JOURNAL ARTICLES
Exploring The Role of Air Mass Type and Weather on Shooting Incidents in New York City
Weather, Climate, and Society
Hot, dry air masses=increased gun violence in NYC. Previous studies have suggested that shootings increase during hot weather in New York City. This study looks at the overall characteristics of the air masses dominant over the city, yielding a more accurate picture of how weather relates to gun violence. The authors find that on the whole, “hotter, drier air masses tend to increase shootings, especially in the spring, while cooler, wetter air masses tend to decrease shootings, especially in the summer.”
Comparison of 2018–22 Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Before and After NOAA G-IV Missions
Weather and Forecasting
NOAA hurricane flights improve tropical cyclone track forecasts. Wind data from flights into tropical cyclones by the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet–such as Hurricane Hunter missions–improved forecasts of a storm’s path by up to 24% on average, based on 2018-2022 data. The authors ran model forecasts (using both U.S. and European models) with and without dropwindsonde data from Gulfstream flights, and found that the first track forecast to incorporate the data for a given cyclone saw the greatest improvement.
The Conditional Effects of Air Conditioning: How Air Conditioning Affects Climate Change Views by Partisanship in Los Angeles County
Weather, Climate, and Society
L.A. Republicans without air conditioning are more likely to be concerned about climate change. Data from the Los Angeles Barometer survey suggest that L.A.-area Republicans without access to air conditioning are “more likely to consider climate change a human-caused threat and more likely to support individual and government action to address climate change” compared with Republicans who had central air. Democrats did not show a similar divide.
The Cost of Weather-Related Traffic Collisions
Weather, Climate, and Society
Weather-related traffic accidents cost North Carolina. A study of 2013–19 data from North Carolina counties found that common adverse weather conditions like rain, wind, and extreme temperatures contributed to around 7,805 extra traffic collisions per year in the state, and around $961 million in costs to society. Different conditions have disparate impacts on collision outcomes for vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians, with each county seeing thousands to millions of dollars’ worth of costs per day of exposure to adverse weather.
Extreme Weather Experiences, Emotional Reactions to Messages, and Support for Pro-Climate Policies
Weather, Climate, and Society
Political conservatives who have experienced extreme weather are somewhat more receptive to climate communications. Using data from Pew’s American Trends Panel, the authors found that personal experiences with extreme weather may enhance political conservatives’ receptiveness to messages about climate action, moderating their emotional responses and subtly shifting their preferences around energy policy toward pro-climate positions.
Quantifying the Effects of the KULM Radar on Local Report Climatology, Operational Metrics, and Casualty Impacts of Tornadoes
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Increased tornado reports, fewer casualties followed installation of new weather radar. In 2016, the University of Louisiana Monroe began operating a Doppler radar in an area with previously poor radar coverage. Results indicate more than a seven-fold increase in the number of annual tornado reports, fewer false alarms, and a lower annual casualty rate. Investing in supplemental radars has the potential to improve National Weather Service warnings and provide public value.
Characterizing Rainfall and Land Surface Conditions Associated with Lightning-Initiated Wildfires
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Less rain, more lightning-sparked wildfires. A study of lighting-initiated wildfires (LIWs) in the United States found that LIWs were more likely after days of declining soil moisture with plants stressed by dryness. Rain rates were most important for determining whether LIWs would occur, but dry surface soil (with more water deep down) was also common at ignition sites.
Synthesis of Publications on the Anomalous June 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest, United States and Canada
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
2021 PNW heat wave: causes and effects. A synthesis of research on 2021’s Pacific Northwest heat wave found that “a persistent, extraordinarily strong ridge of high pressure was a primary driver,” with contributors like moisture from the tropical Pacific, high solar radiation, and unusually dry soils. Climate change contributed by increasing average temperatures, but it’s unclear whether it disproportionately increased temperature extremes. Mortality, heat-induced illness, and the number of visits to emergency departments during the 2021 heat wave were anomalously high, especially among older and low-income people, those who lived alone, and those without functioning a/c.
Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Electromagnetic Ducting as Diagnosed from Dropsondes
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Atmospheric rivers create channels for electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic ducting, in which atmospheric conditions create a layer that traps and channels electromagnetic waves, is crucial for radio wave propagation in communication, radar, and navigation systems. Analysis of data from Atmospheric River Reconnaissance flights finds that atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a significant role in determining the frequency and properties of electromagnetic ducts, suggesting that large changes in airmass density lead to deeper ducts that can trap larger wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation.
Global Land-Lake Thermal Contrast in a Warming World
Journal of Climate
Lakes’ weather impact may change with warming. Lakes exert strong influence on local weather and climate due to large differences in their temperature from that of nearby land (on average worldwide, across seasons and time of day, lakes are warmer than the land around them). This study suggests that under a high-emissions global warming scenario, warming of land surfaces will lead to lakes being on average cooler than surrounding land by the end of the century. Lake breezes are likely to intensify.
A Linear Analysis of the Heating Footprints of the US Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Northern Extratropical Synoptic Variability
Journal of Climate
Localized U.S. storm systems may alter weather as far away as Europe. A modeling study suggests that convective heating from mesoscale convective systems (thunderstorm complexes) over the United States could alter weather patterns as far away as the North Atlantic and Europe “for days or even longer.” Heat released from these storms can add energy to larger-scale weather patterns, with implications for regional and global climate.
NOAA/NASA/NSF research spotlights The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the parent agency of the National Weather Service. NOAA’s research arm, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, is threatened with elimination under 2026 budget plans, as is much of the research that takes place at the National Air and Space Administration (NASA) or is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). To help reporters understand some of the research that takes place through these funds and agencies, we are highlighting the additional recent publications below:
U.S.-based hurricane track forecasts for the North Atlantic are improving: While European hurricane models have been considered the most reliable globally, U.S. models have been catching up to them since 2019, this study finds. “Various FV3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core)-based models, including [the] National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System (GFS), [NCEP’s] newly operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), and [the] research-oriented Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD), have consistently demonstrated improved hurricane forecasts in the North Atlantic basin.”
Flights over the ocean help quantify climate change: Read about the NASA ACTIVATE mission, studying aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) over the northwest Atlantic, which represent the largest uncertainty in estimating total anthropogenic-radiative forcing (i.e., human contributions to climate change).
An accessible home for Antarctic research: Read about the NSF-funded Antarctic Meteorological Research and Data Center (AMRDC) Data Repository, which aims to house and archive current and future Antarctic meteorological research.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.
About AMS Journals
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.
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