How not to form a state: Research reveals how imbalanced social-ecological acceleration led to collapse in early medieval Europe

Understanding the acceleration of human impacts on the environment is key to addressing the complex planetary and social challenges of the Anthropocene. But even as the inter-relatedness of environmental, political, and social processes becomes clearer, the conditions that produce sustainable outcomes remain little understood. 

Now, a new study examines the acceleration of social-ecological changes in the first kingdom in Poland, the Piast dynasty, identifying the factors that contributed to its failure. Using new high-resolution pollen records, as well as historical and archaeological data, the study shows a period of rapid ecological change and wealth concentration, followed by a period of rewilding and the collapse of political structures. Using perspectives from complex systems theory, the authors argue that sustainable political systems require a balance between capital accumulation and social connectivity, and that a lack of social cohesion tipped the Piast state towards collapse.

The Piast dynasty was founded in the 900s CE, enabled by an influx of silver likely gained from the Eurasian slave trade. Pollen records cored from four locations in the Piast polity reveal that its foundation involved a rapid intensification of land use, marked by deforestation, increases in agricultural and fire activities, and the development of pasturelands. The territory expanded and the population near the core grew rapidly, suggesting that communities from conquered areas were forcibly resettled. 

Less than a century after its foundation, however, pollen records show that agricultural activity in the kingdom was decreasing and wild ecosystems were taking back over some areas. Hoards of silver shifted with the centers of power, but remained highly concentrated. Finally, in the 1030s, internal conflicts within the dynasty and foreign invasion by the Czech ruler Bretislav I marked the collapse of the Piast state and temporary disappearance of any major political structures in Poland. 

To explain the rapid rise and fall of the first Polish state, the authors turn to insights from the study of complex systems. The creation of the Piast dynasty, they argue, was based on a cycle of violence, expansion, and extraction. This cycle was fed by positive feedbacks, further fueling the state’s expansion. But for a complex system such as a state to reach stability, there must also be a cycle of negative feedbacks that hold the system together, slowing growth and providing balance.

“Despite its efforts to quickly create a Christian religious hierarchy, the Piast polity was not able to successfully exploit the cohesive power of religion,” says Adam Izdebski, lead author of the study, “nor did it develop a good mechanism of co-opting conquered populations and their elites.” 

Ultimately, the Piast elites had no pre-existing cultural, religious or political networks on which to base their emerging political system. Constrained by under-connectedness, technology, and demography, they couldn’t maintain the ecological intensification they initiated. This lack of reliable prior networks proved a fatal liability that revealed itself in the rapid collapse of the first Polish state.

As societies navigate the challenges of the Anthropocene, or grapple with the impacts of state expansionism, the resilience of political systems will be of increasing importance. The current study shows that sustainable states are those that balance their exploitation of ecological resources with internal societal connections.

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