Mizzou economists: 2025 farm income boosted by high cattle prices and one-time payments

(Press-News.org) Net farm income in the United States is projected to reach $177 billion in 2025, a sharp increase from $128 billion in 2024. This is according to the latest update of the annual U.S. farm income and consumer food price report by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.

Record cattle prices and large one-time government payments have boosted 2025 income, but declines in crop prices and projected reductions in future government support raise concerns about the outlook for 2026.

“Despite strong income this year, much of the gain is temporary,” Pat Westhoff, director of FAPRI, said. “As emergency payments dry up and crop prices remain weak, we project a $31 billion decline in farm income next year.”

The report incorporates data available in August 2025, including United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop production estimates and economic forecasts from S&P Global. It also accounts for modifications in key farm programs and tax credits related to biofuel production that were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed into law in July.

Key findings from the update include:

Corn prices fall significantly due to record production, with the 2025-26 marketing year (Sept. 1 - Aug. 31) average price projected at $4.05 per bushel, slightly above USDA’s latest estimate. Modest price recovery is expected in 2026-27. Soybean prices increase slightly to $10.16 per bushel in 2025-26 as reduced acreage and strong biofuel demand tighten supplies. Continued demand from the renewable fuels sector could drive further gains in 2026-27. Other crop prices remain weak, with large global supplies pressuring wheat, rice, sorghum and barley. Cotton is a notable exception, with a smaller crop supporting prices at 66.5 cents per pound. Cattle prices hit new records. Tight supplies and strong domestic demand push prices even higher in 2026 before increased production brings moderation. Dairy production increases as both cow numbers and yields rebound. However, added supply has weighed on prices, especially for cheese and butter. Exports are expected to help offset the pressure. Food price inflation rebounds to 2.9% in 2025, driven largely by beef prices, which are projected to rise by more than 10% for the year. Food-at-home inflation is expected to moderate in 2026, but costs at restaurants continue to rise. Westhoff emphasizes that the projections reflect a snapshot in time and are subject to change as new information becomes available.

“These forecasts are conditional on current policies and market expectations,” Westhoff said. “They provide a useful benchmark for evaluating potential impacts of economic shifts, weather events and future policy changes.”

The update is part of FAPRI’s ongoing efforts to provide policymakers, industry stakeholders and the public with reliable economic analysis of the U.S. agricultural sector.

 

Additional insights from the farm income report

 

 

About FAPRI

FAPRI, a program of distinction in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources (CAFNR), develops and publishes baseline reports to highlight the impact of current events on agricultural market trends and projections.

END