PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Think fast — or not: FSU research describes mathematics behind decision making

Think fast — or not: FSU research describes mathematics behind decision making
2024-08-13
(Press-News.org) New research from a Florida State University professor and colleagues explains the mathematics behind how initial predispositions and additional information affect decision making.

The research team’s findings show that when decision makers quickly come to a conclusion, the decision is more influenced by their initial bias, or a tendency to err on the side of one of the choices presented. If decision makers wait to gather more information, the slower decision will be less biased. The work was published today in Physical Review E.

“The basic result might seem sort of intuitive, but the mathematics we had to employ to prove this was really non-trivial,” said co-author Bhargav Karamched, an assistant professor in the FSU Department of Mathematics and the Institute of Molecular Biophysics. “We saw that for the first decider in a group, the trajectory of their belief is almost a straight line. The last decider hovers around, going back and forth for a while before making a decision. Even though the underlying equation for each agent’s belief is the same except for their initial bias, the statistics and behavior of each individual is very different.”

The researchers built a mathematical model that represented a group of agents required to decide between two conclusions, one which was correct and one which was incorrect. The model assumed each actor within a group was acting rationally, that is, deciding based off their initial bias and the information they are presented, rather than being swayed by the decisions of individuals around them.

Even with evidence and assuming perfect rationality, bias toward a particular decision caused the earliest deciders in the model to make the wrong conclusion 50% of the time. The more information actors gathered, the more likely they were to behave as if they weren’t biased and to arrive at a correct conclusion.

Of course, in the real world, people are swayed by all sorts of inputs, such as their emotions, the decisions their friends made and other variables. This research offers a metric showing how individuals within a group should make decisions if they are acting rationally. Future research could compare real-world data against this metric to see where people are diverting from optimally rational choices and consider what might have caused their divergence.

The researchers’ model is known as a drift diffusion model, so called because it combines two concepts: individual actor’s tendency to “drift,” or move toward an outcome based on evidence, and the random “diffusion,” or variability of the information presented.

The work could be used, for example, to understand when people are being unduly swayed by early decisions or falling victim to groupthink. It even helps describe other complex scenarios with many individual actors, such as the immune system or the behavior of neurons.

“There is still a lot of work to do to understand decision making in more complicated situations, such as cases where more than two alternatives are presented as choices, but this is a good starting point,” Karamched said.

This research was a multi-institution collaboration involving doctoral candidate Samantha Linn and Associate Professor Sean D. Lawley of the University of Utah, Associate Professor Zachary P. Kilpatrick of the University of Colorado, and Professor Krešimir Josic of the University of Houston.

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

END

[Attachments] See images for this press release:
Think fast — or not: FSU research describes mathematics behind decision making Think fast — or not: FSU research describes mathematics behind decision making 2 Think fast — or not: FSU research describes mathematics behind decision making 3

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Largest study of its kind finds common lab tests aren’t reliable for diagnosing Long COVID

2024-08-13
A new study found that most routine laboratory tests are not reliable for diagnosing Long COVID, also known as Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). The study, published today in Annals of Internal Medicine, found no reliable biomarker among 25 routine clinical laboratory values for prior infection, PASC or specific types of PASC clusters. This suggests none of these routine labs can serve as a clinically useful biomarker of PASC. "Our study shows patients can have severe Long COVID with normal lab results. This ...

Engineers make tunable, shape-changing metamaterial inspired by vintage toys

Engineers make tunable, shape-changing metamaterial inspired by vintage toys
2024-08-12
Common push puppet toys in the shapes of animals and popular figures can move or collapse with the push of a button at the bottom of the toys’ base. Now, a team of UCLA engineers has created a new class of tunable dynamic material that mimics the inner workings of push puppets, with applications for soft robotics, reconfigurable architectures and space engineering. Inside a push puppet, there are connecting cords that, when pulled taught, will make the toy stand stiff. But by loosening these cords, the “limbs” of the toy will go limp. Using the same cord tension-based principle that controls a puppet, researchers have developed a new type of metamaterial, a material ...

Start-up Whisper Aero uses the ORNL Summit supercomputer to test concepts for an ultraquiet electric airplane

Start-up Whisper Aero uses the ORNL Summit supercomputer to test concepts for an ultraquiet electric airplane
2024-08-12
From a nondescript industrial building in the small town of Crossville, Tennessee, the team of engineers at Whisper Aero is planning a revolution in aviation technology. Previously home to a publisher of magazines — including, coincidentally, Trade-A-Plane, an airplane sales publication started in 1937 — the long-empty property’s cavernous spaces are now filled with multidisciplinary activities that include the creation of a new electric aircraft engine. In January 2024, employees of the 3-year-old start-up moved into their new headquarters, refurbishing its dusty rooms into a 21st century aerospace technology facility with areas ...

New study unveils 16,000 years of climate history in the tropical Andes

2024-08-12
PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — A new study that explores ancient temperatures and rainfall patterns in the tropical Andes of South America has revealed how 16,000 years of climate history in this part of the world was driven by carbon dioxide levels and ocean currents from global climate events. Led by Brown University researchers, the study marks the first high-resolution temperature record covering the past 16,000 years in the tropical Andes and could help scientists predict and mitigate future climate impacts in tropical regions of the planet. The work is described in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. “Usually ...

