Extra belly weight, not BMI, was a stronger predictor of heart failure risk, inflammation

American Heart Association EPI|Lifestyle Scientific Sessions 2026 – Moderated Poster Presentation MPTH72

2026-03-17

(Press-News.org) Research Highlights:

Excess fat stored around the waist (belly weight or visceral fat), indicated by measuring waist size, was more strongly associated with heart failure risk than body mass index (BMI). Systemic inflammation played a key role in the relationship between extra weight stored around the waist, or central obesity, and heart failure. About one-quarter to one-third of the link between abdominal fat and heart failure appeared to be explained by inflammation. The mediating role of inflammation in the association between central obesity and heart failure suggests that reducing inflammation levels may be a potential treatment strategy to reduce the risk of heart failure in these individuals. Note: The study featured in this news release is a research abstract. Abstracts presented at the American Heart Association’s scientific meetings are not peer-reviewed, and the findings are considered preliminary until published as a full manuscript in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. Embargoed until 4:00 p.m. ET/3:00 p.m. CT, Tuesday, March 17, 2026

BOSTON, March 17, 2026 — New research suggests that measures of excess weight around the waist (central obesity or visceral fat) may increase the risk of heart failure primarily due to inflammation, according to findings presented at the American Heart Association’s EPI|Lifestyle Scientific Sessions 2026. The meeting is in Boston, March 17-20, and offers the latest epidemiological science on prevention, lifestyle and cardiometabolic health.

In this study, researchers found that measurements of higher levels of visceral fat were more strongly linked to heart failure risk than overall body weight, and higher waist measurements identified higher risk even when body mass index (BMI) appeared normal. The study found that inflammation may help explain why belly fat is especially harmful to heart health, suggesting that where fat is stored in the body may matter more than weight. These findings point to opportunities to identify people at higher risk of heart failure using waist measurements rather than relying only on BMI.

“This research helps us understand why some people develop heart failure despite having a body weight that seems healthy,” said Szu-Han Chen, lead author of the study and a medical student at National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University in Taiwan. “By monitoring waist size and inflammation, clinicians may be able to identify people with higher risk earlier and focus on prevention strategies that could reduce the chance of heart failure before symptoms begin.”

According to a 2025 scientific statement from the American Heart Association focused on risk-based primary prevention of heart failure, systemic inflammation, or inflammation found throughout the body, is a common risk factor for heart disease because it can disrupt the immune system, damage blood vessels and lead to the build up of scar tissue in the heart. The Association has also highlighted evidence that higher levels of inflammation in the body are linked to an increased risk of heart disease, even in adults with normal cholesterol levels.

The study found:

112 adults developed heart failure during the median follow-up period of 6.9 years; elevated measurements of excess weight around the waist were associated with increased heart failure risk, while high BMI was not; higher waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio were each associated with increased heart failure risk; over the follow-up period of almost 7 years, participants with higher inflammation levels, as measured by blood tests, were more likely to experience heart failure; and inflammation accounted for about one-quarter to one-third of the link between measures of fat stored around the waist and heart failure risk. “This study highlights the importance of integrating measures of central adiposity such as waist circumference into routine preventive care. Understanding upstream drivers of heart failure risk including central adiposity is key to recognizing and modifying risk,“ said Sadiya S. Khan, M.D., M.Sc., FAHA, volunteer chair of the American Heart Association’s 2025 Scientific Statement: Risk-Based Primary Prevention of Heart Failure. “This study builds on prior research that highlights the importance of excess or dysfunctional adiposity in the development of heart failure, which informed the inclusion of body mass index into the PREVENT-HF risk equations to estimate risk of heart failure. However, future research should identify if central adiposity has greater predictive utility beyond strength of association.” Khan, who was not involved in the study, is also Magerstadt Professor of Cardiovascular Epidemiology and an associate professor of cardiology and preventive medicine at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago.

The researchers noted that they did not have access to participants’ heart failure subtypes, therefore, the findings are about all types of heart failure together. Future research should examine how visceral fat and inflammation relate to different types of heart failure and whether reducing inflammation can help prevent or reduce the risk of heart failure.

