(Press-News.org)
Embargoed until 02 May 2025
Researchers from the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam have unveiled DYNAMO-M, a groundbreaking global agent-based model that projects how farmers across the world’s coasts may respond to the growing threat of coastal flooding and salt intrusion due to sea level rise (SLR). The model, which will be presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025 in Vienna, offers new insights into the challenges faced by 13 million farming households globally.
Using decision-making logic rooted in discounted expected utility (DEU) theory, DYNAMO-M doesn’t just forecast physical impacts — it simulates real human choices: stay and absorb losses, adapt with salt-tolerant crops and elevated homes, or migrate inland. These decisions play out year by year, crop by crop, from 2020 through 2080, covering 23 major food crops in flood-prone areas worldwide. “Rising seas are forcing a decision: stay, adapt, or migrate,” says lead researcher Kushagra Pandey.
The stakes are enormous. Rising salinity and floodwaters are already slashing crop yields and farming income. DYNAMO-M identifies hotspots of future migration, with vulnerable coastal regions in Florida, New York, Oregon, Japan, China, the Philippines, and Italy likely to see major shifts in population and land use. Notably, the model also highlights areas within 1 in 100 year floodplains, which are at particular risk.
But it’s not all doom and displacement. The team also tested insurance schemes and government support policies in the model, revealing that smart interventions could significantly reduce the pressure to migrate and help communities stay and thrive despite the rising tides. “Small subsidies can significantly enhance adaptive capacity and reduce migration driven by sea-level rise,” continues Kushagra Pandey.
The findings push the frontier of climate risk modelling and offer actionable insights for governments, insurers, and global development agencies grappling with how to support frontline farming communities in a warming world. DYNAMO-M could be the missing link in understanding one of the most urgent and complex questions of our time: what happens when our farmlands flood — and the farmers have to choose what to do next.
For further information or inquiries, please contact Kushagra Pandey at kushagrapandey.bsky.social. The project website is www.coastmove.org.
Note to the media
When reporting on this story, please mention the EGU General Assembly 2025, which is taking place from 27 April – 02 May 2025. This paper will be presented in full [Session HS5.2.3] at EGU25 on Friday, 02 May, 09:03–09:05 (CEST) PICO spot 4, PICO4.10If reporting online, please include a link to the abstract: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-10487.html
Press contact: Asmae Ourkiya
EGU Press Contact
Asmae Ourkiya
Media and Communication Officer
media@egu.eu
More information:
The European Geosciences Union (EGU) is Europe’s premier geosciences union, dedicated to the pursuit of excellence in Earth, planetary, and space sciences for the benefit of humanity. It is a non-profit interdisciplinary learned association of scientists founded in 2002 with headquarters in Munich, Germany. The EGU publishes a number of diverse scientific journals, organizes several topical meetings, and runs education and outreach activities. Its annual General Assembly is the largest and most prominent European geosciences event, attracting over 18,000 scientists worldwide.
The EGU General Assembly 2025 is taking place in Vienna, Austria and online from 27 April – 02 May 2025. For more information and press registration, please visit EGU25 website.
About the EGU
The European Geosciences Union (EGU) is the leading organisation for Earth, planetary and space science research in Europe. With our partner organisations worldwide, we foster fundamental geoscience research, alongside applied research that addresses key societal and environmental challenges. Our vision is to realise a sustainable and just future for humanity and for the planet. The annual EGU General Assembly is the largest and most prominent European geosciences event, attracting over 19,000 scientists from all over the world. The meeting’s sessions cover a wide range of topics, including volcanology, planetary exploration, the Earth’s internal structure and atmosphere, climate, as well as energy and resources. For more information about the meeting please check media.egu.eu or follow EGU on social media.
END
Laundry is a major source of microplastic pollution into the environment, and in-line washing machine filters are one potential solution for preventing fibers from entering waterways. But how likely would people be willing to pay for them?
Portland State researchers surveyed a sample of registered voters and environmental interest groups in Oregon to gauge respondents' general knowledge and concerns surrounding microplastics, as well as their willingness to pay for high-efficiency washing machine filters. ...
