(Press-News.org) Climate change will make outbreaks of West Nile virus more likely in the UK within the next 20-30 years, scientists say.
West Nile virus is spread by mosquitoes and has no vaccine. Most people have no symptoms, but it can cause serious neurological disease.
Scientists from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS) and the University of Glasgow developed a new model to determine the risk of a West Nile virus outbreak in the UK.
They found the risk is low for the next two to three decades, but will increase as temperatures rise.
Dr Steven White, a theoretical ecologist at UKCEH, said: "Knowing if or when a new disease will affect us is vitally important.
"West Nile virus is currently absent in the UK, but we do harbour the Culex pipiens mosquito, which can transmit the disease and potentially lead to spill-over into humans.
"West Nile virus is now endemic in Italy and there have been outbreaks in Germany, so it is moving into more temperate climates.
"Our model shows that the risk will steadily increase and that future outbreaks are plausible in the UK."
The team's mathematical model looked at the effects of temperature on the biological processes affecting the Culex pipiens mosquito population in the UK. They were able to capture how these seasonal changes might interact with faster replication of the virus under higher temperatures to drive outbreaks.
Dr David Ewing from BioSS, formerly a UKCEH PhD student when most of the research was carried out, said: "Our model shows the predicted risk of an outbreak increases substantially if the biting season goes on longer, or if new viral strains are introduced that replicate at a higher rate than the ones already studied.
"Most other approaches are simplified, but we've built in complex biological relationships. This model could be adapted to look at other viruses and diseases, or other mosquito or insect species."
Dr Ewing says the study shouldn't be cause for alarm, but to help the UK prepare. "While there's relatively little immediate danger, we can take steps to prepare for future outbreaks.
This could be as simple as ensuring doctors are aware of the symptoms, testing and who's most at risk of becoming seriously ill."
The research was reported in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface - DOI: doi/10.1098/rsif.2021.0049
INFORMATION:
Notes to editors
About West Nile virus
(From the World Health Organisation)
* West Nile virus can cause a fatal neurological disease in humans.
* However, approximately 80% of people who are infected will not show any symptoms.
* West Nile virus is mainly transmitted to people through the bites of infected mosquitoes.
* The virus can cause severe disease and death in horses.
* Vaccines are available for use in horses but not yet available for people.
* Birds are the natural hosts of West Nile virus.
* It is commonly found in Africa, Europe, the Middle East, North America and West Asia. WNV is maintained in nature in a cycle involving transmission between birds and mosquitoes. Humans, horses and other mammals can be infected.
About the Culex pipiens mosquito
* Culex pipiens is the most common mosquito species in the UK.
* In more northerly latitudes, such as the UK, they mainly feed on birds, not humans.
* Only females feed on blood (male Culex pipiens consume carbohydrate food sources) and are most active around sunset.
* Mosquito population levels tend to increase over the summer months, particularly in hot and wet summers which facilitate faster development and an increase in breeding sites.
* Over winter in the UK, the mosquito species stops taking blood meals and instead survives on sugary food sources as they enter diapause (akin to hibernation) as adults, inhabiting sheltered locations.
* The species is found in both temperate and tropical climates.
* Alongside West Nile virus, Culex pipiens are carriers of other diseases such as avian malaria.
About the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology is a centre for excellence in environmental science across water, land and air. Our 500 scientists work to understand the environment, how it sustains life and the human impact on it - so that together, people and nature can prosper.
We have a long history of investigating, monitoring and modelling environmental change, and our science makes a positive difference in the world. The issues our science addresses include: air pollution, biodiversity, biosecurity, chemical risks, extreme weather events, droughts, floods, greenhouse gas emissions, land use, soil health, sustainable agriculture, sustainable ecosystems, sustainable macronutrient use, and water resources management.
The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology is a strategic delivery partner for the Natural Environment Research Council, part of UK Research and Innovation.
http://www.ceh.ac.uk END
The drug diABZI -- which activates the body's innate immune response -- was highly effective in preventing severe COVID-19 in mice that were infected with SARS-CoV-2, according to scientists in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. The findings, published this month in Science Immunology, suggest that diABZI could also treat other respiratory coronaviruses.
