'Old' information theory makes it easier to predict flooding
2011-01-29
(Press-News.org) Many different aspects are involved in predicting high water and floods, such as the type of precipitation, wind, buildings and vegetation. The greater the number of variables included in predictive models, the better the prediction will be. However, the models will inevitably become increasingly more complex. PhD student from Delft University of Technology (TU Delft, The Netherlands) Steven Weijs uses basic insight from the information theory (Shannon's Information Theory) to demonstrate the cohesion between this added complexity, the information from observational data and the uncertainty of predictions. He will continue his research at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland thanks to funding from the prestigious AXA Research Fund Postdoctoral Fellowship.
Surprise
In his research, the Delft PhD student Steven Weijs shows how Shannon's Information Theory can also be applied to studying high water and flooding. Information theory, first devised in 1948 by Claude Shannon, sees information and uncertainty as numerical quantities, measured in 'bits', that correspond with the extent to which the recipient of a message is surprised by that message ('surprisal'). The level of surprisal depends on how likely the recipient considered the event to be: rain in the Netherlands, for example, is hardly a surprise, but seeing rain in the desert is highly unlikely and surprising and therefore provides more information.
Pumping engines
Steven Weijs analysed the way information flows through models used to make certain decisions about 'water' (switching pumping engines on and off, for example). The golden rule was: the greater the amount of information, the better the decision. In fact not only the flow of water, but also the flow of information from measurements, via models and predictions, to the final decision should be optimised. This would be achievable by assessing the models according to the amount of information comprised in their predictions.
Lausanne
Acquiring the AXA Research Fund Postdoctoral Fellowship means that after obtaining his PhD in Delft later this year, Weijs will be able to continue his research at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) in Switzerland.
TU Delft Works closely with the EPFL in the area of innovative measuring technology. The EPFL is currently focusing on collecting vast amounts of information about the weather and hydrology in the Val Ferret area. This is a pilot district where a lot of high-tech measuring equipment and sensor networks have been set up. The researchers hope that the information can be used to make more accurate predictions about flooding and enable better management of reservoirs to cope with high water levels.
Follow-up
In his follow-up research, Weijs will be applying the information theory to determine the best locations for setting up measuring equipment (and the best type of measuring equipment) in order to collect as much information as possible about possible flooding. The detailed measurements obtained from Val Ferret can also be used to design cheaper, less intensive sensor networks, which can be deployed on a larger scale in similar, larger areas and ultimately be used to make more accurate predictions of flooding in the Netherlands.
INFORMATION:
More information
Steven Weijs, s.v.weijs@tudelft.nl, +31 (0)15-2782345, Water Resources Management, TU Delft
www.wrm.tudelft.nl
The Environmental Fluid Mechanics lab, EPFL: http://eflum.epfl.ch/
Science Information Officer at TU Delft Roy Meijer, r.e.t.meijer@tudelft.nl, +31 (0)15 2781751
The AXA research fund www.axa-research.org/en/
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
2011-01-29
Exposure to worm infections in the womb may protect a newborn infant from developing eczema, a study funded by the Wellcome Trust suggests. A large trial in Uganda showed that treating a pregnant woman for worm infections increased her child's chances of developing the allergic skin disease.
Published this week in the journal Pediatric Allergy and Immunology, the research supports the so-called 'hygiene hypothesis', which proposes that exposure to infections in early childhood can modify the immune system and protect the child from allergies later in life.
The World ...
2011-01-29
After a spinal cord injury a number of factors impede the regeneration of nerve cells. Two of the most important of these factors are the destabilization of the cytoskeleton and the development of scar tissue. While the former prevents regrowth of cells, the latter creates a barrier for severed nerve cells. Scientists of the Max Planck Institute of Neurobiology in Martinsried and their colleagues from the Kennedy Krieger Institute and University of Miami in the United States, and the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, have now shown that the cancer drug Taxol reduces ...
2011-01-29
Plants are attacked by a multitude of insects and mammals. As defense against these herbivores they developed complex defense mechanisms over the course of evolution: spines, thorns, leaf hairs and a number of toxic chemical substances. For decades it has been controversially discussed whether the production of defense traits incurs costs to the plants. Now, using a new method the ecologists and plant biologists of the University of Zürich together with their American colleagues demonstrate these costs accurately in a Proceedings of the Royal Society article.
For their ...
2011-01-29
DETROIT – Light, or photodynamic, therapy can help preserve the voice and vocal cord function for patients with early stage laryngeal (voice box) cancer, according to a study from Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit.
"Photodynamic therapy is an effective treatment for early laryngeal squamous cell carcinomas, offering patients a less invasive option with fewer side effects than other therapies, while preserving the voice," says study co-author Vanessa G. Schweitzer, FACS, M.D., a senior staff physician in the Department of Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery at Henry Ford. ...
2011-01-29
"Fathers transmit their smoking habits to a statistically significant level to their sons, and the same is true of mothers and daughters. However, if a mother smokes it does not seem to impact on the probability of her son smoking, and similarly a father that smokes does not affect his daughter", Loureiro, a researcher at the Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (USC), in Spain, and co-author of the study, tells SINC.
The research, which has been published in the journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, is based on information from the British Household ...
2011-01-29
Participating in community service activities and helping others is not just good for the soul; it has a healing effect that helps alcoholics and other addicts become and stay sober, a researcher from Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine reports.
In a review article published in the Volume 29 issue of Alcoholism Treatment Quarterly, Maria E. Pagano, PhD, associate professor of psychiatry at the School of Medicine, sheds light on the role of helping in addiction recovery, using the program of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) as a prime example. She cites a growing ...
2011-01-29
ANN ARBOR, Mich.---DNA, that marvelous, twisty molecule of life, has an alter ego, research at the University of Michigan and the University of California, Irvine reveals.
On rare occasions, its building blocks "rock and roll," deforming the familiar double helix into a different shape.
"We show that the simple DNA double helix exists in an alternative form---for one percent of the time---and that this alternative form is functional," said Hashim M. Al-Hashimi, who is the Robert L. Kuczkowski Professor of Chemistry and Professor of Biophysics at U-M. "Together, these ...
2011-01-29
DETROIT – Using a novel surgical approach, it's possible to rebuild the trachea and preserve a patient's voice after removing an invasive throat tumor, according to a new report from Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit.
This case study is the first of its kind to not only document a successful technique to create a fully functional trachea, or windpipe, but also report a rare type of malignant tumor in an adult's trachea. Most commonly, this type of tumor is seen in newborns and very rarely occurs in the neck, says lead study author Samer Al-Khudari, M.D., with the Department ...
2011-01-29
Montreal, January 28, 2011 – The mystery began in 1976. Adolfo Pampena was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer that caused a strange combination of symptoms and was associated with the occurrence of multiple tumours in his stomach and colon. His medical team was stumped and was unable to answer the most important questions for him and his family: the cause of his disease and the risk for future generations.
Now, 35 years later, the answers are at hand thanks to a genetic study led by investigators at the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre (RI ...
2011-01-29
It is well known that teenagers take risks — and that when they do, they like to have company. Teens are five times more likely to be in a car accident when in a group than when driving alone, and they are more likely to commit a crime in a group.
Now, a new study sheds light on why.
Temple University psychologists Jason Chein and Laurence Steinberg set out to measure brain activity in adolescents, alone and with peers, as they made decisions with inherent risks. Their findings, published this month in Developmental Science, demonstrate that when teens are with friends ...
LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:
[Press-News.org] 'Old' information theory makes it easier to predict flooding