PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Research shows reducing future global flooding hinges on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

2024-08-21
(Press-News.org) Pioneering research forecasts worldwide flooding is likely to be significantly worse in future decades if countries fail to meet official pledges to cut carbon emissions.

The study, published today and led by experts from the University of Bristol and global water risk intelligence firm Fathom, reveals projections of different types of flooding in various climate change scenarios with unprecedented precision.

Through deploying the most comprehensive mapping framework, findings indicate overall global flooding could increase by around half between 2020 and the turn of the century in the event of high climate sensitivity and multilateral promises to reduce carbon emissions being broken.

Lead author Dr Oliver Wing, Honorary Research Fellow at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment and Chief Research Officer at Fathom, said: “This research represents the culmination of years of research on our quest to help future-proof communities around the world from the evolving risk of flooding. The findings underscore the vital importance of all countries keeping their promise to cut carbon emissions.”

In the best-case lower emissions scenario, where all global carbon pledges are fulfilled, the average flood hazard level is projected to rise by 9% between 2020 and 2100. The more pessimistic prospect of higher carbon emissions showed flooding could increase 49% by the end of the century.

In the next few decades, the projected increases in flood hazard were more modest. Between 2020 and 2050, in a low carbon emissions scenario flood risk is anticipated to grow 7% with this doubling to more than 15% in a high carbon emissions model.

Dr Wing said: “It is important to note that these global averages result from predicted changes in hazard that have large geographical variations. Some places will see their flood risk fall, whilst for others the increases will be many times larger than the global average even under a lower emissions scenario.”

The report highlighted that coastal flooding remains a hotspot regardless of whether all global carbon emissions are met or not. Even in a low emissions scenario, coastal flooding is forecast to almost double, increasing by 99% by 2100, due to the lagged response of ocean sea level rise to existing warming.

Flooding caused by rainfall was found to be especially vulnerable to human-induced climate change. Whereas this type of flooding was shown to increase by 6% by 2100 in a low emissions scenario, this increase grows to 44% in a high emissions model.

The largest future increases in flooding are projected to be around global coastlines and in tropical Africa and Asia, as well as significant changes to arid North Africa. The likelihood of flood increases was most pronounced along the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean coasts, as well as for southeastern Asia and the Pacific Islands.

Recently developed global flood models estimate the national or global population exposed to floods; potential value of assets at risk; cost and benefits of flood defences, and the impact of climate and socio-economic change on future losses. Most only represent river flooding, but this study factors in the significant impact of coastal flooding, and has undergone the most rigorous validation of any global flood model to date.

Countries signed up to ambitious pledges to lower carbon emissions at COP27 and the study clearly indicates that if these aren’t all achieved on time and in full, flooding levels look set to be heavily impacted.  

Co-author Professor Paul Bates CBE, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment and Chairman and Co-founder of Fathom, said: “Undertaking this research project involved subjecting our findings to the most comprehensive benchmarking of global flood modelling yet published.

“With the highest resolution results produced to date, we hope industries will derive value from our model for a range of additional use cases, such as protecting critical infrastructure from future flooding, helping insurers price premiums and meeting the requirements of climate regulations.”

Additional contributors to the research paper from the University of Bristol include Prof Jeff Neal, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment and Chief Scientific Advisor at Fathom; and two Fathom scientists soon to embark on PhDs at the University.  

END


ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Do gender, ethnicity, and education affect people’s ability to get jobs that fit their interests?

2024-08-21
In a study published in Applied Psychology, researchers investigated the degree to which people can obtain jobs that fit their interests (called vocational interest fit), with the goal of identifying any differences in fit across race/ethnicity, gender, and education. The study included a diverse sample of more than 250,000 American employees. Overall, employees showed moderate positive vocational interest fit with their jobs. There were small gender differences in vocational interest fit favoring men, especially white and Hispanic men, with minimal differences across other race/ethnicity groups. Considerable differences were observed regarding education, ...

Can flexibility help people live longer?

2024-08-21
Flexibility exercises are often included in the exercise regimens of athletes and exercisers. New research in the Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports suggests that levels of flexibility may affect survival in middle-aged individuals. After analyzing data on 3,139 people (66% men) aged 46–65 years, investigators obtained a body flexibility score, termed Flexindex. This score was derived from a combination of the passive range of motion in 20 movements (each scored 0–4) involving 7 different joints, resulting in a score range of 0–80. Flexindex was 35% higher in women compared with men. During an average follow-up ...

Does cognitive behavioral therapy benefit cancer survivors?

2024-08-21
A recent analysis of all relevant published studies reveals clear benefits of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) for improving mental health and quality of life in cancer survivors. The findings, which are published in Cancer Medicine, extend CBT’s effects beyond what has long been known in the general population. For the analysis, investigators uncovered 132 clinical trials comparing CBT with controls, including standard therapy, waitlist control, or active/alternative therapy. Across the trials, CBT moderately ...

What’s the best method for extracting edible protein from insects?

2024-08-21
Edible insects are emerging as an alternative protein source that has various benefits compared with conventional animal sources. New research published in the Journal of Food Science compared four different methods for extracting protein from mealworms, which were designated by the European Union as the first insect to be used as a novel food source in 2015. For the research, investigators compared alkali, salt, enzyme, and screw press methods for extracting mealworm protein. Alkali extraction enhanced protein content, enzyme treatment improved nutritional value and antioxidant capacity, and salt-assisted extraction exhibited anti-inflammatory effects. Enzyme and salt treatments ...

