PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
FREE PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Breakthrough in El Nino forecasting

2013-07-02
(Press-News.org) In order to extend forecasting from six months to one year or even more, scientists have now proposed a novel approach based on advanced connectivity analysis applied to the climate system. The scheme builds on high-quality data of air temperatures and clearly outperforms existing methods. The study will be published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"Enhancing the preparedness of people in the affected regions by providing more early-warning time is key to avoiding some of the worst effects of El Niño," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study by Josef Ludescher et al (Justus-Liebig Universität Giessen). The new approach employs network analysis which is a cutting-edge methodology at the crossroads of physics and mathematics. Data from more than 200 measurement points in the Pacific, available from the 1950s on, were crucial for studying the interactions between distant sites that cooperate in bringing about the warming.

Extending the forecasting time but also enhancing the reliability

According to Schellnhuber a new algorithm was developed and tested which does not only extend the forecasting time but also enhances the reliability. In fact, the novel method correctly predicted the absence of an El Niño-event in the last year. This forecast was made in 2011 already, whereas conventional approaches kept on predicting a significant warming far into 2012.

El Niño is part of a more general oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system called ENSO, which also embraces anomalous cold episodes dubbed La Niña which can inflict severe damages as well. The present study focuses on the warming events only. However, an El Niño-year is followed by a La Niña-year, as a rough rule.

Climate change: a factor for ENSO changes?

"It is still unclear to which extent global warming caused by humankind's emissions of greenhouse gases will influence the ENSO pattern," says Schellnhuber. "Yet the latter is often counted among the so-called tipping elements in the Earth system, meaning that at some level of climate change it might experience a relatively abrupt transformation." Certain data from the Earth's past suggest that higher mean global temperatures could increase the amplitude of the oscillation, so correct forecasting would become even more important.

### Article: Ludescher, J., Gozolchiani, A., Bogachev, M.I., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2013): Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (early online edition) [DOI:10.1073/pnas.1309353110]

Weblink to the article once it is published: http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1309353110

For further information please contact: PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de


ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Removing nerves connecting kidney to the brain shown to reduce high blood pressure

2013-07-02
A new technique that involves removing the nerves connecting the kidney to the brain has shown to significantly reduce blood pressure and help lower the risk of stroke, heart and renal disease in patients. The procedure, which has very few side effects, has already shown promising results in hard-to-treat cases of high blood pressure. The technique, published in the journal Hypertension, was performed by a team led by Professor Julian Paton at the University of Bristol who found that in an animal model of hypertension removing nerves connecting the kidney to the brain ...

Study identifies priorities for improving global conservation funding

2013-07-02
ANN ARBOR—A University of Michigan researcher and colleagues at the University of Georgia and elsewhere have identified the most underfunded countries in the world for biodiversity conservation. They found that 40 of the most poorly funded countries harbor 32 percent of all threatened mammalian biodiversity. Most—though not all—of the countries in greatest need of more funding are developing nations, so important gains could be made at relatively low cost, the researchers concluded. "Knowing where the need is greatest could help aid donors to direct their funding for ...

'Modern slavery' in England is a prevalent problem

2013-07-02
The first evidence of widespread 'modern slavery' in England for refugees and asylum seekers is revealed in a study published today. The two-year study calls for an overhaul of government policy to restore asylum seekers' right to work and ensure all workers can access basic employment rights, such as National Minimum Wage, irrespective of immigration status. Dr Stuart Hodkinson from the University of Leeds, who co-authored of the study, said: "We found that in the majority of cases, if the asylum seeker had been able to work legally then the employer or agent would ...

Wiggling worms make waves in gene pool

2013-07-02
HOUSTON – (July 1, 2013) – The idea that worms can be seen as waveforms allowed scientists at Rice University to find new links in gene networks that control movement. The work led by Rice biochemist Weiwei Zhong, which will appear online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition, involved analyzing video records of the movement of thousands of mutant worms of the species Caenorhabditis elegans to identify the neuronal pathways that drive locomotion. One result was the discovery of 87 genes that, when inactivated, caused movement ...

Pre-pregnancy diabetes increases risk of MRSA among new mothers

2013-07-02
Washington, DC, July 1, 2013 – Pregnant women with diabetes are more than three times as likely as mothers without diabetes to become infected with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) before hospital discharge, according to a study in the July issue of the American Journal of Infection Control, the official publication of the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology (APIC). The study aim was to investigate the extent to which pre-pregnancy and gestational diabetes are associated with MRSA infection. Researchers found that pre-pregnancy ...

