(Press-News.org) ANN ARBOR, Mich.---Extreme flooding of the Mississippi River this spring is expected to result in the largest Gulf of Mexico "dead zone" on record, according to a University of Michigan aquatic ecologist and his colleagues.
The 2011 forecast, released today by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), calls for a Gulf dead zone of between 8,500 and 9,421 square miles, an area roughly the size of New Hampshire.
The most likely 2011 scenario, according to U-M's Donald Scavia, is a Gulf dead zone of at least 8,500 square miles, surpassing the current record of 8,400 square miles, set in 2002. The average over the past five years is about 6,000 square miles.
"Stream flows were nearly double normal during May, delivering massive amounts of nutrients to the Gulf, and that's what drives the dead zone," said Scavia, Special Counsel to the U-M President for Sustainability, director of the Graham Sustainability Institute, and a professor at the School of Natural Resources and Environment.
Farmland runoff containing fertilizers and livestock waste---some of it from as far away as the Corn Belt---is the main source of the nitrogen and phosphorus that cause the annual Gulf of Mexico oxygen-starved, or hypoxic, zone. Each year in late spring and summer, these nutrients flow down the Mississippi River and into the Gulf, fueling explosive algae blooms there.
When the algae die and sink, bottom-dwelling bacteria decompose the organic matter, consuming oxygen in the process. The result is an oxygen-starved region in bottom and near-bottom waters: the dead zone.
This year, stream-flow rates in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers were nearly double normal during May 2011, significantly increasing the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus transported by the rivers into the Gulf.
According to U.S. Geological Survey estimates, 164,000 metric tons of nitrogen were transported in May 2011 to the northern Gulf, off the Louisiana coast. The amount of nitrogen transported to the Gulf in May 2011was 35 percent higher than average May nitrogen loads estimated in the last 32 years.
The amount of nitrogen entering the Gulf each spring has increased about 300 percent since the 1960s, mainly due to increased agricultural runoff, Scavia said.
"Yes, the floodwaters really matter, but the fact that there's so much more nitrogen in the system now than there was back in the '60s is the real issue," he said. Scavia's computer model suggests that if today's floods contained the level of nitrogen from the last comparable flood, in 1973, the predicted dead zone would be 5,800 square miles rather than 8,500.
"The growth of these dead zones is an ecological time bomb," Scavia said. "Without determined local, regional and national efforts to control them, we are putting major fisheries at risk." The Gulf of Mexico/Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task Force has set the goal of reducing the size of the dead zone to about 1,900 square miles.
In 2009, the dockside value of commercial fisheries in the Gulf was $629 million. Nearly 3 million recreational fishers further contributed more than $1 billion to the Gulf economy, taking 22 million fishing trips.
The Gulf hypoxia research team is supported by NOAA's Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research and includes scientists from the University of Michigan, Louisiana State University and the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium. NOAA has funded investigations and forecast development for the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico since 1990.
"While there is some uncertainty regarding the size, position and timing of this year's hypoxic zone in the Gulf, the forecast models are in overall agreement that hypoxia will be larger than we have typically seen in recent years," said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco.
The actual size of the 2011 Gulf hypoxic zone will be announced following a NOAA-supported monitoring survey led by the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium between July 25 and Aug. 2.
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Related links:
Don Scavia's hypoxia forecasts: http://snre.umich.edu/scavia/hypoxia-forecasts/
NCCOS Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone Research for Management: http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/extremeevents/hab/features/hypoxiafs_report1206.aspx
NOAA Dead Zone Fact Sheet: http://www.noaa.gov/factsheets/new%20version/dead_zones.pdf
END
Philadelphia, PA, June 14, 2011 – Frostbite can be a minor injury or a life-threatening condition. In the June issue of Wilderness & Environmental Medicine, a panel of experts has published evidence-based practice guidelines issued by the Wilderness Medical Society (WMS) for the prevention and treatment of frostbite to guide clinicians and disseminate knowledge about best practices.
"Frostbite can be a devastating injury that afflicts many people who are in the prime of their lives," commented Scott McIntosh, MD, MPH, lead author, member of the WMS Board of Directors, ...
