(Press-News.org) Herndon, Va. (May 20, 2021) - The international journal Risk Analysis has published a timely special issue for May 2021, "Global Systemic Risk and Resilience for Novel Coronavirus and COVID-19." Featuring 11 papers written for this issue over the past year, the collection represents a sampling of insights and viewpoints from scholars across risk sciences and resilience analytics to guide decision-making and operations related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The 11 papers address the breadth of risk sciences represented by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), including risk perception, risk and resilience, human health and infection risk, and risk management strategies and economic evaluation. From a systems perspective, the multidisciplinary expertise of the SRA and its specialty groups can offer new tools for public health practitioners, infrastructure owners/operators, and policymakers to coordinate global and local, context-specific interventions, with expanded access to health information and services.
The introduction to this special issue is written by Special Issue Co-Editors, Desheng Dash Wu of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stockholm University; Jade Mitchell of Michigan State University; and James H. Lambert of the University of Virginia. The Special Issue Co-Editors wrote the Call for Papers in January of 2020, solicited reviewers from across the Society and elsewhere, and provided the Editor-in-Chief with recommendations for the submitted manuscripts.
Here are the original research papers and perspectives included in the issue:
- The Impact of Trust and Risk Perception on the Acceptance of Measures to Reduce COVID-19 Cases, by Michael Siegrist, Larissa Luchsinger, and Angela Bearth
Researchers conducted a survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland at the peak of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the first wave of infections in that country (March-April 2020). Their results suggest that perceived risks are important drivers for the acceptance of the government's implemented measures to control COVID-19 and for more precautionary behavior.
- Analyzing the Risk to COVID-19 Infection Using Remote Sensing and GIS, by Shruti Kanga, Gowhar Meraj, Sudhanshu, Majid Farooq, M.S. Nathawa, and Suraj Kumar Singh
This study proposes a risk-based assessment framework for analyzing risk of high transmission and prevalence for COVID-19 in spatial areas -- using integrated hazard and vulnerability components associated with the pandemic to guide effective risk mitigation. Focused on a region of Maharashtra, the study aims to serve as a baseline study to be replicated in other parts of India or the world to help eradicate the increased threat of COVID-19 in at-risk populations.
- Reinventing Cloth Masks in the Face of Pandemics, by Stephen Salter
This study points out that countries could rapidly implement Effective Fiber Mask Programs (EFMPs) to use local resources to mass-produce effective and affordable cloth masks, and to engage the public in their correct use during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Fast and Frugal: Information Processing Related to The Coronavirus Pandemic, by Jody Chin Sing Wong, Janet Zheng Yang, Zhuling Liu, David Lee, and Zhiying Yue
This paper establishes how two different information processing modes are influenced by individuals' responsibility attribution, discrete negative emotions, and risk perception. The results revealed that information processing styles seem to be determined by social judgment surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.
- A Novel Causal Risk-Based Decision-Making Methodology: The Case of Coronavirus, by Stavros K. Stavroglou and Bilal Ayyub
The authors propose a novel risk-based, decision-making methodology capable of unveiling causal relationships between pairs of variables. This methodology offers a basis for identifying potential scenarios and consequences of the ongoing 2020 pandemic by drawing on weather variables to examine the causal impact of changing weather on the trend of daily coronavirus cases.
- Optimal Investment in Prevention and Recovery for Mitigating Epidemic Risks, by C. Derrick Huang, Milad Baghersad, Ravi S. Behara, and Christopher W. Zobel
Researchers built a mathematical model to optimize investments into two types of measures for mitigating the risks of epidemic spread: prevention/containment and treatment/recovery.
- Exploring Risks of Human Challenge Trials for COVID-19, by David Manheim
This study introduces an interactive model for exploring some risks of a SARS-COV-2 dosing study (a prerequisite for COVID-19 challenge trials). The risk estimates they use are based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis model which can incorporate new data on infection fatality risks (IFRs) to patients, and infer rates of hospitalization.
- Challenges Associated with the Response to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic in Africa - An African Diaspora Perspective, by Andre M. N. Renzaho
This paper discusses how lessons learned during the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa help to mitigate the likelihood of a long-term devastating effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the African continent.
- Action Levels for SARS-COV-2 in Air: Preliminary Approach, by Charles N. Haas
In this study, the dose-response curve for Coronavirus 229E is used to develop a preliminary risk-based exposure criteria for SARS-CoV-2 via the respiratory portals of entry.
- Do the Benefits of COVID-19 Policies Exceed the Costs? Exploring Uncertainties in the Age-VSL Relationship, by Lisa A. Robinson, Ryan Sullivan, and Jason F. Shogren
This study explores the implications of theory and empirical studies, which suggest that the relationship between age and value per statistical life is uncertain. The researchers found that, when applied to the U.S. age distribution of COVID-19 deaths, their approaches result in average value per statistical life estimates from $4.47 million to $10.63 million.
- On Ambiguity Reduction and the Role of Decision Analysis During the Pandemic, by David C. Rode and Paul S. Fischbeck
Experts propose that scarce testing resources should be diverted away from confirmatory analysis of symptomatic people - as lab diagnosis appears to have little decision value in treatment choice over clinical diagnosis in patients with symptoms. In contrast, the exploratory use of testing resources to reduce ambiguity in estimates of the base rate of infection appears to have significant value and great practical import for public policy purposes. (These findings highlight the important role of decision analysts in responding to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic.)