Study confirms the utility of screening to identify autism in toddlers born preterm

2024-08-21
New research published in Developmental Medicine & Child Neurology reveals that children born preterm are more likely to screen positive for autism than full-term children. For the study, 9,725 toddlers were screened at 15-, 18-, or 24-month well child visits using a test called the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers, Revised. Screening results that were positive for autism were most common among children born extremely preterm (51.35%) and least common among those born full-term (6.95%). Subsequent ...

Obese children are more likely to develop skin conditions related to the immune system

2024-08-21
Philadelphia, August 21, 2024 – Childhood obesity can contribute to the development of common immune-mediated skin diseases (IMSDs), such as alopecia areata, atopic dermatitis, and psoriasis, new research finds. Maintaining a healthy weight could potentially help lower the chances of developing these skin conditions. A novel study in the Journal of Investigative Dermatology, published by Elsevier, details the findings of an analysis of 2,161,900 Korean children from 2009 to 2020 to investigate the relationship between obesity or dynamic changes in body weight and the development of IMSDs. IMSDs have detrimental effects on quality of life, including emotional, physical, social, ...

Quality control: neatly arranging crystal growth to make fine thin films

Quality control: neatly arranging crystal growth to make fine thin films
2024-08-21
Table salt and refined sugar look white to our eyes, but that is only because their individual colorless crystals scatter visible light. This feature of crystals is not always desirable when it comes to materials for optical and electrical devices, however. Metal-organic frameworks are one such material. Crystalline with micropores, thin films of these nanomaterials have been attracting attention as a next-generation material that could also have an impact on environmental issues such as hydrogen storage and carbon dioxide capture. An Osaka Metropolitan University, Graduate School of Engineering team has found a way to control ...

How does organic farming benefit honeybees?

2024-08-21
Organic farming and flower strips promote the health of honey bees. In their vicinity, colonies grow stronger and are generally healthier. This is most likely because the insects have a diverse and continuous food supply there and are less exposed to pesticides. These are the findings of a new study by Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU) and the University of Göttingen, published in the Journal of Applied Ecology. The team analysed data from 32 bee colonies at 16 locations in Germany with different proportions of organic fields, flower strips and semi-natural habitats. According ...

Survey: Most Americans comfortable with AI in healthcare

Survey: Most Americans comfortable with AI in healthcare
2024-08-21
COLUMBUS, Ohio – Artificial intelligence (AI) is all around us – from smart home devices to entertainment and social media algorithms. But is AI okay in healthcare? A new national survey commissioned by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most Americans believe it is, with a few reservations. The national poll of 1,006 people found: 75% believe using AI to minimize human errors is important. 71% would like AI to reduce wait times.  70% are comfortable with AI taking notes during an appointment. 66% believe ...

Students' toxin research shows public health benefits of citizen science 

2024-08-21
Long-term exposure to arsenic, a hidden danger in many New England drinking water supplies, poses serious health risks, including cancer and cognitive challenges. A groundbreaking citizen science initiative called "All About Arsenic" has emerged in response, empowering students and communities to tackle such health threats head-on. The benefits are detailed in a peer-reviewed article published today in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives. An accompanying commentary by researchers at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Reality check: making indoor smartphone-based augmented reality work

Overthinking what you said? It’s your ‘lizard brain’ talking to newer, advanced parts of your brain

Black men — including transit workers — are targets for aggression on public transportation, study shows

Troubling spike in severe pregnancy-related complications for all ages in Illinois

Alcohol use identified by UTHealth Houston researchers as most common predictor of escalated cannabis vaping among youths in Texas

Need a landing pad for helicopter parenting? Frame tasks as learning

New MUSC Hollings Cancer Center research shows how Golgi stress affects T-cells' tumor-fighting ability

#16to365: New resources for year-round activism to end gender-based violence and strengthen bodily autonomy for all

Earliest fish-trapping facility in Central America discovered in Maya lowlands

São Paulo to host School on Disordered Systems

New insights into sleep uncover key mechanisms related to cognitive function

USC announces strategic collaboration with Autobahn Labs to accelerate drug discovery

Detroit health professionals urge the community to act and address the dangers of antimicrobial resistance

3D-printing advance mitigates three defects simultaneously for failure-free metal parts 

Ancient hot water on Mars points to habitable past: Curtin study

In Patagonia, more snow could protect glaciers from melt — but only if we curb greenhouse gas emissions soon

Simplicity is key to understanding and achieving goals

Caste differentiation in ants

Nutrition that aligns with guidelines during pregnancy may be associated with better infant growth outcomes, NIH study finds

New technology points to unexpected uses for snoRNA

Racial and ethnic variation in survival in early-onset colorectal cancer

Disparities by race and urbanicity in online health care facility reviews

Exploring factors affecting workers' acquisition of exercise habits using machine learning approaches

Nano-patterned copper oxide sensor for ultra-low hydrogen detection

Maintaining bridge safer; Digital sensing-based monitoring system

A novel approach for the composition design of high-entropy fluorite oxides with low thermal conductivity

A groundbreaking new approach to treating chronic abdominal pain

ECOG-ACRIN appoints seven researchers to scientific committee leadership positions

New model of neuronal circuit provides insight on eye movement

Cooking up a breakthrough: Penn engineers refine lipid nanoparticles for better mRNA therapies

[Press-News.org] Research shows reducing future global flooding hinges on cutting greenhouse gas emissions