PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Extending classical CNOP method for deep-learning atmospheric and oceanic forecasting

New approach reveals when and where input uncertainty matters most

2025-07-01
(Press-News.org)

In recent years, deep learning methods have been increasingly applied in atmospheric and oceanic forecasting, showing superior forecast skills. Unlike time-stepping numerical models, deep learning forecasting models (DLMs) typically adopt a “multi-time-slice input” structure. This structure breaks the deterministic causality in the time dimension that exists in the numerical models. In this case, the forecast errors in DLMs should be attributed to all input slices, rather than any single one. This fundamental difference limits the applicability of the classical conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, as CNOP is defined at a single time slice, specifically, the initial time.

Recently, researchers have extended the CNOP method in the time dimension and proposed the CNOP-DL method. Designed specifically for DLMs with multi-time-slice inputs, CNOP-DL includes perturbations across multiple times of the inputs, revealing the sensitivity of forecast errors to input errors in both time and space dimensions. The new method is published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

 

“CNOP-DL is useful in the targeted observation studies, as it allows us to identify not only where, but also when additional observations should be deployed to reduce the input errors, ultimately to significantly mitigate the forecast errors,” said Dr. Ziqing Zu from National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China, the lead author of the study. “This is especially valuable for improving the forecasts of rapidly developing systems such as typhoons and mesoscale eddies, where observational resources are often limited.”

 

To demonstrate the utility of the method, they applied CNOP-DL to a case study of sea surface temperature (SST) forecasting in the South China Sea. The CNOP-DL included six time slices in the time dimension. Therefore, the optimal time can be identified according to the temporal structure of the perturbation energies. Furthermore, the results revealed that forecast errors are more sensitive to the time of the input perturbations than to the location. In other words, determining when to deploy additional observations can be more critical than determining where.

 

“In conventional targeted observation studies, the focus is typically on identifying the optimal locations for targeted observations at the initial time. By extending CNOP in the time dimension, CNOP-DL can identify which time steps in the inputs are more critical, thereby broadening the scope of conventional targeted observation studies.” said Professor Mu Mu from Fudan University, the corresponding author of the study. “By highlighting the importance of time sensitivity, CNOP-DL holds the potential for guiding practical field campaigns that optimize both spatial and temporal deployment of observational platforms such as moored buoys, gliders, and research vessels.”

 

CNOP-DL is also useful in predictability studies. The authors demonstrate that there are significant differences between CNOP-DL and CNOP, and that CNOP-DL can lead to larger forecast errors, thereby providing a more accurate estimate of the upper bound of forecast uncertainty. This is because, essentially, CNOP searches for the optimal solution within a subset of the CNOP-DL space; thus, CNOP can be regarded as a special case of CNOP-DL.

 

Next, the authors plan to calculate CNOP-DL for a lot of forecast cases, and then conduct composite analyses of CNOP-DL results. By identifying common patterns in sensitive regions and key time windows, they aim to design an optimal observational network in the South China Sea, particularly for moored buoy arrays. Such a system could provide valuable observations to improve significantly operational forecasts, using limited observational resources.

 

Other contributors include Jiangjiang Xia from Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia at CAS IAP in Beijing, China and Qiang Wang from College of Oceanography, Hohai University in Nanjing, China.

END



ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Aston University research: Parents should encourage structure and independence around food to support children’s healthy eating

2025-07-01
Dr Katie Edwards studied the feeding practices of parents of children with ‘avid’ eating traits, which can lead to obesity Focusing on health or deciding when it is time for a meal or snack helps parents to use supportive feeding practices. Supportive feeding practices could include involving children in decisions about food, or sitting together for mealtimes New research from Aston University has shone a light on the best ways for parents to encourage healthy eating in their children. The ...

Thunderstorms are a major driver of tree death in tropical forests

2025-07-01
Trees in tropical forests are dying at an increased rate, with consequences for biodiversity, carbon storage, and the global climate. While deforestation is the primary cause of forest loss, intact forests are also experiencing a rise in tree death. Drought, higher temperatures, and fires have been the leading suspects, but a new paper led by Evan Gora, a forest ecologist at Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, identifies an underappreciated threat: thunderstorms, which are becoming more frequent with climate change. Not to be confused with hurricanes or cyclones, these convective storms ...

Danforth Plant Science Center adds two new faculty members

2025-07-01
ST. LOUIS, MO, July 1, 2025– The Donald Danforth Plant Science Center today announced two new faculty members. Justin Conover, PhD, joined as assistant member and Erin Sparks, PhD, joined as associate member at the Danforth Center and associate professor at the University of Missouri – Columbia (MU) a joint hire between the Danforth Center and MU. “We’re excited to welcome two exceptional scientists who will add new expertise and complement several research areas at the Danforth Center,” ...

Robotic eyes mimic human vision for superfast response to extreme lighting

2025-07-01
WASHINGTON, July 1, 2025 — In blinding bright light or pitch-black dark, our eyes can adjust to extreme lighting conditions within a few minutes. The human vision system, including the eyes, neurons, and brain, can also learn and memorize settings to adapt faster the next time we encounter similar lighting challenges. In an article published this week in Applied Physics Letters, by AIP Publishing, researchers at Fuzhou University in China created a machine vision sensor that uses quantum dots to adapt to extreme changes in light far faster than the human eye can ...

