PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Study projects over 14 million preventable deaths by 2030 if USAID defunding continues

USAID funding helped save 91 million lives over the past 20 years—new research warns that recent U.S. aid cuts could now put that progress at risk

2025-06-30
(Press-News.org)

A new study published in The Lancet has raised urgent concerns about the global health consequences of recent cuts to U.S. foreign aid. The study, coordinated by researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), together with the Institute of Collective Health of the Federal University of Bahia (ISC-UFBA), the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), and the Manhiça Centre for Health Research (CISM), among others, estimates that 91 million deaths were prevented between 2001 and 2021 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) thanks to programs supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest funding agency for humanitarian and development aid worldwide. However, recent U.S. foreign aid cuts could reverse this progress and lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including over 4.5 million children under five.

“These findings come at a critical moment,” said Davide Rasella, ICREA Research Professor at ISGlobal and coordinator of the study. “The 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), taking place this week in Seville, Spain, is a key opportunity to realign global financing with the real needs on the ground. If we want to achieve the SDGs, we cannot afford to dismantle funding mechanisms—like USAID—that have already proven to save millions of lives. Now is the time to scale up, not scale back.”

91 million lives saved

The researchers analysed data from 133 countries and combined two approaches: a retrospective evaluation covering the years 2001 to 2021, and forecasting models projecting impacts through 2030. They used statistical models that accounted for factors such as population, income, education, and health systems to estimate the effect of USAID funding on mortality, also looking at differences by age group and cause of death. Finally, they used microsimulation models to estimate how many additional deaths could occur if current funding cuts continue.

The study found that USAID-supported programs were associated with a 15% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 32% reduction in mortality among children under five. The authors estimate that more than 91 million deaths were prevented during this period, of which approximately 30 million were among children. In countries receiving high levels of support, the strongest impact was seen in priority disease areas: mortality from HIV/AIDS was reduced by 74%, malaria by 53%, and neglected tropical diseases by 51%, compared to countries with low or no USAID funding. Significant reductions were also observed in deaths caused by tuberculosis, nutritional deficiencies, diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and maternal and perinatal conditions.

“Our analysis shows that USAID funding has been an essential force in saving lives and improving health outcomes in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions over the past two decades,” says Daniella Cavalcanti, Postdoctoral Researcher at the Institute of Collective Health and first author of the study.

Millions of lives are now at risk

To estimate the future consequences of recent funding cuts, the researchers used forecasting models simulating the impact of two scenarios: continuing 2023-level funding, or implementing the sharp reductions announced in early 2025—amounting to an 83% cut to USAID programs. Their projections show that if the cuts continue, more than 14 million additional deaths could occur by 2030, including over 4.5 million among children under five, or about 700,000 extra child deaths per year. These figures reflect the projected consequences of halting funding not only for health services but also for critical sectors such as nutrition, education, water and sanitation, and humanitarian relief.

Rasella, emphasizes the scale of the risk: “Our projections indicate that these cuts could lead to a sharp increase in preventable deaths, particularly in the most fragile countries. They risk abruptly halting—and even reversing—two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations. For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict.”

"From our experience on the ground, we have witnessed how USAID support has strengthened local health systems’ ability to respond to diseases like HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis. Cutting this funding now not only puts lives at risk—it also undermines critical infrastructure that has taken decades to build," concludes Francisco Saúte, General Director at the Manhiça Health Research Centre (CISM) and co-author of the study.

A global domino effect

The study warns that the impact of U.S. aid cuts could extend beyond the agency’s own programs. With the United States previously contributing over 40% of global humanitarian funding, other international donors may also reduce their commitments. This could further weaken service delivery in countries already dependent on external support.

“The findings of this study are even more concerning given that other international donors—primarily in the EU—have also announced substantial reductions in their aid budgets, potentially leading to even more additional deaths in the coming years,” adds Caterina Monti, Predoctoral Researcher at ISGlobal and one of the authors of the study.

Beyond the direct USAID support and interventions in healthcare provision, the authors highlight the importance of USAID-funded programs in improving education, food security, clean water access, and economic resilience—key elements that shape the social determinants of health. Reducing this support could undermine long-term development and stability in many LMICs.

