(Press-News.org) There will be nearly 1.3 million deaths from cancer in Europe in 2011 according to predictions from a study published in the cancer journal, Annals of Oncology today (Wednesday 9 February) [1].
The estimates, which have been reached after researchers used for the first time in Europe a new mathematical model for predicting cancer mortality, show a fall in overall cancer death rates for both men and women when compared to 2007. But they also highlight some areas of concern, particularly rising rates of lung cancer in women.
Researchers, led by Professor Carlo La Vecchia (MD) of the Department of Epidemiology at the Mario Negri Institute and the Faculty of Medicine, University of Milan (Italy), and Professor Fabio Levi (MD), Head of the Cancer Epidemiology Unit at the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois and University of Lausanne, (Switzerland), used data on cancer deaths in the European Union for the period 1970-2007 to calculate rates of death each year and to identify trends which they used to predict death rates for 2011.
They looked at overall rates in the EU (the EU was defined as the 27 member states as of January 2007), and also individual rates in six major EU countries: France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
They predicted there would be 1,281,466 cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 (721,252 men and 560,184 women), compared to 1,256,001 (703,872 men and 552,129 women) in 2007. When these figures are converted into world standardised rates per 100,000 of the population, this means there will be a fall from 153.8 per 100,000 to 142.8 per 100,000 in men, and from 90.7 to 85.3 in women – a drop of 7% in men and 6% in women – since 2007.
However, the number of women dying from lung cancer is increasing steadily everywhere apart from in the UK, which has had the highest rates in women for a decade and is now seeing a levelling off. In the EU as a whole, world standardised death rates from lung cancer in women have gone up from 12.55 per 100,000 of the female population in 2007 to 13.12 in 2011. Lung cancer has overtaken breast cancer as the first cause of cancer death in Polish women, as well as in women from the UK. The number of women who will die from lung cancer this year in the UK is 15,632 (compared to 14,900 in 2007); this represents a slight drop in the death rate from 20.57 per 100,000 women in 2007 to 20.33 in 2011. In Poland, 6,343 women will die from lung cancer this year compared to 5,643 in 2007, and this represents an increase in the death rate from 15.53 per 100,000 women to 16.60 in 2011.
The overall downward trend in cancer death rates is driven mainly by falls in breast cancer mortality in women, and lung and colorectal cancer in men. "Lung, colorectal and breast cancers are the top causes of cancer deaths, and these are showing major changes," said Prof La Vecchia.
Declines in mortality from other major cancers such as stomach, uterus, prostate and leukaemia are likely to be seen in 2011, say the researchers. A worrying increase in deaths from pancreatic cancer in women, which had been observed in 2004, appears to have levelled off.
"Pancreatic cancer mortality is favourably influenced by the decline in smoking in men, but unfavourably influenced by the increased prevalence of obesity and diabetes," said Prof La Vecchia.
In their study the authors write: "A substantial decline in total cancer mortality rates has been observed since the late 1980s in men and since even earlier in women in the EU. Between 1990-94 and 2000-04 the rates declined by 9% in men…. and by 8% in women….In men the decline has continued in 2007 and will likely carry on up to 2011, and the greatest drop is predicted in Germany. For women too, the declines persist, but the trend in Polish women is less favourable. Given that Poland has the highest total cancer mortality rates in both sexes, the lack of improvement is particularly worrying. In France the predicted decline is also modest, although the 2011 rate in French women remains the second lowest after Spain. This is due to the recent unfavourable trends in lung cancer among French and Spanish women."
Prof La Vecchia concluded: "Despite these favourable trends in cancer death rates in Europe the number of cancer deaths remains approximately stable, due to the ageing of the population. Further, there is a persisting gap in cancer mortality between central and eastern European countries compared to western Europe, and this is likely to persist for the foreseeable future."
The researchers plan to repeat the study to predict cancer deaths for 2012. They believe that such predictions can help countries to plan their allocation of resources and strategies for preventing, treating and managing cancer.
###
Notes:
[1] "European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011". Annals of Oncology. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdq774
[2] The study was funded by the Swiss Cancer League and the Italian Association for Cancer Research.
Researchers predict nearly 1.3 million cancer deaths in Europe in 2011
2011-02-09
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
Childhood cancer research in danger
2011-02-09
At a time when the effects of paediatric oncology research have meant that more and more children survive cancer, its funding is too low and dependent on short-term grants to be able to sustain this improvement in the long-term, says a report supported by the EU-funded 7th Framework Programme project Eurocancercoms and published on-line in ecancer today*. The authors also looked at the citation impact of paediatric oncology papers and found that childhood cancer research is once again the poor relation; unlike cancer papers in general, paediatric oncology papers received ...
