossilized bones of alvarezsaurian dinosaurs: the "hollow bones" which help modern day birds to fly

Alcohol makes male flies sexy

TB patients globally often incur "catastrophic costs" of up to $11,329 USD, despite many countries offering free treatment, with predominant drivers of cost being hospitalization and loss of income

Study links teen girls’ screen time to sleep disruptions and depression

Scientists unveil starfish-inspired wearable tech for heart monitoring

Footprints reveal prehistoric Scottish lagoons were stomping grounds for giant Jurassic dinosaurs

AI effectively predicts dementia risk in American Indian/Alaska Native elders

First guideline on newborn screening for cystic fibrosis calls for changes in practice to improve outcomes

Existing international law can help secure peace and security in outer space, study shows

Pinning down the process of West Nile virus transmission

UTA-backed research tackles health challenges across ages

In pancreatic cancer, a race against time

Targeting FGFR2 may prevent or delay some KRAS-mutated pancreatic cancers

[Press-News.org] South Africa: the rising temperatures will cost up to 20% of per capita GDP