Racial inequities and access to COVID-19 treatment

2025-07-01
About The Study: This cross-sectional study found that racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 treatment are substantial and partially explainable by encounter-level factors, particularly differences in diagnostic test type, virtual care access, and site of care. These findings suggest that targeted interventions, including expanding rapid test access and virtual care, may improve equity in outpatient COVID-19 treatment.  Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Rebecca Bromley-Dulfano, MS, email rbromleydulfano@g.harvard.edu. To ...

Residential segregation and lung cancer risk in African American adults

2025-07-01
About The Study: The results of this study suggest that structural racism embedded in neighborhood conditions contributes to lung cancer development and provides evidence for policymakers and public health leaders working to reduce disparities.  Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Loretta Erhunmwunsee, MD, email LorettaE@coh.org. To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/ (doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.18481) Editor’s ...

Scientists wipe out aggressive brain cancer tumors by targeting cellular ‘motors’

2025-07-01
 JUPITER, Fla. — A potential treatment for glioblastoma crafted by scientists at The Wertheim UF Scripps Institute renders the deadly brain cancer newly sensitive to both radiation and chemotherapy drugs, and blocks the cancer’s ability to invade other tissue, a new study shows. The experimental medication, called MT-125, has received approval from the FDA to move to clinical trials as a possible first-line treatment for the most aggressive form of the brain cancer. Each year, 14,000 people in the United States receive the devastating news that they have glioblastoma. It is a cancer with an average survival of just 14 to 16 months. ...

Capturability distinction analysis of continuous and pulsed guidance laws

2025-07-01
In the guidance law capturability analysis, the differential game theory is complemented by considering the optimal situation for both the evader and the pursuer as the capture boundary, and it is commonly used to derive the necessary and sufficient conditions of capture zones. However, in previous studies, capturability was analyzed for continuous guidance laws. Still, pulsed guidance laws, which are sometimes used in reality, such as pulsed orbital thrust control for exo-atmospheric vehicles, have different capture zones and influence factors.   To address the above-mentioned challenge, a team of automation scientists led ...

CHEST expands Bridging Specialties Initiative to include NTM disease and bronchiectasis on World Bronchiectasis Day

2025-07-01
Glenview, Illinois – On World Bronchiectasis Day (July 1), the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) is announcing the launch of Bridging Specialties®: Timely Diagnosis for NTM Disease and Bronchiectasis. Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) disease and bronchiectasis are complex, often underrecognized lung conditions that can mimic more common respiratory diseases, such as chronic bronchitis or TB. This can lead to delays in diagnosis and treatment. To address these delays, pulmonary and primary care professionals ...

Exposure to air pollution may cause heart damage

2025-07-01
OAK BROOK, Ill. – Researchers using cardiac MRI have found that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with early signs of heart damage, according to a study that was published today in Radiology, a journal of the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA). The research indicates that fine particulate matter in the air may contribute to diffuse myocardial fibrosis, a form of scarring in the heart muscle that can precede heart failure. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. There is a large body of evidence linking poor air quality with cardiovascular disease. However, the underlying changes in the heart ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Sugar, the hidden thermostat in plants

Personality can explain why some CEOs earn higher salaries

This puzzle game shows kids how they’re smarter than AI

Study suggests remembrances of dead played role in rise of architecture in Andean region

Brain stimulation can boost math learning in people with weaker neural connections

Inhibiting enzyme could halt cell death in Parkinson’s disease, study finds

Neurotechnology reverses biological disadvantage in maths learning

UNDER EMBARGO: Neurotechnology reverses biological disadvantage in maths learning

Scientists target ‘molecular machine’ in the war against antimicrobial resistance

Extending classical CNOP method for deep-learning atmospheric and oceanic forecasting

Aston University research: Parents should encourage structure and independence around food to support children’s healthy eating

Thunderstorms are a major driver of tree death in tropical forests

Danforth Plant Science Center adds two new faculty members

Robotic eyes mimic human vision for superfast response to extreme lighting

Racial inequities and access to COVID-19 treatment

Residential segregation and lung cancer risk in African American adults

Scientists wipe out aggressive brain cancer tumors by targeting cellular ‘motors’

Capturability distinction analysis of continuous and pulsed guidance laws

CHEST expands Bridging Specialties Initiative to include NTM disease and bronchiectasis on World Bronchiectasis Day

Exposure to air pollution may cause heart damage

SwRI, UTSA selected by NASA to test electrolyzer technology aboard parabolic flight

Prebiotics might be a factor in preventing or treating issues caused by low brain GABA

Youngest in class at higher risk of mental health problems

American Heart Association announces new volunteer leaders for 2025-26

Gut microbiota analysis can help catch gestational diabetes

FAU’s Paulina DeVito awarded prestigious NSF Graduate Research Fellowship

Champions for change – Paid time off initiative just made clinical trials participation easier

Fentanyl detection through packaging

Prof. Eran Meshorer elected to EMBO for pioneering work in epigenetics

New 3D glacier visualizations provide insights into a hotter Earth

[Press-News.org] Extending classical CNOP method for deep-learning atmospheric and oceanic forecasting
New approach reveals when and where input uncertainty matters most