(Press-News.org) A new study published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology reveals how foot traffic data from mobile devices can enhance neighborhood-level COVID-19 forecasts in New York City. The research, led by researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and Dalian University of Technology, provides a novel approach to predicting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and improving targeted public health interventions during future outbreaks.
The COVID-19 pandemic hit New York City hard, with infection rates varying dramatically across neighborhoods. While some areas experienced rapid transmission, others saw lower transmission rates and cases, largely due to differences in socioeconomic factors, human behavior, and localized interventions.
To address these inequities, the researchers developed a forecasting model that accounts for neighborhood-level mobility patterns to provide accurate predictions of disease spread. They analyzed anonymized mobile location data to track foot traffic in restaurants, retail stores, and entertainment venues across 42 neighborhoods. By integrating these movement patterns with an epidemic model, they identified where and when outbreaks are likely to occur.
“Our analysis clearly shows how routine activities like dining out or shopping became major COVID-19 transmission pathways,” explains senior author Sen Pei, PhD, assistant professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia Mailman School. “These behavioral insights give our model significantly greater predictive power than conventional approaches.”
Precision Forecasting for Neighborhood COVID-19 Spread
This study demonstrates how neighborhood-level COVID-19 modeling can help address health disparities by identifying hyperlocal transmission patterns. The research reveals that crowded indoor spaces—particularly restaurants and bars—played a significant role in early pandemic spread. By integrating real-time mobility data, the team developed a behavior-driven model that outperforms traditional forecasting methods in predicting cases at the community level.
Another critical component is the model’s incorporation of seasonal effects. Researchers confirmed winter’s heightened transmission risk, linking it to lower humidity levels that prolong virus survival in air. This seasonal adjustment enables more accurate short-term predictions, giving public health officials crucial lead time to prepare for infection surges.
A Tool for Equitable Pandemic Response
The behavior-driven model could empower health departments to distribute testing and clinical resources and direct public health interventions where they’re needed most, ensuring protection reaches vulnerable neighborhoods first. By pinpointing exactly when and where transmission spikes will likely occur, the approach replaces guesswork with targeted prevention. For example, as cold weather drives people indoors, the model could identify gathering places that would require capacity restrictions.
Refining the Model for Future Outbreaks
While the behavior-driven model has proven effective, researchers note that real-world implementation requires further refinement. A key challenge lies in ensuring consistent access to high-quality mobility and case data—a limitation faced during the pandemic’s early phases when information streams were unreliable.
The researchers are now enhancing the model to incorporate adaptive behavior change in response to infections and its feedback on disease transmission. These improvements will be especially vital for the preparedness and response to future pandemics, enabling more precise predictions of disease spread patterns.
“This model’s success with COVID-19 opens new avenues for combating future outbreaks,” explains Pei. “By mapping disease transmission at the community level, we can arm New York City—and potentially other locations, too—with information to make more informed decisions as they prepare for and respond to emerging health threats.”
The study’s first author is Renquan Zhang, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China. Additional authors include Qing Yao, Wan Yang, Kai Ruggeri, and Jeffrey Shaman at Columbia; and Jilei Tai at Dalian University of Technology.
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation (DMS-2229605), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (75D30122C14289, U01CK000592), and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (NU38OT00297).
Jeffrey Shaman discloses partial ownership of SK Analytics and consulting for BNI. All other authors declare no competing interests.
END
Foot traffic can predict COVID-19 spread in New York City neighborhoods
2025-05-07
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
Janice R. Lachance, J.D., FASAE selected for top position of global earth and space science association
2025-05-07
WASHINGTON — The American Geophysical Union Board of Directors and Executive Search Committee is pleased to announce AGU’s new Executive Director and CEO will be Janice R. Lachance, J.D., Fellow of the American Society of Association Executives and the National Academy of Public Administration.
“Janice has served as an exceptional interim Executive Director and CEO during the last two years, said AGU President Brandon Jones, Ph.D. “She has demonstrated the leadership qualities ...
Eating ultra processed foods may speed up early signs of Parkinson's disease
2025-05-07
MINNEAPOLIS — People who eat more ultra processed foods like cold breakfast cereal, cookies and hot dogs are more likely to have early signs of Parkinson’s disease when compared to those who eat very few ultra processed foods, according to a study published in the May 7, 2025, online in Neurology®, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology. The study does not prove that eating more ultra processed foods causes early signs of Parkinson’s disease; it only shows an association.
