(Press-News.org)
ORANGE, Calif. — Feb. 24, 2026 — A new peer-reviewed study led Dr. Hesham El-Askary, Ph.D., professor of computational and data science at Chapman University, concludes that the saddle dam of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam shows significant vulnerabilities that if breached could threaten downstream communities, property, and infrastructure if urgent monitoring and mitigation steps are not taken.
The study integrates satellite data, hydrological modeling, and advanced geospatial analysis to identify several warning indicators:
Groundwater seepage: An estimated 41 ± 6.2 billion cubic meters (BCM) of reservoir water seeped into surrounding groundwater during filling, based on GRACE satellite data and hydrological modeling.
Emerging leakage zones: High-resolution satellite imagery detected new water zones near the saddle dam, suggesting seepage or leakage pathways that warrant immediate structural inspection.
Dam deformation: Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) revealed up to 40 millimeters of differential settlement, a potential indicator of structural instability.
Increased seismicity: Statistical modeling identified anomalous seismic activity spatially aligned with pre-existing fault systems, possibly linked to reservoir impoundment.
Dam-breach simulation: Flood modeling projects potential downstream flood depths of up to 34.7 meters, posing serious risks to communities in Sudan and Egypt, and threatening millions of residents.
“These findings do not predict imminent failure, but they do identify measurable warning signals that require urgent international attention and transparent safety evaluation,” said El-Askary. “The potential human and economic consequences of inaction are significant.”
By integrating multiple independent data sources, the research provides a comprehensive assessment of structural stability, groundwater dynamics and geohazard risk.
Constructed on Ethiopia’s Blue Nile River, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in Africa and has long been the focus of regional negotiations and international attention.
The study underscores the importance of enhanced international risk-monitoring frameworks, transparent data sharing, and proactive mitigation strategies to protect downstream populations and infrastructure.
“Our work aims to support science-based decision-making,” El-Askary said. “Large-scale infrastructure must be paired with rigorous monitoring systems to safeguard lives, property, and regional stability.”
You can read El-Askary’s full report in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction by clicking here.
xxx
About Chapman University
Founded in 1861, Chapman University is a nationally ranked private university in Orange, California, about 30 miles south of Los Angeles. Chapman serves nearly 10,000 undergraduate and graduate students, with a 12:1 student-to-faculty ratio. Students can choose from over 100 areas of study within 11 colleges for a personalized education. Chapman is categorized by the Carnegie Classification as an R2 “high research activity” institution. Students at Chapman learn directly from distinguished world-class faculty including Nobel Prize winners, MacArthur fellows, published authors and Academy Award winners. The campus has produced a Rhodes Scholar, been named a top producer of Fulbright Scholars, and hosts a chapter of Phi Beta Kappa, the nation’s oldest and most prestigious honor society. Chapman also includes the Harry and Diane Rinker Health Science Campus in Irvine. The university features the No. 4 film school and No. 66 business school in the U.S. Learn more about Chapman University: www.chapman.edu.
Media Contacts:
Bob Hitchcock, Director of Strategic Communications/PR | Chapman University | rhitchcock@chapman.edu | Cell: 407-388-4657
END
By Maddy Frank
Love is in the air for the vinegar fly. Drosophila melanogaster has long been a model for understanding how brains translate sensory information into courtship behavior. Male flies perform a multitude of romantic actions — orienting, tapping, chasing and singing — directed toward eligible females. While researchers know that things like pheromones and sound play essential roles in these rituals, the influence of vision has been thought to be fairly simple in comparison: spot the female, track her and follow.
A study published in February in G3 from Yehuda Ben-Shahar, a professor of biology in Art & Sciences ...
February 24, 2026— Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health has received an award as part of the PROactive Solutions for Prolonging Resilience (PROSPR) program within the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) to accelerate research on the biological hallmarks of aging. The project led by Daniel Belsky, PhD, associate professor of Epidemiology, will help identify interventions that can extend healthy years of life in humans.