INFORMATION:
About SRA
The Society for Risk Analysis is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides an open forum for all those interested in risk analysis. SRA was established in 1980 and has published Risk Analysis: An International Journal, the leading scholarly journal in the field, continuously since 1981. For more information, visit http://www.sra.org.
A University of Otago study has revealed how earthquake upheaval has affected New Zealand's coastal species.
Lead author Dr Felix Vaux, of the Department of Zoology, says earthquakes are typically considered devastating events for people and the environment, but the positive opportunities that they can create for wildlife are often overlooked.
For the Marsden-funded study, published in Journal of Phycology, the researchers sequenced DNA from 288 rimurapa/bull-kelp plants from 28 places across central New Zealand.
"All specimens from the North Island were expected to be the species Durvillaea antarctica, but unexpectedly 10 samples from four sites were ...
WASHINGTON--Yellowstone National Park is famous for harsh winters but a new study shows summers are also getting harsher, with August 2016 ranking as one of the hottest summers in the last 1,250 years.
The new study drew upon samples of living and dead Engelmann spruce trees collected at high elevations in and around Yellowstone National Park to extend the record of maximum summer temperatures back centuries beyond instrumental records. The findings were published in Geophysical Research Letters, AGU's journal for high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences.
The ...
Palo Alto, CA--In a new study, researchers found that recreational boats and high-speed ferries contribute significant underwater noise in San Francisco Bay, a highly urbanized coastline that is increasingly becoming a stop along the migratory routes of gray and humpback whales and home to bottlenose dolphins and harbor porpoises.
The study is the first of its kind to use radar to track boats not broadcasting information through the Automatic Identification System (AIS), a navigation safety system required onboard large commercial ships. The findings add to the growing evidence that smaller vessels, ...
Durham, NC -- Bone marrow failure due to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a significant factor behind the disease's high rate of morbidity and mortality. Previous studies in mice suggest that AML cells inhibit healthy hematopoietic (blood) stem and progenitor cells (HSPC). A study released in STEM CELLS adds to this extent of knowledge by showing how secreted cell factors, in particular a protein called transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGFβ1), leads to a breakdown in the production of healthy blood cells (a process called hematopoiesis) in humans.
The study's findings indicate that blocking TGFβ1 could improve ...
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 20, 2021 - As Congress considers legislation to reform prescription drug pricing, a new analysis conducted by the West Health Policy Center and released by its Council for Informed Drug Spending Analysis (CIDSA) estimates that the Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act (H.R. 3) could result in hundreds of billions of dollars in lower commercial health insurance costs by 2030.These savings would come from a $195 billion reduction in employer costs and $98 billion in savings for workers.
The non-profit, non-partisan West Health Policy Center engaged the actuarial firm Milliman, to analyze the impact of the legislation on stakeholders. Using Milliman's analysis and other data sources West Health ...
In spite of decades of research, cancer remains an enigma. Conventional wisdom holds that cancer is driven by random mutations that create aberrant cells that run amok in the body.
In a new paper published this week in the journal BioEssays, Arizona and Australian researchers challenge this model by proposing that cancer is a type of genetic throwback, that progresses via a series of reversions to ancestral forms of life. In contrast with the conventional model, the distinctive capabilities of cancer cells are not primarily generated by mutations, the researchers claim, but ...
Protective immune memory--through B cells, which make antibodies, and/or T cells, which in the case of CD8+ T cells can kill virus-infected cells--can be induced by identical but also by related viruses. Related to the COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2, there are four common cold coronaviruses (CCCoVs) that together cause ~20% of common cold infections: OC43, HKU1, 229E, and NL63. Most adults have been infected with CCCoVs multiple times in their lives. Whether or not meaningful CCCoV-induced anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies exist remains a matter of debate. Meanwhile, the generation of T cell memory should depend ...
Syracuse, N.Y. - The COVID-19 death rate for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) is higher than the general population in several states across the U.S., according to a new study published in Disability and Health Journal.
The research team that conducted the study analyzed data from 12 U.S. jurisdictions: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Washington, D.C.
The death rates were higher in all jurisdictions for those with IDD who live in congregate settings such as residential group homes. The results for ...
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. -- A new study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the USDA's Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) and RTI International (RTI) projects that global chronic and hidden hunger will increase the overall years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lived with disability, also known as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), globally by over 30 million by 2050 relative to 2010. Expected impacts of climate change on the availability and access to nutritious food will exacerbate this change in DALYs by almost 10 percent.
Researchers published the findings in an article in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, ...
Data will support BLA filing for afamitresgene autoleucel next year -
Responses observed across a broad range of antigen expression -
Initial safety and durability are encouraging -
PHILADELPHIA, PA., and OXFORDSHIRE, U.K., May 20, 2021 -- Adaptimmune Therapeutics plc (Nasdaq:ADAP), a leader in cell therapy to treat cancer, will report initial data from its Phase 2 SPEARHEAD-1 trial, with afamitresgene autoleucel (afami-cel, formerly ADP-A2M4), at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) congress. Full abstracts were released online today. Data will be presented in an oral presentation by Dr. Sandra D'Angelo of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (Abstract #11504) on June 4th.
"Patients are seeing substantial ...