"Few drugs have been identified as game-changers in blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection. This paper is the first to show that activating an early immune response therapeutically with a single dose is a promising strategy for controlling the virus, including the South African variant ...
What The Study Did: Rates of antispike antibody response to a messenger RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in Israeli patients with cancer who are undergoing systemic treatment compared with healthy controls were evaluated in this study.
Authors: Salomon M. Stemmer, M.D., of the Rabin Medical Center in Petah Tikva, Israel, is the corresponding author.
To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/
(doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2021.2155)
Editor's Note: The article includes conflict of interest disclosures. Please see the article for additional information, ...
What The Study Did: This study evaluates whether there are differences in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and antibody levels in patients with cancer compared with health care workers in Japan.
Authors: Tatsuya Yoshida, M.D., Ph.D., of the National Cancer Center Hospital in Tokyo, is the corresponding author.
To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/
(doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2021.2159)
Editor's Note: The article includes conflict of interest and funding/support disclosures. Please see ...
What The Study Did: Socioeconomic disparities in respiratory health over the past six decades in the United States are described in this study.
Authors: Adam W. Gaffney, M.D., of the Cambridge Health Alliance in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is the corresponding author.
To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/
(doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.2441)
Editor's Note: The article includes conflicts of interest disclosures. Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.
# # ...
What The Study Did: Study results suggest that reinfections are rare events and that patients who have recovered from COVID-19 have a lower risk of reinfection. However, the observation ended before SARS-CoV-2 variants began to spread, and it is unknown how well natural immunity to the wild-type virus will protect against variants. .
Authors: Nicola Mumoli, M.D., of the Ospedale Fornaroli in Magenta, Italy, is the corresponding author.
To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/
(doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.2959)
Editor's ...
What The Study Did: This survey study examined the associations of having an incarcerated immediate or extended family member with perceived well-being and change in projected life expectancy among adults in the United States.
Authors: Ram Sundaresh, M.D., M.S., of the University of California, Los Angeles, is the corresponding author.
To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/
(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.11821)
Editor's Note: The article includes conflicts of interest and funding/support disclosures. Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict ...
What The Study Did: Researchers estimated the extent Medicare Part B medical services would have been subject to prior authorization under private insurance coverage policies and calculated the associated spending.
Authors: Aaron L. Schwartz, M.D., Ph.D., of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, is the corresponding author.
To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/
(doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.0859)
Editor's Note: The article includes conflict of interest and funding/support disclosures. Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author ...
What The Study Did: Researchers examined social connectedness among Medicare beneficiaries during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Authors: Wesley John Talcott, M.D., M.B.A., the Yale School of Medicine in New Haven, Connecticut, is the corresponding author.
To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/
(doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.2348)
Editor's Note: The article includes conflict of interest disclosures. Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.
INFORMATION:
Media advisory: The full study is linked to this news release.
Embed this link to provide your readers free ...
As hospitals, insurance companies and policy makers seek to improve healthcare quality and reduce rising medical costs, one important metric used to assess clinicians hinges on how patients feel about their healthcare experience. Many healthcare providers and policy makers fear that increased pressure to please patients -- and ensure high satisfaction ratings as a result -- could lead to overuse of low-value care that doesn't provide any clinical benefit while unnecessarily ratcheting up medical bills.
But new research from the University of Chicago and Harvard Medical School may alleviate some of those concerns. The study, published May 28 in END ...
New research results for patients with breast and HPV-associated throat cancers are the highlights among 23 presentations by ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group researchers at the 2021 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, occurring virtually June 4-8. The National Cancer Institute (NCI), part of the National Institutes of Health, funded these studies.
Breast Cancer
Platinum chemotherapy fails in phase III trial for triple-negative breast cancer, basal-like subtype
Abstract 605: About 80% of triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC) are a subtype called 'basal-like.' ...
