PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Framework could improve southeast rainfall forecasts

2013-11-20
(Press-News.org) Contact information: Tim Lucas
tdlucas@duke.edu
919-613-8084
Duke University
Framework could improve southeast rainfall forecasts DURHAM, N.C. -- Summer rainfall in the southeastern United States is vitally important to the region's agriculture, economy and ecology. But accurately forecasting how much rain may fall in an upcoming season can be tricky because of the complicated physical processes and environmental factors that determine its intensity.

A new study by two Duke University scientists may help improve seasonal forecasts by providing a new statistical "framework" that meteorologists can use to predict the likely intensity of rainfall for the coming summer.

"Using our new framework, we found that the characteristics of southeastern U.S. rainfall are influenced by multiple climate factors," said Laifang Li, a PhD student in climatology at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment. "By identifying which of these climate factors or conditions is occurring, we can make more accurate rainfall intensity forecasts."

The intensity of light rainfall is associated with the combined effects of La Nina and the tri-pole sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern over the North Atlantic, she explained. Strong, heavy rainfall is more likely to occur in years when there is a horseshoe-like SSTA pattern over the north Atlantic. In contrast, moderate rainfall is more likely caused by internal dynamics in the atmosphere and is less correlated with the SSTA.

Li developed the new statistical modeling framework with her doctoral advisor, Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climatology at the Nicholas School.

"Traditionally, probability models treat rainfall samples with a single cluster. These models cannot capture the multi-mode feature of summer rainfall and associated factors that influence precipitation over the Southeast. Our new framework, by comparison, is based on a configuration of a three-cluster finite normal mixture model and is realized using Bayesian inference. Each cluster reflects the characteristics of light, moderate or heavy rainfall," Laifang Li explained.

By using a three-cluster framework, Li and Li found they can better identify the characteristics of rainfall and its underlying physical processes. This allows them to make more accurate seasonal forecasts.

While their current framework is designed specifically to forecast rainfall intensity in the Southeast during the months of June to August, they believe it can be adjusted and extended to other regions and seasons, as well.

"This could be a very useful tool to help us better understand the response of regional hydrology to climate variability and climate change in similar areas around the world," Wenhong Li said.

Li and Li published their finding in a peer-reviewed study in the online, open-access journal Environmental Research Letters.

### Funding for the research came from a National Science Foundation grant (AGS-1147608).

CITATION: "Southeastern United States Summer Rainfall Framework and Its Implication for Seasonal Predictions," Laifang Li, Wenhong Li. Environmental Research Letters, Oct. 28, 2013. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044017


ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Dartmouth-led study shows diet alone can be significant source of arsenic

2013-11-20
Dartmouth-led study shows diet alone can be significant source of arsenic Diet alone can be a significant source of arsenic exposure regardless of arsenic concentrations in drinking and cooking water, a Dartmouth College-led study finds. The study also confirms ...

Box office success linked to blogging, study finds

2013-11-20
Box office success linked to blogging, study finds Study shows how studios can stimulate ticket sales in local markets Movie attendance peaks during the holiday season, and studios capitalize on this by releasing dozens of new titles ...

National survey finds frog abnormalities are rare

2013-11-20
National survey finds frog abnormalities are rare A 10-year study shows some good news for frogs and toads on national wildlife refuges. The rate of abnormalities such as shortened or missing legs was less than 2 percent overall — indicating that the malformations ...

World's leading lung societies unite to call for improvements in health care

2013-11-20
World's leading lung societies unite to call for improvements in health care Northbrook, Illinois, November 20, 2013. Experts from the world's leading lung organizations have come together for the first time to call for a worldwide effort to improve ...

Scientists far from finish line in understanding anemia in female athletes

2013-11-20
Scientists far from finish line in understanding anemia in female athletes ANN ARBOR—When Kaitlyn Patterson's fatigue progressed to hyperventilating even during slow runs, and then forced her to quit high school distance running for the season, she knew something ...