"US citizens contribute about 17 cents per day to USAID, around $64 per year. I think most people would support continued USAID funding if they knew just how effective such a small contribution can be to saving millions of lives," says James Macinko, co-author of the study and Professor at UCLA.

The research is the first comprehensive analysis to assess the impact of total USAID funding—including support for health care, nutrition, humanitarian aid, development, education, and related sectors—on mortality rates in LMICs over the past two decades. The authors emphasize that the projections represent the most probable scenario based on currently available data and policy decisions, but that future outcomes could vary depending on how governments and institutions respond.

END



ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

New study reveals 33% gap in transplant access for UK’s poorest children

2025-06-30
(Tuesday 1 July 2025, London, United Kingdom) New research, presented at the ESOT Congress 2025, reveals persistent inequalities in children’s access to life-saving kidney transplants across the UK. The study highlights how ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and gender significantly influence a child's likelihood of receiving a transplant.1 Researchers from the University of Bristol analysed national data from the UK Renal Registry and NHS Blood & Transplant, focusing on patients under 18 years who started kidney replacement therapy between 1996 and 2020.2 Their findings reveal concerning disparities ...

Dysregulated epigenetic memory in early embryos offers new clues to the inheritance of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)

2025-06-30
(Paris, France, Tuesday, 1 July 2025) Novel research presented today at the 41st Annual Meeting of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) has found that embryos from women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) carry a distinctive ‘epigenetic memory’ that could explain why the condition often runs in families.[1] PCOS is a common hormonal disorder affecting an estimated 1 in 10 women of reproductive age worldwide.[2] It is characterised by irregular menstrual cycles, excess levels of androgens (male hormones) and the presence of multiple cysts on the ovaries.[3] While it is recognised as a leading ...

IVF and IUI pregnancy rates remain stable across Europe, despite an increasing uptake of single embryo transfer

2025-06-30
(Paris, France, Tuesday, 1 July 2025) Fewer in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and intrauterine insemination (IUI) cycles were reported in Europe in 20202, but clinical pregnancy rates remained stable, according to data presented at the 41st Annual Meeting of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) [1].   Preliminary data from the ESHRE European IVF Monitoring (EIM) Consortium [2] reveals a steady and progressive rise in the use of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART). In 2022, a total of 960,347 ART treatment cycles were reported by 1,371 clinics across 39 European countries, a 15.6% reduction from the 1,137,177 cycles reported in 2021 [3]. Of ...

It takes a village: Chimpanzee babies do better when their moms have social connections

2025-06-30
DURHAM, N.C. — In chimpanzee communities, strong social ties can be a matter of life and death not just for the adults who form them, but for their kids, too. A new federally-funded study of wild eastern chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) from Gombe National Park shows that female chimpanzees who were more socially integrated with other females in the year before giving birth were more likely to raise surviving offspring. The findings, published online on June 18 in iScience, show that these survival benefits hold for females ...

From lab to market: how renewable polymers could transform medicine

2025-06-30
In recent years, scientists have been exploring the use of renewable polymers derived from natural sources. Materials such as vegetable cellulose, bacterial cellulose, chitosan, and starch offer attractive properties for biomedical applications, especially in controlled drug release systems and regenerative medicine. However, despite their potential, many of these polymers still face significant challenges in reaching commercialization. The study conducted by Lopes et al. points out that despite advances, only a few natural polymers have become available on the market. The research emphasizes the importance ...

Striking increase in obesity observed among youth between 2011 and 2023

2025-06-30
Embargoed for release until 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday 30 June 2025    Follow @Annalsofim on X, Facebook, Instagram, threads, and Linkedin         Below please find summaries of new articles that will be published in the next issue of Annals of Internal Medicine. The summaries are not intended to substitute for the full articles as a source of information. This information is under strict embargo and by taking it into possession, media representatives are committing to the terms of the embargo not only on their own behalf, ...