A University of Iowa study found that women who make their sexual debut as young teens are more likely to divorce, especially if "the first time" was unwanted, or if she had mixed feelings about it.
Published in the April issue of the Journal of Marriage and Family, the analysis found that 31 percent of women who had sex for the first time as teens divorced within five years, and 47 percent divorced within 10 years. The divorce rate for women who delayed sex until adulthood was far lower: 15 percent at five years, and 27 percent at 10 years.
Author Anthony Paik, associate ...
Lord Justice Jackson's proposed litigation cost reforms are likely to have a far ranging impact on personal injury law in the UK.
At present the losing party in a personal injury claim will usually pay both the relevant insurance costs and the success fee that a personal injury solicitor can charge in a successful no-win, no-fee claim. The successful claimant may also keep 100% of the damages awarded if agreed with their solicitor.
In a recent survey carried out by the lobbying group Access to Justice, 77% of personal injury claimants admitted that they would not ...
Today's television programs are designed to trigger your emotions and your mind through your senses of sound and sight. But what if they could trigger a few more? What if you could smell or taste the cheesy slices of pizza being eaten by your favorite characters on TV? Is it possible? Would audiences enjoy the experience? Would advertisers jump on the opportunity to reach consumers in a new way?
These questions formed the basis of a two year experiment by researchers at the University of California, San Diego, conducted in collaboration with Samsung Advanced Institute ...
Though it is known that PDI inhibitors can prevent HIV infection, just how this happens has remained a mystery. And though it has been known that PDI, which normally lives inside the cell, can become entrapped on the cell's surface, it has not been understood how this happens.
Now, in a new study, UCLA researchers report that a sugar-binding protein called galectin-9 traps PDI on T-cells' surface, making them more susceptible to HIV infection.
IMPACT:
The findings could lead researchers to a potential new target for anti-HIV therapeutics, such ...
Contact: Eivind Ystrom, Ph.D.
eivind.ystrom@fhi.no
47-990-01-730 (Norway)
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Alexis Edwards, Ph.D.
aedwards5@vcu.edu
804-828-8591
Virginia Commonwealth University
Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research
Oft-used DSM diagnosis of alcohol dependence shows reliability
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Characteristics relevant to the disorder – number ...
Before making the vital decision of which personal injury solicitor you contact, there are a few pieces of information that you should be clear on regarding the incident in question.
If you believe that you have been the victim of an act of medical negligence or personal injury visit your General Practitioner as soon as possible for supportive evidence of your injuries. If involved in a traffic accident the same applies and injuries should be documented in a medical report for potential use in your case
If the circumstances dictate (such as a traffic or pedestrian ...
Contact: J. Kim Penberthy, Ph.D.
jkp2n@virginia.edu
434-243-0570
University of Virginia School of Medicine
Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research
Motivation to change, confidence to resist temptation, should tailor alcohol-dependence treatment
People seeking help for their alcohol or other drug problems enter treatment with very different levels of motivation to change. Differences in motivation appear to make a critical difference in which patients seek, comply with, and complete treatment. Findings from a study of the extent to which motivation and ...
Contact: Rebecca J. Howard, Ph.D.
reba@mail.utexas.edu
512-232-2487
The University of Texas at Austin
Gregg Homanics, Ph.D.
homanicsge@anes.upmc.edu
412-648-8172
University of Pittsburgh
Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research
Understanding alcohol's damaging effects on the brain
While alcohol has a wide range of pharmacological effects on the body, the brain is a primary target. However, the molecular mechanisms by which alcohol alters neuronal activity in the brain are poorly understood. Participants in a symposium at the June 2010 annual ...
HOUSTON - (June 15, 2011) – When Noah and Alexis Beery were diagnosed with cerebral palsy at age 2, their parents thought they at last had an answer to the problems that had plagued their twin infants from birth. However, that proved only a way station on a journey to find an answer to the children's problems that combined their mother's determination, the high tech world of next-generation sequencing in the Baylor Human Genome Sequencing Center (http://www.hgsc.bcm.tmc.edu/) (HGSC) and the efforts of talented physicians from across the country.
In a report in the current ...
