How are coastal New Jersey communities communicating hazards of climate change?

(Press-News.org) Recent climate-related crises — from severe storms and flooding to extreme heat — have raised new questions about how local governments communicate the risk of these crises and what they are doing to keep their citizens safe. To better understand what this communication looks like at local level, and the factors that may be shaping it, researchers from Drexel University analyzed climate resilience planning information available on the public-facing websites of 24 coastal communities in New Jersey that are contending with the effects of sea level rise. Their report, recently published in the Journal of Extreme Events, found wide variation in the number and extent of mitigation actions taken and how the websites describe causes of coastal hazards — for example, only half of the communities are acknowledging sea level rise as a contributing factor to these hazards.

“Each municipality handles this communication a little differently — perhaps due to their relative risk, experience with flooding, or possibly because of their perception of what the public will accept as a feasible strategy. So, a study like this is important for comparing the information being conveyed and understanding localized variations,” said Patrick Gurian, PhD, a professor in Drexel’s College of Engineering, who led the research.

According to real estate data, New Jersey has more new homes being built in flood risk zones than any other state. The study looked at many of these communities, from Secaucus, Hoboken and Jersey City in the north, through Point Pleasant and Seaside Heights and down to Wildwood and Cape May on the southern tip — ranging in relative risk for flooding: “widespread,” “substantial” or “isolated,” which were categorized based on the percentage of their land area 10 feet or less above sea level.

The study compared the communities’ relative activity, as reported on their websites, through the lens of a climate adaptation index, which was defined as the sum of actions taken from a set of measures often considered by local governments in climate vulnerable areas — ranging from stormwater management and zoning policies to incentives to renovate or relocate.

The analysis revealed a wide range in the number of projects being undertaken, or publicized, with roughly half of the communities showing a high degree of activity and the other half showing much lower overall activity. The projects most frequently mentioned as being planned, in progress or completed, were projects addressing public infrastructure, with 62% of communities undertaking stormwater management projects and 50% undertaking road improvements. By contrast, none mentioned more permanent, but costly and controversial measures, such as managed retreat or buyout programs to help citizens relocate from vulnerable areas.

“Managed retreat planning is seemingly the least favored strategy among New Jersey coastal municipalities, whereas stormwater management and road improvements seem to be the most favored adaptation projects, likely due to their acceptance by the public and technical feasibility,” the researchers wrote.

Gurian, who has participated in related efforts to assess and bolster climate resilience plans in the Greater Philadelphia area, has a deep understanding of the underlying influences that can shape these strategies, including political undercurrents. But Gurian noted that, in the case of these two dozen communities in New Jersey, political leaning did not appear to be associated with whether they communicate about preparedness efforts.

The researchers overlaid voting behavior in the 2020 presidential election with reported climate risk preparedness activities. Of the 24 communities studied, 13 leaned Democrat and 11 Republican, per the 2020 results. But across the board, the strongest predictor of preparedness activities was being in an area classified as having “widespread risk” for coastal flooding – the most severe coastal flooding risk category.  

“Based on the results of this study, there are significant associations between the coastal flood risk for a community and the risk mitigation activities reported on governmental websites,” the researchers reported. “Population and favored political party (as measured by the 2020 presidential vote) were not found to have a significant influence on overall coastal preparedness.”

But a subtle indication of the political sensitivity around the framing of the problem may be visible in the websites’ language — or lack thereof — about climate change and sea level rise. Less than half (46%) provided information about the contribution of climate change and sea level rise to coastal hazard risk and even fewer (17%) acknowledged climate change and sea level rise and attributed them to human activity. The researchers suggested that avoiding this language may be a tactic to maintain support for the mitigation activities.

“Acknowledging climate change without attributing it to human activity may provide a window for governments to advance adaptation efforts while avoiding the potentially more controversial topics of causal attribution and emissions mitigation,” the researchers wrote.

While this study is limited to a small set of coastal communities in New Jersey, the team notes that its implications likely map onto similar municipalities in climate vulnerable areas across the country. The researchers recommend expanding both the geographic footprint in similar studies and efforts to capture local information sharing beyond websites, as not all governments may view or operate their websites as a primary means of communicating with citizens.

Gurian suggested this line of inquiry will become increasingly important as demand for coastal property and coastal flood risk are both increasing.

“The way local leaders and governments communicate about climate risk is vitally important because it not only shares urgent information that can help to keep citizens safe in the immediate future, but it also conveys a perspective of the problem that sets a framework for how citizens should perceive their own relative risk,” Gurian said. “Despite our divisive national political landscape, local governments can still communicate with their citizens about climate-related hazards. If local governments can preserve and leverage this relationship, while carefully and accurately communicating the risk climate change poses to their communities, they may yet be able to keep their citizens safe.”

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