Evidence of destruction in Tacloban, Philippines

2013-11-20
Evidence of destruction in Tacloban, Philippines When Super Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on November 8, 2013, it pounded the island of Leyte with winds near 315 kilometers (195 miles) per hour and a tremendous storm surge. In Tacloban, winds blew a wall of ...

Virtual sailing simulator shows key role of recreation

2013-11-20
Virtual sailing simulator shows key role of recreation Kennedy Krieger Institute researchers find therapeutic benefits of virtual sailing Researchers at the Kennedy Krieger Institute announced today the results of a pilot study demonstrating use of a virtual ...

AIDS guidelines for children may not improve death rates but may improve treatment access

2013-11-20
AIDS guidelines for children may not improve death rates but may improve treatment access Recent changes to World Health Organization guidelines for starting anti-AIDS drugs (antiretroviral therapy—ART) in young children are unlikely to improve death rates but may ...

Treating alcohol dependence: Medication plus therapy leads to longer abstinence

2013-11-20
Treating alcohol dependence: Medication plus therapy leads to longer abstinence Alcohol treatment that incorporates a stepped-care rationale, in which services are escalated, ...

Recessionary woes lead to adverse alcohol outcomes for men and middle-aged Americans

2013-11-20
PUBLIC RELEASE DATE: 19-Nov-2013 [ | E-mail ] var addthis_pub="eurekalert"; var addthis_options = "favorites, delicious, digg, facebook, twitter, google, newsvine, reddit, slashdot, stumbleupon, buzz, more" Share Contact: Nina Mulia, Dr.PH. nmulia@arg.org 510-597-3440 Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute Laura A. Schmidt, Ph.D., M.S.W., M.P.H. laura.schmidt@ucsf.edu 415-476-0440 University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research Recessionary woes lead to adverse alcohol outcomes ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Freeze-framing the cellular world to capture a fleeting moment of cellular activity

Computer hardware advance solves complex optimization problems

SOX2: a key player in prostate cancer progression and treatment resistance

Unlocking the potential of the non-coding genome for precision medicine

Chitinase-3-like protein 1: a novel biomarker for liver disease diagnosis and management

The Journal of Nuclear Medicine Ahead-of-Print Tip Sheet: August 22, 2025

Charisma Virtual Social Coaching named a finalist for Global Innovation Award

From the atmosphere to the abyss: Iron's role in Earth's climate history

US oil and gas air pollution causes unequal health impacts

Scientists reveal how microbes collaborate to consume potent greenhouse gas

UMass Amherst kinesiologist receives $2 million ‘outstanding researcher’ award from NIH

Wildfire peer review report for land Brandenburg, Germany, is now online

Wired by nature: Precision molecules for tomorrow's electronics

New study finds hidden body fat is linked to faster heart ageing

How a gift card could help speed up Alzheimer’s clinical research

Depression and anxiety symptoms in adults displaced by natural disasters

Cardiovascular health at the intersection of race and gender in Medicare fee for service

World’s first observation of the transverse Thomson effect

Powerful nodes for quantum networks

Mapping fat: How microfluidics and mass spectrometry reveal lipid landscapes in tiny worms

ATOX1 promotes hepatocellular carcinoma carcinogenesis via activation of the c-Myb/PI3K/AKT signaling pathway

Colibactin-producing E. coli linked to higher colorectal cancer risk in FAP patients

Animal protein not linked to higher mortality risk, study finds

Satellite insights into eutrophication trends on the Qinghai–Tibet plateau

Researchers develop an innovative method for large-scale analysis of metabolites in biological samples

Asteroid Bennu is a time capsule of materials bearing witness to its origin and transformation over billions of years

New AI model can help extend life and increase safety of electric vehicle batteries

Wildfires can raise local death rate by 67%, shows study on 2023 Hawaiʻi fires

Yogurt and hot spring bathing show a promising combination for gut health

Study explains how lymphoma rewires human genome

[Press-News.org] Framework could improve southeast rainfall forecasts