While ...
Research shows nighttime drops in oxygen force fish to use more energy and could affect the health of entire reef ecosystems
Abu Dhabi, UAE: A new study from NYU Abu Dhabi has found that small coral reef fish in the Arabian Gulf are facing a hidden but growing source of stress. When oxygen levels drop at night, a common occurrence on some of the world’s hottest reefs, these fish must use extra energy just to recover the next day. Over time, this additional strain could impact their growth, survival, and the overall balance of reef ecosystems.
The research shows that even short nighttime drops in oxygen force the Gulf blenny, ...
Key points
The COVID-19 pandemic had an immediate effect on how educators at museums and science centers interacted with their audiences. Many began offering online programming for the first time while simultaneously grappling with budget shortfalls, staff layoffs and low morale.
Two inquiry-based studies had previously tracked the application of distance learning in museums. In a third study, recently published in the Quarterly Review of Distance Education, researchers assess the state of online museum programming three years after the pandemic’s onset to find out what worked ...
Beaver dams are critical to river health and a source of biodiversity. They create wetlands, slow water and improve water quality. They also reduce flood peaks and delay runoff.
But beaver dams are often blamed when extreme rainstorms cause flooding — especially when they fail.
This blame had serious consequences following the extraordinary rainstorms that hit Quebec’s Charlevoix region in 2005 and 2011 in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Irene. Flooding along the Port-au-Persil watershed caused considerable damage to a riverside inn downstream, leading its owners to successfully sue the Charlevoix-Est Regional County ...
Simon Fraser University researchers have uncovered concerning fibreglass contamination in a key estuary on Vancouver Island, raising concerns about how an as-yet overlooked contaminant could affect aquatic birds, marine life and coastal communities that rely on shellfish and seafood.
A new SFU study found fibreglass particles buried in the sediment and biofilm layers of the Cowichan Estuary, a 400-hectare intertidal ecosystem used by the Cowichan Tribes First Nations for generations. The areas is an internationally designated important bird area ...
A new study published in Ecological and Evolutionary Physiology reveals a surprising link between cellular aging markers and survival in black-legged kittiwakes (members of the gull family).
In “Who’s coming home? Shorter early-life telomeres predict return to the natal colony in an Arctic seabird” authors Jingqi Corey Liu, Olivier Chastel, Christophe Barbraud, Claus Bech, Pierre Blévin, Paco Bustamante, Børge Moe, Elin Noreen, and Frédéric Angelier found that kittiwake chicks with shorter telomeres were more likely to return to their birthplace as adults, contradicting predictions that longer telomeres would indicate better ...
Biologists have long wondered why caribou are the only deer in the world in which females, like males, have antlers.
A study of shed antlers collected from calving grounds in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge provides a new answer.
Calving grounds are areas where migratory females give birth every year and also where they shed their antlers. Researchers at the University of Cincinnati found evidence that caribou, particularly moms with newborns, gnaw on antlers that were shed years earlier to supplement their diets with crucial minerals.
The study ...
A new study sheds light on the behavior of yeast cells in the gut, paving the way for new lines of yeast that more efficiently produce therapeutic drugs tailored to address specific diseases.
“Yeast is promising as a drug-delivery platform,” says Nathan Crook, corresponding author of the study and an associate professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering at North Carolina State University. “Previous work has shown that yeast cells can be modified to produce specific molecules in the gut, such as therapeutics that ...
Key takeaways
Precious transition metals like platinum and palladium are used as catalysts to speed up chemical reactions that produce carbon-nitrogen bonds.
UCLA organic chemists have figured out how to make inexpensive phosphine act like a transition-metal catalyst by using a light-reactive molecule to activate it.
The achievement could be useful in the pharmaceutical industry and help bring down the price of some drugs.
A discovery by UCLA organic chemists may one day put catalytic converter thieves out of business. In new research, they’ve used ...