Satellite shows tropical storm dalila hugging Mexico's southwestern coast

2013-07-02
System 96E became a tropical depression and quickly grew into Tropical Storm Dalila on June 30. Dalila has been hugging the coast of southwestern Mexico practically since it formed, and continues to do so on satellite imagery taken on July 1.Because of its close proximity to the coast, there's a tropical storm warning in effect for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to La Fortuna, and a Tropical Storm Watch from north of La Fortuna. That means 1 to 3 inches of rainfall expected over coastal areas of the Mexican states of Micohcan, Colima and Jaliso, and ...

Fires in Manitoba, Canada

2013-07-02
There are currently 27 fires in the northeast section of Manitoba. These fires have burned over 126,000 hectares (over 311,000 acres). Showers have lowered wildfire danger levels in most areas of the province with the exception of northeastern Manitoba where conditions continue to remain dry. The hot temperatures forecasted through this coming weekend will dry forested areas and increase these danger levels. The fire weather forecast for this area is for fast-spreading, high-intensity crown fire that is very difficult to control. This natural-color satellite image was ...

Thyroid cancer -- rising most rapidly among insured patients

2013-07-02
(Lebanon, NH, 6/26/13) —The rapid increase in papillary thyroid cancer in the US, may not be linked to increase in occurrence, according to a head and neck surgeon at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Norris Cotton Cancer Center, instead it may be linked to an increase in the diagnosis of pre-cancerous conditions and to a person's insurance status. That is the conclusion of a paper published in Thyroid, a peer reviewed journal of the American Thyroid Association, which included the research of Senior Author Louise Davies, MD, MS, The Veteran's Administration Outcomes Group, White River ...

UCLA stem cell gene therapy for sickle cell disease advances toward clinical trials

2013-07-02
Researchers at UCLA's Eli and Edythe Broad Center of Regenerative Medicine and Stem Cell Research have successfully established the foundation for using hematopoietic (blood-producing) stem cells from the bone marrow of patients with sickle cell disease to treat the disease. The study was led by Dr. Donald Kohn, professor of pediatrics and of microbiology, immunology and molecular genetics. Sickle cell disease causes the body to produce red blood cells that are formed like the crescent-shaped blade of a sickle, which hinders blood flow in the blood vessels and deprives ...

Bioengineering fungi for biofuels and chemicals production

2013-07-02
New Rochelle, NY, July 1, 2013—Among the increasingly valuable roles fungi are playing in the biotechnology industry is their ability to produce enzymes capable of releasing sugars from plants, trees, and other forms of complex biomass, which can then be converted to biofuels and biobased chemicals. Advances in fungal biology and in bioengineering fungal systems industrial applications are explored in a series of articles in Industrial Biotechnology, a peer-reviewed journal from Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishers. The articles are available on the Industrial Biotechnology ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Scientists model 'true prevalence' of COVID-19 throughout pandemic

New breakthrough to help immune systems in the fight against cancer

Through the thin-film glass, researchers spot a new liquid phase

Administering opioids to pregnant mice alters behavior and gene expression in offspring

Brain's 'memory center' needed to recognize image sequences but not single sights

Safety of second dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines after first-dose allergic reactions

Changes in disparities in access to care, health after Medicare eligibility

Use of high-risk medications among lonely older adults

65+ and lonely? Don't talk to your doctor about another prescription

Exosome formulation developed to deliver antibodies for choroidal neovascularization therapy

Second COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose found safe following allergic reactions to first dose

Plant root-associated bacteria preferentially colonize their native host-plant roots

Rare inherited variants in previously unsuspected genes may confer significant risk for autism

International experts call for a unified public health response to NAFLD and NASH epidemic

International collaboration of scientists rewrite the rulebook of flowering plant genetics

Improving air quality reduces dementia risk, multiple studies suggest

Misplaced trust: When trust in science fosters pseudoscience

Two types of blood pressure meds prevent heart events equally, but side effects differ

New statement provides path to include ethnicity, ancestry, race in genomic research

Among effective antihypertensive drugs, less popular choice is slightly safer

Juicy past of favorite Okinawan fruit revealed

Anticipate a resurgence of respiratory viruses in young children

Anxiety, depression, burnout rising as college students prepare to return to campus

Goal-setting and positive parent-child relationships reduce risk of youth vaping

New research identifies cancer types with little survival improvements in adolescents and young adul

Oncotarget: Replication-stress sensitivity in breast cancer cells

Oncotarget: TERT and its binding protein: overexpression of GABPA/B in gliomas

Development of a novel technology to check body temperature with smartphone camera

The mechanics of puncture finally explained

Extreme heat, dry summers main cause of tree death in Colorado's subalpine forests

[Press-News.org] Breakthrough in El Nino forecasting