(Press-News.org) TEMPE, Ariz. – Enormous uncertainty. These two words describe the condition of Phoenix's climate and water supply in the 21st century. Reservoirs have dipped to their lowest levels, continuous drought has plagued the state and forecasts for even warmer summers are predicted. Despite this uncertainty, professors at Arizona State University say there's no need to be fearful because positive impacts can be made.
ASU professors Patricia Gober and Craig Kirkwood working in conjunction with Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC), which specializes in decision making under uncertainty, assessed the climate's affect on water shortage in Phoenix. Their results were published in the Dec. 14, 2010 issue of the Online Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A special section in this PNAS issue focuses on what the 21st century climate in the Southwest will mean in terms of sustainability.
Their paper, "Vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water shortage in Phoenix," discusses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty, looks at human vulnerability to environmental risks in terms of water shortages, looks at factors that affect water supply and provides numerous options for solutions.
Factors such as population growth, increased development, outdoor landscaping and more private pools all affect water supply. Gober and Kirkwood used an integrated simulation model, called WaterSim, to investigate the long-term consequences of policies that manage groundwater, growth and urban development in Phoenix.
Gober, who also is director of DCDC, said the goal is not to preach an agenda but to provide the science that supports better decision making.
"If you make this set of choices then you can continue to have a vibrant city even under dire climate conditions. We have a smorgasbord of choices," Gober said. "You pick the menu items that are going to work best for your community."
Adapting to a shortage in water supply, Gober said is "not a one size fits all answer." The paper points out a few things people can do such as changing their type of landscape, limiting the number of pools in a community, building a higher density city and investing money to fix water leaks.
Gober, who also studies the relationship between energy and water in relation to the urban heat island, said, "just because we don't know what's going to happen with the climate, doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't do anything."
Researchers at DCDC, which is funded by the National Science Foundation, discuss risk management and strategies in terms of water supply.
"Uncertainty can paralyze decision making," Gober said. "But DCDC and this paper say, look we don't know what the future holds, but we can still do things to reduce risk and protect ourselves from water shortages."
###
Source:
Pat Gober, (480) 727-8446
Media contact:
Skip Derra, (480) 965-4823; skip.derra@asu.edu
Story written by April Stolarz
A positive step in the face of uncertainty
2010-12-15
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
UCI researchers find novel memory-enhancing mechanism in brain
2010-12-15
Irvine, Calif., Dec. 14, 2010 — UC Irvine researchers have identified a novel mechanism in the brain that boosts memory.
In collaboration with scientists at Germany's University of Munster, the UCI team found that a small protein called neuropeptide S can strengthen and prolong memories of everything from negative events to simple objects.
According to study leader Rainer Reinscheid, UCI associate professor of pharmaceutical sciences, the discovery could provide important clues about how the brain stores memories and also lead to new treatments for Alzheimer's disease, ...
It's time for a new approach to Alzheimer's disease
2010-12-15
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Karl Herrup thinks that the national research effort to understand Alzheimer’s disease has gone about as far as it can go with its current theories. And that’s not far enough.
Alzheimer's disease is an incurable, degenerative, eventually fatal disease that attacks cognitive function. It affects more than 26 million people around the world and is the most common form of dementia among people over the age of 65. Over the last three decades, most Alzheimer’s research has been governed by the “amyloid cascade hypothesis.” The theory – which holds that ...
People who believe in justice also see a victim's life as more meaningful after tragedy
2010-12-15
Seeing bad things happen to other people is scary. One way to respond to this is to blame the victim—to look for some reason why it happened to them. But there's another common response, according to a new study published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science. The researchers found that people who believe in justice in the world also believe that a tragedy gives the victim's life more meaning.
"A lot of the time when people see someone else suffering, and helping them isn't an option, people will instead justify the fact that ...
Rationalization measures are the main cause of poor work environment
2010-12-15
Managers in the private and public sectors must consider work environment when rationalising production to obtain sustainable systems. A research study published in the journal Applied Ergonomics reveals that rationalisation measures often have a major negative impact on both the physical and psychosocial work environment. "However, the review also presents scientific evidence on how to reduce this problem," says one of the researchers, at the University of Gothenburg.
"Considerable resources all over the world have been invested in dealing with work-related disorders. ...
Anatomy of a shopping spree: Pretty things make us buy more
2010-12-15
Chestnut Hill, Mass. (Dec. 14, 2010) – With the holidays fast approaching and consumers in full shopping mode, new research shows that a seemingly innocent luxury item purchase can lead to an unintended, budget-busting spending spree.
The problem starts with the purchase of a new item, particularly those among designer product lines, luxury branded items, or consumer goods of high-end design. Once home, these items – graced with what researchers call salient design elements, such as a unique pattern or interesting color scheme – can look out of place when compared to ...
Study shows post-9/11 security zones blight landscape
2010-12-15
DENVER (Dec. 14, 2010) – A decade after the 9/11 attacks, significant parts of America's most prominent downtowns remain largely sealed off as `security zones,' but a newly published study by University of Colorado Denver professor Jeremy Németh says this has led to blighted landscapes, limited public access and a need for a new approach to urban planning.
"Our most open, public cities are becoming police states," said Németh, assistant professor of planning and design whose study was recently published in Environment and Planning A. "While a certain amount of security ...
Cell of origin for brain tumors may predict response to therapy
2010-12-15
For patients with glioma, the most common primary brain tumor, new findings may explain why current therapies fail to eradicate the cancer. A UCSF-led team of scientists has identified for the first time that progenitor rather than neural stem cells underly a type of glioma called oligodendroglioma. This distinction explains why oligodendroglioma is more responsive to therapy than other brain tumors such as glioblastoma multiforme.
The finding is significant, the researchers say, because it gives cancer doctors and researchers new cellular pathways to target in developing ...
Once upon a time in the Intensive Care Unit ...
2010-12-15
MONTREAL, December 14, 2010 – The first few days after birth is an important time when babies learn to recognize the sound of their parents' voice and the parents in turn bond with their children. However, the separation between parents and newborns admitted to the intensive care unit can be very difficult and can disrupt the early development of this relationship.
Jan Lariviere, a nurse in the neonatal clinic and the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) at The Montreal Children's Hospital (MCH) of the MUHC led an innovative research project that suggests reading to newborns ...
Optical water quality assessment
2010-12-15
Madison, WI December 14, 2010 -- Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have proven that measuring fluorescence could improve source water monitoring during a study of the McKenzie River in Oregon. The study was designed to assess the amount, type and source of dissolved organic carbon that exists in all sources of drinking water.
Dissolved organic carbon can react with chlorine during water treatment and form halogenated compounds, commonly referred to as disinfection byproducts. Some of these byproducts are regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, ...
Human umbilical cord blood cells found to enhance survival and maturation of key brain cells
2010-12-15
Laboratory culture (in vitro) studies examining the activity of human umbilical cord blood cells (HUCB) on experimental models of central nervous system aging, injury and disease, have shown that HUCBs provide a 'trophic effect' (nutritional effect) that enhances survival and maturation of hippocampal neurons harvested from both young and old laboratory animals.
"As we age, cognitive function tends to decline," said Alison E. Willing, PhD, a professor in the University of South Florida's (USF) Department of Neurosurgery and Brain repair and lead author for a study published ...