Researchers looked for signs of prodromal Parkinson’s disease, which is the earliest stage, when neurodegeneration ...
Sleep apnea during REM sleep linked to memory-related brain changes
2025-05-07
MINNEAPOLIS — Obstructive sleep apnea, a condition that causes lower oxygen levels during sleep, is linked to degeneration of brain regions associated with memory through damage to the brain’s small blood vessels, according to a study published May 7, 2025, online in Neurology®, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology. The study found the brain changes were strongly associated with the severity of drops in oxygen levels during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. The study does not prove that sleep apnea causes this degeneration; it only shows an association.
Obstructive sleep apnea occurs when throat muscles relax during sleep, blocking ...
Vaccines of the future: harnessing the immune system for long-lasting protection
2025-05-07
WEHI scientists have uncovered a promising new way to enhance the effectiveness of vaccines by tapping into the potential of a specific type of immune cell, opening the door to long-lasting vaccines for viruses and enhanced cancer therapies.
The WEHI-led study used a novel approach combined with cutting-edge mRNA vaccine technology to increase the formation of a type of T cell which has remarkable self-renewing capacity and can remember threats for years and even decades.
The mouse-based study, published in the ...
GigaScience Press wins inaugural Crossref Metadata Award for highest quality publishing metadata standards for their journal GigaByte
2025-05-07
GigaScience Press is a winner of the inaugural Crossref Metadata Awards, recognising efforts in scholarly publishing metadata completeness and enrichment in their journal, GigaByte. Thanks to River Valley Technology’s state-of-the-art publishing platform, the journal was selected amongst over the nearly 150,000 journals from 22,000 members using Crossref infrastructure for having the highest metadata completeness in the small publishers category.
Presented for the first time at the Crossref Midyear ...
Eating disorders: The hidden health crisis on college campuses
2025-05-07
What does a person with an eating disorder look like? The picture may not be as clear-cut as many people think. Researchers at Washington University in St. Louis led a groundbreaking study with an important lesson: Eating disorders don’t discriminate.
“There’s been a perception that eating disorders mostly affect thin, white women,” said Ellen Fitzsimmons-Craft, an associate professor of psychological and brain sciences. “Our study of college students dispels that myth.”
The study, funded by a National Institute of Mental Health grant, surveyed 29,951 students from 26 colleges and universities, including ...
New study reveals striking differences in life expectancy across U.S. states
2025-05-07
New Haven, Conn. — A sweeping new study led by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health (YSPH) reveals stark disparities in life expectancy across U.S. states and Washington, D.C. over the past century – offering new insights into how a region’s public health policies, social conditions, and environmental factors can shape people’s lifespans.
Analyzing more than 179 million deaths between 1969 and 2020, the multi-institutional research team traced life expectancy trends by birth cohort — a more precise measure for following the life experiences of a population than traditional year-by-year summaries of mortality, which ...
Global study finds political left more trusting of climate scientists than right
2025-05-07
A sweeping 26-country study reveals a consistent gap in trust toward climate scientists based on political ideology, with right-leaning individuals reporting lower trust than their left-leaning counterparts. The divide is especially stark in wealthier democracies and English-speaking nations, according to the research, published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology (link is external and opens in a new window). The findings expand on past studies focused primarily on Western, English-speaking contexts.
“While climate scientists ...
New discovery shows how molecules can mute heat like music
2025-05-07
Imagine you are playing the guitar—each pluck of a string creates a sound wave that vibrates and interacts with other waves.
Now shrink that idea down to a small single molecule, and instead of sound waves, picture vibrations that carry heat.
A team of engineers and materials scientists in the Paul M. Rady Department of Mechanical Engineering at CU Boulder has recently discovered that these tiny thermal vibrations, otherwise known as phonons, can interfere with each other just like musical notes—either amplifying or canceling each other, depending on how a molecule is "strung" together.
Phonon ...
Dementia rates in China are rising disproportionately
2025-05-07
The burden of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias in China is higher than in most countries and increasing at a faster rate than the global average, according to a new study published May 7, 2025 in the open-access journal PLOS One by Siyu Liu and Daoying Geng of Fudan University, China.
Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias (ADD) are an increasingly serious global health issue, with rates rising worldwide. There is currently a lack of understanding of the disease burden and risk factors of ADD specifically in China, despite being one of the countries ...