The Society of Huntsman Translational Scholars welcomes two more members

The Society of Huntsman Translational Scholars welcomes two more members
2024-08-12
Huntsman Cancer Institute and the University of Utah (the U) are proud to announce the induction of two physician-scientists, Heloisa Soares, MD, PhD, and Skyler Johnson, MD, as members of The Society of Huntsman Translational Scholars. The Society of Huntsman Translational Scholars supports scientists who focus on translating research discoveries made in the lab into innovations that improve outcomes for cancer patients. Scholars receive financial support for their scientific work, have opportunities for mentorship, and collaborate with other society members in advancing scientific discoveries. “The Society of Huntsman Translational Scholars ...

UMass Amherst researchers create new method for orchestrating successful collaboration among robots

2024-08-12
AMHERST, Mass. – New research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst shows that programming robots to create their own teams and voluntarily wait for their teammates results in faster task completion, with the potential to improve manufacturing, agriculture and warehouse automation. This research was recognized as a finalist for Best Paper Award on Multi-Robot Systems at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation 2024. “There’s a long history of debate on whether we want to build a single, powerful humanoid robot that can do all ...

Co-mentors announced in unique opportunity for PCCM fellows

2024-08-12
Glenview, Illinois – For the second year of the APCCMPD and CHEST Medical Educator Scholar Diversity Fellowship, Tristan Huie, MD, FCCP, and Anna Neumeier, MD, will be co-mentors for 2025. Designed to pair a fellow-in-training with an established medical educator, the unique scholarship was launched in August 2023 by the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) and the Association of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Program Directors (APCCMPD) to improve diversity in respiratory care. The program focuses on creating opportunities for fellows at institutions ...

AI poses no existential threat to humanity – new study finds

2024-08-12
ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs) cannot learn independently or acquire new skills, meaning they pose no existential threat to humanity, according to new research from the University of Bath and the Technical University of Darmstadt in Germany. The study, published today as part of the proceedings of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL 2024) – the premier international conference in natural language processing – reveals that LLMs have a superficial ability to follow instructions and excel at proficiency in language, ...

Routine lab tests are not a reliable way to diagnose long COVID

2024-08-12
A National Institutes of Health (NIH)-supported study has found that routine lab tests may not be useful in making a long COVID diagnosis for people who have symptoms of the condition. The study, part of NIH’s Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (NIH RECOVER) Initiative and published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, highlights how challenging it can be to identify and diagnose a novel illness such as long COVID.   “Our challenge is to discover biomarkers that can help us quickly and accurately diagnose long ...

Tracking the color of light

Tracking the color of light
2024-08-12
Since the first demonstration of the laser in the 1960s, laser spectroscopy has become an essential tool for studying the detailed structures and dynamics of atoms and molecules. Advances in laser technology have further enhanced its capabilities. There are two main types of laser spectroscopy: frequency comb-based laser spectroscopy and tunable continuous-wave (CW) laser spectroscopy. Comb-based laser spectroscopy enables extremely precise frequency measurements, with an accuracy of up to 18 digits. This remarkable precision led to ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Optical biosensor rapidly detects monkeypox virus

New drug targets for Alzheimer’s identified from cerebrospinal fluid

Neuro-oncology experts reveal how to use AI to improve brain cancer diagnosis, monitoring, treatment

Argonne to explore novel ways to fight cancer and transform vaccine discovery with over $21 million from ARPA-H

Firefighters exposed to chemicals linked with breast cancer

Addressing the rural mental health crisis via telehealth

Standardized autism screening during pediatric well visits identified more, younger children with high likelihood for autism diagnosis

Researchers shed light on skin tone bias in breast cancer imaging

Study finds humidity diminishes daytime cooling gains in urban green spaces

Tennessee RiverLine secures $500,000 Appalachian Regional Commission Grant for river experience planning and design standards

AI tool ‘sees’ cancer gene signatures in biopsy images

Answer ALS releases world's largest ALS patient-based iPSC and bio data repository

2024 Joseph A. Johnson Award Goes to Johns Hopkins University Assistant Professor Danielle Speller

Slow editing of protein blueprints leads to cell death

Industrial air pollution triggers ice formation in clouds, reducing cloud cover and boosting snowfall

Emerging alternatives to reduce animal testing show promise

Presenting Evo – a model for decoding and designing genetic sequences

Global plastic waste set to double by 2050, but new study offers blueprint for significant reductions

Industrial snow: Factories trigger local snowfall by freezing clouds

Backyard birds learn from their new neighbors when moving house

New study in Science finds that just four global policies could eliminate more than 90% of plastic waste and 30% of linked carbon emissions by 2050

Breakthrough in capturing 'hot' CO2 from industrial exhaust

New discovery enables gene therapy for muscular dystrophies, other disorders

Anti-anxiety and hallucination-like effects of psychedelics mediated by distinct neural circuits

How do microbiomes influence the study of life?

Plant roots change their growth pattern during ‘puberty’

Study outlines key role of national and EU policy to control emissions from German hydrogen economy

Beloved Disney classics convey an idealized image of fatherhood

Sensitive ceramics for soft robotics

Trends in hospitalizations and liver transplants associated with alcohol-induced liver disease

[Press-News.org] Think fast — or not: FSU research describes mathematics behind decision making