No evidence that medications trigger microscopic colitis in older adults

2025-06-30
Study from Mass General Brigham and Karolinska Institutet researchers suggests that patients with the condition do not need to stop taking important medications  Microscopic colitis (MC) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease that severely reduces quality of life. MC is responsible for over 30% of all chronic diarrhea cases in people over 65 years of age, and its prevalence is rising worldwide. Although little is known about what causes MC, previous studies have suggested that a range of common medications could trigger ...

NYUAD researchers find link between brain growth and mental health disorders

2025-06-30
Abu Dhabi, UAE, June 30, 2025: A team of researchers at NYU Abu Dhabi has uncovered a key mechanism that helps shape how our brains are wired, and what can happen when that process is disrupted. In a new study published in Cell Reports, the RNA-MIND Lab at NYU Abu Dhabi, led by Professor of Biology Dan Ohtan Wang, with Research Associate Belal Shohayeb, reveals how a small molecular mark on messenger RNA, called m6A methylation, regulates the production of essential proteins inside growing neurons. This process plays a critical role in the development of axons, the long extensions that neurons use to connect and communicate with each other. The study ...

Aging-related inflammation is not universal across human populations, new study finds

2025-06-30
June 30, 2025 -- Inflammation, long considered a hallmark of aging, may not be a universal human experience, according to a new study from Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. The research suggests that "inflammaging"—chronic, low-grade inflammation associated with aging—appears to be a byproduct of industrialized lifestyles and varies significantly across global populations. The findings are published in Nature Aging. Researchers analyzed data from four populations: two industrialized ...

University of Oregon to create national children’s mental health center with $11 million federal grant

2025-06-30
With a new $11 million federal grant, the University of Oregon will create a national center for children’s mental health, putting the university at the forefront of national prevention efforts to improve the mental health and well-being of adolescents. The center will be housed in the UO’s Prevention Science Institute. It will be funded over the next five years by the National Institute of Mental Health. “This center will build on the strong work the UO’s Prevention Science Institute has done over decades in the area of school-based mental health prevention, bringing ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Scientists target ‘molecular machine’ in the war against antimicrobial resistance

Extending classical CNOP method for deep-learning atmospheric and oceanic forecasting

Aston University research: Parents should encourage structure and independence around food to support children’s healthy eating

Thunderstorms are a major driver of tree death in tropical forests

Danforth Plant Science Center adds two new faculty members

Robotic eyes mimic human vision for superfast response to extreme lighting

Racial inequities and access to COVID-19 treatment

Residential segregation and lung cancer risk in African American adults

Scientists wipe out aggressive brain cancer tumors by targeting cellular ‘motors’

Capturability distinction analysis of continuous and pulsed guidance laws

CHEST expands Bridging Specialties Initiative to include NTM disease and bronchiectasis on World Bronchiectasis Day

Exposure to air pollution may cause heart damage

SwRI, UTSA selected by NASA to test electrolyzer technology aboard parabolic flight

Prebiotics might be a factor in preventing or treating issues caused by low brain GABA

Youngest in class at higher risk of mental health problems

American Heart Association announces new volunteer leaders for 2025-26

Gut microbiota analysis can help catch gestational diabetes

FAU’s Paulina DeVito awarded prestigious NSF Graduate Research Fellowship

Champions for change – Paid time off initiative just made clinical trials participation easier

Fentanyl detection through packaging

Prof. Eran Meshorer elected to EMBO for pioneering work in epigenetics

New 3D glacier visualizations provide insights into a hotter Earth

Creativity across disciplines

Consequences of low Antarctic sea ice

Hear here: How loudness and acoustic cues help us judge where a speaker is facing

A unique method of rare-earth recycling can strengthen the raw material independence of Europe and America

Epilepsy self-management program shows promise to control seizures, improve mood and quality of life

Fat may play an important role in brain metabolism

New study finds no lasting impact of pandemic pet ownership on human well-being

New insights on genetic damage of some chemotherapies could guide future treatments with less harmful side effects

[Press-News.org] Study projects over 14 million preventable deaths by 2030 if USAID defunding continues
USAID funding helped save 91 million lives over the past 20 years—new research warns that recent U.S. aid cuts could now put that progress at risk