Study details, background and design:

Analysis included health data for 1,998 African American adults in three counties in urban and rural Jackson, Mississippi, enrolled in the Jackson Heart Study. Participants did not have heart failure at the time of enrollment in the Jackson Heart Study, 2000-2004. Participants were ages 35-84 years old at enrollment, with an average age of 58 years; 36% were women, and they were followed for a median of 6.9 years, through December 31, 2016. Researchers assessed participants’ body fat using measures including weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio. Blood samples were tested to measure high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, a commonly used marker of inflammation in the body. This study was conducted under the guidance of Professor Hao-Min Cheng at Taipei Veterans General Hospital and National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University. The American Heart Association recently launched the Systemic Inflammation Data Challenge to encourage collaboration and deepen understanding of how inflammation contributes to heart disease and related conditions including heart failure.

Co-authors, disclosures and funding sources are listed in the abstract.

Statements and conclusions of studies that are presented at the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association’s scientific meetings are solely those of the study authors and do not necessarily reflect the Association’s policy or position. The Association makes no representation or guarantee as to their accuracy or reliability. Abstracts presented at the Association’s scientific meetings are not peer-reviewed, rather, they are curated by independent review panels and are considered based on the potential to add to the diversity of scientific issues and views discussed at the meeting. The findings are considered preliminary until published as a full manuscript in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

The Association receives more than 85% of its revenue from sources other than corporations. These sources include contributions from individuals, foundations and estates, as well as investment earnings and revenue from the sale of our educational materials. Corporations (including pharmaceutical, device manufacturers and other companies) also make donations to the Association. The Association has strict policies to prevent any donations from influencing its science content and policy positions. Overall financial information is available here.

Additional Resources:

Multimedia is available on the right column of the release link. After March 17, view abstract 72 in the EPI|Lifestyle Scientific Sessions 2026 Online Program Planner American Heart Association Scientific Statement news release: More resources and collaboration needed to support prevention and treatment of obesity (Jan. 2026) American Heart Association news release: Data challenge explores inflammation’s hidden role in heart disease (June 2025) American Heart Association Scientific Statement: Risk-Based Primary Prevention of Heart Failure (April 2025) American Heart Association news release: Measure of body roundness may help to predict risk of cardiovascular disease (Sept. 2024) American Heart Association health information: Simple ways to reduce inflammation and protect your heart American Heart Association health information: What is Heart Failure? For more news from the meeting, follow us on X @HeartNews, #EPILifestyle26. The American Heart Association’s EPI|Lifestyle Scientific Sessions is the world’s premier meeting dedicated to the latest advances in population-based science. The meeting is Tuesday-Friday, March 17-20, 2026, in Boston. The primary goal of the meeting is to promote the development and application of translational and population science to prevent heart disease and stroke and foster cardiovascular health. The sessions focus on risk factors, obesity, nutrition, physical activity, genetics, metabolism, biomarkers, subclinical disease, clinical disease, healthy populations, global health, and prevention-oriented clinical trials. The Councils on Epidemiology and Prevention and Lifestyle and Cardiometabolic Health (Lifestyle) jointly planned the EPI|Lifestyle Scientific Sessions 2026. Follow EPI|Lifestyle Scientific Sessions 2026 on X at #EPILifestyle26.

About the American Heart Association

The American Heart Association is a relentless force for a world of longer, healthier lives. Dedicated to ensuring equitable health in all communities, the organization has been a leading source of health information for more than one hundred years. Supported by more than 35 million volunteers globally, we fund groundbreaking research, advocate for the public’s health, and provide critical resources to save and improve lives affected by cardiovascular disease and stroke. By driving breakthroughs and implementing proven solutions in science, policy, and care, we work tirelessly to advance health and transform lives every day. Connect with us on heart.org, Facebook, X or by calling 1-800-AHA-USA1.

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Extra belly weight, not BMI, was a stronger predictor of heart failure risk, inflammation

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