Could a liquid biopsy test lead to earlier diagnoses for numerous cancer types?

Study shows it would lead to increases in stages I–III diagnoses and a large decrease in stage IV diagnoses.

2025-11-10

(Press-News.org) Routine screening is limited to only a few cancer types. New research indicates that routine liquid biopsy testing (multi-cancer early detection testing) could substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses, allowing patients to receive treatment at earlier cancer stages, which are more likely to respond to interventions. The findings are published by Wiley online in CANCER, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Cancer Society.

Currently, routine screening is only recommended for four types of cancer, leaving approximately 70% of new cancer cases to be detected only after symptoms appear, often at an advanced stage when survival rates are lower. Multi-cancer early detection tests offer a revolutionary approach by screening for multiple cancer types simultaneously from a single blood draw.

To evaluate the impact of one such test, Cancerguard, investigators used epidemiological data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and developed a simulation model of 14 cancer types, which account for nearly 80% of cancer incidence and mortality. The researchers simulated 10-year disease progression for 5 million US adults aged 50–84 years and assessed the effects of incorporating an annual blood-based multi-cancer early detection test into standard care.

The model estimated that over 10 years, supplemental multi-cancer early detection testing would lead to a 10% increase in stage I diagnoses, a 20% increase in stage II diagnoses, a 30% increase in stage III diagnoses, and a 45% decrease in stage IV diagnoses, relative to standard care. The largest absolute reductions in stage IV diagnoses were in lung, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers. The largest relative reductions were in cervical, liver, and colorectal cancers.

“Our analysis shows that multi-cancer blood tests could be a game changer for cancer control,” said Jagpreet Chhatwal, PhD, the study’s lead author and Director of the Institute for Technology Assessment at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School. “By detecting cancers earlier—before they spread—these tests could potentially improve survival and reduce the personal and economic burden of cancer.”

Additional information
NOTE: The information contained in this release is protected by copyright. Please include journal attribution in all coverage. A free abstract of this article will be available via the CANCER Newsroom upon online publication. For more information or to obtain a PDF of any study, please contact: Sara Henning-Stout, newsroom@wiley.com

Full Citation:
“The Impact of Multi-Cancer Early Detection Tests on Cancer Stage Shift: A 10-Year Microsimulation Model.” Jagpreet Chhatwal, Jade Xiao, Andrew K. ElHabr, Christopher Tyson, Xiting Cao, Sana Raoof, A. Mark Fendrick, A. Burak Ozbay, Paul Limburg, Tomasz M. Beer, Andrew Briggs, and Ashish Deshmukh. CANCER; Published Online: November 10, 2025 (DOI: 10.1002/cncr.70075).
URL Upon Publication: http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/cncr.70075

Author Contact: Elizabeth Murphy of the Massachusetts General Hospital, at emurphy@mgb.org

About the Journal   
CANCER is a peer-reviewed publication of the American Cancer Society integrating scientific information from worldwide sources for all oncologic specialties. The objective of CANCER is to provide an interdisciplinary forum for the exchange of information among oncologic disciplines concerned with the etiology, course, and treatment of human cancer. CANCER is published on behalf of the American Cancer Society by Wiley and can be accessed online. Follow CANCER on X @JournalCancer and Instagram @ACSJournalCancer, and stay up to date with the American Cancer Society Journals on LinkedIn.

About Wiley    
Wiley is a global leader in authoritative content and research intelligence for the advancement of scientific discovery, innovation, and learning. With more than 200 years at the center of the scholarly ecosystem, Wiley combines trusted publishing heritage with AI-powered platforms to transform how knowledge is discovered, accessed, and applied. From individual researchers and students to Fortune 500 R&D teams, Wiley enables the transformation of scientific breakthroughs into real-world impact. From knowledge to impact—Wiley is redefining what's possible in science and learning. Visit us at Wiley.com and Investors.Wiley.com. Follow us on Facebook, X, LinkedIn and Instagram.

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Could a liquid biopsy test lead to earlier diagnoses for numerous cancer types?

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