A new way to determine whether a species will successfully invade an ecosystem

(Press-News.org) CAMBRIDGE, MA -- When a new species is introduced into an ecosystem, it may succeed in establishing itself, or it may fail to gain a foothold and die out. Physicists at MIT have now devised a formula that can predict which of those outcomes is most likely.

The researchers created their formula based on analysis of hundreds of different scenarios that they modeled using populations of soil bacteria grown in their laboratory. They now plan to test their formula in larger-scale ecosystems, including forests. This approach could also be helpful in predicting whether probiotics or fecal microbiota treatments (FMT) would successfully combat infections of the human GI tract.

“People eat a lot of probiotics, but many of them can never invade our gut microbiome at all, because if you introduce it, it does not necessarily mean that it can grow and colonize and benefit your health,” says Jiliang Hu SM ’19, PhD ’24, the lead author of the study.

MIT professor of physics Jeff Gore is the senior author of the paper, which appears today in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution. Matthieu Barbier, a researcher at the Plant Health Institute Montpellier, and Guy Bunin, a professor of physics at Technion, are also authors of the paper.

Population fluctuations

Gore’s lab specializes in using microbes to analyze interspecies interactions in a controlled way, in hopes of learning more about how natural ecosystems behave. In previous work, the team has used bacterial populations to demonstrate how changing the environment in which the microbes live affects the stability of the communities they form.

In this study, the researchers wanted to study what determines whether an invasion by a new species will succeed or fail. In natural communities, ecologists have hypothesized that the more diverse an ecosystem is, the more it will resist an invasion, because most of the ecological niches will already be occupied and few resources are left for an invader.

However, in both natural and experimental systems, scientists have observed that this is not consistently true: While some highly diverse populations are resistant to invasion, other highly diverse populations are more likely to be invaded.

To explore why both of those outcomes can occur, the researchers set up more than 400 communities of soil bacteria, which were all native to the soil around MIT. The researchers established communities of 12 to 20 species of bacteria, and six days later, they added one randomly chosen species as the invader. On the 12th day of the experiment, they sequenced the genomes of all the bacteria to determine if the invader had established itself in the ecosystem.

In each community, the researchers also varied the nutrient levels in the culture medium on which the bacteria were grown. When nutrient levels were high, the microbes displayed strong interactions, characterized by heightened competition for food and other resources, or mutual inhibition through mechanisms such as pH-mediated cross-toxin effects. Some of these populations formed stable states in which the fraction of each microbe did not vary much over time, while others formed communities in which most of the species fluctuated in number.

The researchers found that these fluctuations were the most important factor in the outcome of the invasion. Communities that had more fluctuations tended to be more diverse, but they were also more likely to be invaded successfully.

“The fluctuation is not driven by changes in the environment, but it is internal fluctuation driven by the species interaction. And what we found is that the fluctuating communities are more readily invaded and also more diverse than the stable ones,” Hu says.

In some of the populations where the invader established itself, the other species remained, but in smaller numbers. In other populations, some of the resident species were outcompeted and disappeared completely. This displacement tended to happen more often in ecosystems when there were stronger competitive interactions between species.

In ecosystems that had more stable, less diverse populations, with stronger interactions between species, invasions were more likely to fail.

Regardless of whether the community was stable or fluctuating, the researchers found that the fraction of the original species that survived in the community before invasion predicts the probability of invasion success. This “survival fraction” could be estimated in natural communities by taking the ratio of the diversity within a local community (measured by the number of species in that area) to the regional diversity (number of species found in the entire region).

“It would be exciting to study whether the local and regional diversity could be used to predict susceptibility to invasion in natural communities,” Gore says.

Predicting success

The researchers also found that under certain circumstances, the order in which species arrived in the ecosystem played a role in whether an invasion was successful. When the interactions between species were strong, the chances of a species becoming successfully incorporated went down when that species was introduced after other species have already become established.

When the interactions are weak, this “priority effect” disappears and the same stable equilibrium is reached no matter what order the microbes arrived in.

“Under a strong interaction regime, we found the invader has some disadvantage because it arrived later. This is of interest in ecology because people have always found that in some cases the order in which species arrived matters a lot, while in the other cases it doesn't matter,” Hu says.

The researchers now plan to try to replicate their findings in ecosystems for which species diversity data is available, including the human gut microbiome. Their formula could allow them to predict the success of probiotic treatment, in which beneficial bacteria are consumed orally, or FMT, an experimental treatment for severe infections such as C. difficile, in which beneficial bacteria from a donor’s stool are transplanted into a patient’s colon.

“Invasions can be harmful or can be good depending on the context,” Hu says. “In some cases, like probiotics, or FMT to treat C. difficile infection, we want the healthy species to invade successfully. Also for soil protection, people introduce probiotics or beneficial species to the soil. In that case people also want the invaders to succeed.”

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The research was funded by the Schmidt Polymath Award and the Sloan Foundation.

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