Scenario projections of COVID-19 burden in the US, 2024-2025

JAMA Network Open

2025-09-18

(Press-News.org) About The Study: In this decision analytical modeling study of COVID-19 burden in the U.S. in 2024 to 2025, ensemble projections suggested that although vaccinating high-risk groups had substantial benefits in reducing disease burden, maintaining the vaccine recommendation for all individuals had the potential to save thousands more lives. Despite divergence of projections from observed disease trends in 2024 to 2025—possibly driven by variant emergence patterns and immune escape—averted COVID-19 burden due to vaccination was robust across immune escape scenarios, emphasizing the substantial benefit of broader vaccine availability for all individuals.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Sung-mok Jung, PhD, email sungmok@ad.unc.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.32469)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication.

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Scenario projections of COVID-19 burden in the US, 2024-2025

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