Using pharmacist-directed service improves quality of care for patients
2011-02-09
DETROIT ¬– A Henry Ford Hospital study has found that a pharmacist-directed anticoagulation service improves the way medication is managed for patients with heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT), a common but life-threatening thromboembolic disorder.
Researchers found that patients treated by the anticoagulation service had a favorable response to alternative anticoagulant drugs three times faster and were 32 percent more likely to receive proper dosage than patients who were treated with the same drugs by the patient's primary medical team.
This is the first time ...
Increased levels of cardiac enzymes after heart bypass associated with increased mortality
2011-02-09
Researchers at Mount Sinai School of Medicine have found that even small amounts of damage to heart muscle during coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with an increased risk of death, even among patients who initially do well following surgery. The study is published in the February 9 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
Small elevations of troponin and creatine phosphokkinase – chemicals called enzymes that are released by heart muscle cells when they are damaged – have often been dismissed as unimportant. But Mount Sinai ...
Polar bear births could plummet with climate change
2011-02-09
University of Alberta researchers Péter Molnár, Andrew Derocher and Mark Lewis studied the reproductive ecology of polar bears in Hudson Bay and have linked declining litter sizes with loss of sea ice.
The researchers say projected reductions in the number of newborn cubs is a significant threat to the western Hudson Bay polar-bear population, and if climate change continues unabated the viability of the species across much of the Arctic will be in question.
Using data collected since the 1990s researchers looked at the changing length of time Hudson Bay is frozen ...
Turning bacteria against themselves
2011-02-09
Bacteria often attack with toxins designed to hijack or even kill host cells. To avoid self-destruction, bacteria have ways of protecting themselves from their own toxins.
Now, researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have described one of these protective mechanisms, potentially paving the way for new classes of antibiotics that cause the bacteria's toxins to turn on themselves.
Scientists determined the structures of a toxin and its antitoxin in Streptococcus pyogenes, common bacteria that cause infections ranging from strep throat to life-threatening ...
Speedy generic approval may not benefit consumers as much as expected, Rotman model shows
2011-02-09
Toronto – Faster approval times for generic drugs will get them into consumers' hands quicker, but may not make the price any better, a pricing and marketing researcher has found.
A mathematical model created by Andrew Ching shows that fewer firms enter the marketplace because the chances of getting there first and commanding the best profits are dramatically smaller when drug approval times are shorter. Ching is an associate professor of marketing at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management.
Using the drug clonidine, Prof. Ching's model showed the number ...
Combining brain imaging, genetic analysis may help identify people at early risk of Alzheimer's
2011-02-09
For Immediate Release – February 8, 2011 - (Toronto) – A new study from the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH) has found evidence suggesting that a variation of a specific gene may play a role in late-onset Alzheimer's, the disease which accounts for over 90% of Alzheimer's cases. This innovative study has combined genetics and brain imaging to determine who may be at risk for developing late-onset Alzheimer's disease long before symptoms appear.
The gene, which is called brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), is crucial to maintaining healthy function of ...
Eggs are now naturally lower in cholesterol
2011-02-09
Park Ridge, IL (February 8, 2011) – According to new nutrition data from the United States Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS), eggs are lower in cholesterol than previously thought. The USDA-ARS recently reviewed the nutrient composition of standard large eggs, and results show the average amount of cholesterol in one large egg is 185 mg, 14 percent lower than previously recorded. The analysis also revealed that large eggs now contain 41 IU of vitamin D, an increase of 64 percent.
"We collected a random sample of regular large shell eggs ...
Single-cell marine predator's unique survival mechanisms revealed: UBC research
2011-02-09
University of British Columbia researchers have uncovered the unique survival mechanisms of a marine organism that may be tiny, but in some ways has surpassed sharks in its predatory efficiency.
Published today in the journal Nature Communications, the research team's portrait of the microscopic dinoflagellate Oxyrrhis marina reveals a predator so efficient that it has even acquired a gene from its prey.
NB: A microscopic photo of Oxyrrhis marina is available at http://www.publicaffairs.ubc.ca/?p=17636.
"It's an interesting case of Lateral Gene Transfer, or the movement ...
Hope for stroke victims
2011-02-09
Much of the devastation of stroke and head trauma is due to damage caused the overproduction of a substance in the brain called glutamate. Preventing this damage has been impossible, until now, as many drugs don't cross the so-called blood-brain barrier, and those that do often don't work as intended. But a method originally devised at the Weizmann Institute of Science may, in the future, offer a way to avert such glutamate-induced harm.
Prof. Vivian I. Teichberg of the Institute's Neurobiology Department first demonstrated a possible way around these problems in 2003. ...