DALLAS, May 2, 2025 — About 6.7 million adults in the U.S. are living with heart failure, and that number is expected to increase to more than 8 million by 2030.[1]
A new analysis published in Circulation: Heart Failure shows hospitals participating in the American Heart Association’s multiregional IMPLEMENT-HF™ initiative significantly improved adherence to guideline-directed medical therapy for patients hospitalized with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), the most common type of heart failure.
The American Heart Association, a global force changing the future of health for all, launched the three-year ...
Two studies at Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) focused on advancing pain management have received President’s Choice Awards from the American Society of Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine (ASRA). The awards recognize innovative research with significant potential to improve patient care, highlighting HSS’s leadership in developing safer, more effective approaches to pain control.
Study: Prevalence of cannabidiol use in patients undergoing sports medicine procedures on the knee, shoulder, or hip: A survey study
Researchers set out to determine the ...
Washington, D.C. – May 1, 2025 – New technology shows promise for restoring blood flow and advancing care for patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) and carotid artery stenosis (CAS). The data were presented today at the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography & Interventions (SCAI) 2025 Scientific Sessions.
Over the past 30 years, deaths from cardiovascular diseases have increased by 60%. There is a growing need for cardiovascular innovation with a focus on patient outcomes, whether that’s through advancements in technology, the use of digital therapeutics, or the research and development of revolutionary devices.
“Constant innovation ...
Washington, D.C. – May 2, 2025 – New analysis from the EARLY TAVR trial showed patients between the age of 65 and 70 years old derived the most benefits of a strategy of early intervention with transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) compared to other age groups, especially in regards to stroke risk, and in regards to the composite of death, stroke, and heart failure hospitalization. The late-breaking results were presented today at the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography & Interventions (SCAI) 2025 Scientific ...
Washington, D.C. – MAY 2, 2025 – New data from a large, international registry showed balloon-assisted anterior mitral leaflet modification (BATMAN) was safe, effective, and resulted in shorter procedure times among patients undergoing transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR). The data were presented today as late-breaking clinical research at the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography & Interventions (SCAI) 2025 Scientific Sessions.
An estimated four million people in the U.S. have mitral valve regurgitation (the most common form of heart ...
Background and Aims
Heme oxygenase 1 (HO-1) has an influential yet insufficiently investigated effect on Sirtuin 1 (SIRT1), a histone deacetylase activated by nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide, which may impact the transforming growth factor-β (TGF-ß)/Smad3 pathway in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related liver fibrosis. This study aimed to elucidate the regulation of NAFLD-related liver fibrosis induced by HO-1 through the SIRT1/TGF-ß/Smad3 pathway.
Methods
HO-1 induction and inhibition were established in C57BL/6J mice fed a methionine- and choline-deficient (MCD) diet. Additionally, wild-type mice were fed either ...
Mitochondrial diseases affect approximately 1 in 5,000 people worldwide, causing debilitating symptoms ranging from muscle weakness to stroke-like episodes. Some of these conditions result from mutations in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), the genetic material housed in these organelles. For patients with the common m.3243A>G mutation, which can cause MELAS syndrome (mitochondrial myopathy, encephalopathy, lactic acidosis, and stroke-like episodes) and diabetes mellitus, treatments remain limited. A fundamental challenge in mitochondrial disease research is that patients typically have a mix of both normal and mutated mtDNA within their cells. This ...
What is the secret to happiness? Does happiness come from within, or is it shaped by external influences such as our jobs, health, relationships and material circumstances? A new study published in Nature Human Behaviour shows that happiness can come from either within or from external influences, from both, or neither – and which is true differs across people.
People have long contemplated the sources of happiness. In recent years, efforts such as the World Happiness Report seek to improve wellbeing across the world.
“We have to understand the sources of happiness to build effective ...
Okazaki, Japan – The communication between the brain and bodily organs is fundamental to emotion regulation and overall mental health. The nucleus tractus solitarii (NTS) in the brainstem is a critical hub structure mediating this interaction via the vagus nerve. Despite its importance, the NTS's deep location has historically posed challenges for observation in living animals.
In a study recently published in Cell Reports Methods (April 4, 2025), the research team has developed the live NTS imaging method ...
