PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Every cloud has a silver lining: Weather forecasting models could predict brain tumor growth

2011-12-21
(Press-News.org) Every cloud has a silver lining: weather forecasting models could predict brain tumor growth

Ever wondered how meteorologists can accurately predict the weather? They use complex spatiotemporal weather models, i.e. mathematical equations that track the motions of the atmosphere through time and space, and combine them with incoming data streams from weather stations and satellites. Now, an innovative new study published in BioMed Central's open access journal Biology Direct has determined that the mathematical methodology used to assimilate data for weather forecasting could be used to predict the spread of brain tumors.

The authors from the Arizona State University and the Barrow Neurological Institute, Arizona, USA, wanted to prove that mathematical methods used in weather prediction could be useful in clinical situations – not just in brain cancer, but also in other cancers and diseases. They chose to study glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), a malignant brain cancer.

GBM is the most common and most aggressive type of brain cancer. Despite treatment, average patient survival is less than 15 months from initial diagnosis, and it is largely resistant to chemo- and radiotherapy. GBM can quickly invade large, sensitive regions of the brain, which makes it almost impossible to remove via surgery and almost certain to recur afterwards. Because little progress has been made in this area, GBM is an important area to study, and is a particularly good cancer against which to test a mathematical model, as its dynamics involve complex geometry.

In addition to setting out to prove that good quantitative predictions of GBM growth and spread are possible, the authors wanted to provide uncertainty estimates. An algorithm previously developed for numerical weather prediction – a modern state estimation algorithm known as a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) – was applied to two different mathematical models of the growth and spread of glioblastoma. Synthetic magnetic resonance images of a hypothetical tumor were used for this purpose.

Data assimilation techniques were then used to update the state vector, i.e. the initial condition of the glioblastoma growth model, by combining new observations with one or more prior forecasts. They then measured the feasibility of the model in individual patient cases for making short-term (60-day) forecasts of GBM spread and growth.

Despite this being a preliminary study, the authors were successful in demonstrating the feasibility of LETKF for short-term, clinically relevant predictions of the growth and spread of malignant brain tumors. LETKF forecasting and data assimilation provides an accurate and computationally efficient way of updating the initial condition (state vector) of a complex spatiotemporal model with new quantitative measurements. The intelligent model can also take into account likely errors in model parameters and measurement uncertainties in magnetic resonance imaging.

Mark Preul, one of the leaders of the study, believes that LETKF should be considered for future efforts that use mathematical models for clinical purposes in individual patient cases. He said, "Though work remains before our approach can be seriously considered in clinical settings, an accurate forecast system for glioblastoma may prove useful for treatment planning and patient counseling."

### Media Contact

Dr Hilary Glover Scientific Press Officer, BioMed Central
Tel: 44-20-3192-2370
Mob: 44-778-698-1967
Email: hilary.glover@biomedcentral.com

Notes to Editors

1. Accurate State Estimation from Uncertain Data and Models: An Application of Data Assimilation to Mathematical Models of Human Brain Tumors. Eric J Kostelich, Yang Kuang, Joshua M McDaniel, Nina Z Moore, Nikolay L Martirosyan and Mark C Preul Biology Direct (in press)

Please name the journal in any story you write. If you are writing for the web, please link to the article. All articles are available free of charge, according to BioMed Central's open access policy.

Article citation and URL available on request at press@biomedcentral.com on the day of publication.

2. Biology Direct is an Open Access, peer-reviewed journal that considers original research articles, hypotheses, comments, discovery notes and reviews in selected subject areas, and will eventually cover the full spectrum of biology.

3. BioMed Central (http://www.biomedcentral.com/) is an STM (Science, Technology and Medicine) publisher which has pioneered the open access publishing model. All peer-reviewed research articles published by BioMed Central are made immediately and freely accessible online, and are licensed to allow redistribution and reuse. BioMed Central is part of Springer Science+Business Media, a leading global publisher in the STM sector.



ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Get ready for spring - hay fever worse in spring than summer

2011-12-21
Hay fever (runny nose, sneezing, itchy eyes) is caused by an allergy to pollen, and most commonly to grass pollen. These tiny grains bring misery to sufferers through spring and summer and pollen levels are often included as part of weather reports to help sufferers prepare. However new research published in BioMed Central's open access journal Clinical and Translational Allergy shows that, regardless of medication and other allergies, for the same grass pollen levels, hay fever symptoms are worse in the first half of the season than later on. Worldwide there are over ...

New candidate vaccine neutralizes all tested strains of malaria parasite

2011-12-21
A new candidate malaria vaccine with the potential to neutralise all strains of the most deadly species of malaria parasite has been developed by a team led by scientists at the University of Oxford. The results of this new vaccine independently confirm the utility of a key discovery reported last month from scientists at the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute who had identified this target within the parasite as a potential 'Achilles' heel' that could hold significant promise for vaccine development. According to the World Malaria Report 2010, malaria killed an estimated ...

Can nerve growth factor gene therapy prevent diabetic heart disease?

2011-12-21
Diabetes is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and can reduce blood supply to the heart tissue and damage cardiac cells, resulting in heart failure. New research has investigated if nerve growth factor (NGF) gene therapy can prevent diabetic heart failure and small vascular disease in mice. The study by Professor Costanza Emanueli, British Heart Foundation Senior Research Fellow and colleagues of the Bristol Heart Institute in the Regenerative Medicine Section of the School of Clinical Sciences at the University of Bristol is published online in Diabetes, ...

Fame is more likely to kill rock stars, not being 27 years old

2011-12-21
The list of well known musicians who have died at age 27 may look like more than a coincidence – Amy Winehouse, Jim Morrison, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Kurt Cobain, and Brian Jones to name a few – but their age is unlikely to have been the cause of their demise, according to research in the Christmas issue published on bmj.com today. While fame may increase the risk of death for musicians, probably due to their rock and roll lifestyle, this risk is not limited to age 27, say the authors led by Adrian Barnett from Queensland University of Technology in Australia. To ...

Salt policy makers eat too much salt at work

2011-12-21
Salt policy makers in the Netherlands are consuming more than the average daily recommended salt intake of 6 grams in one hot meal at their work canteens, finds a study in the Christmas issue published on bmj.com today. The authors, led by Dr Lizzy Brewster at the University of Amsterdam, say the policy makers eating at their staff canteens were consuming around 15.4 grams of salt a day. They warn that this amount of salt, compared to the recommended intake, translates to up to a 36% increase in premature death. Excess salt intake is estimated to cause 30% of all high ...

Doctors should stop using the phrase 'obs stable' in hospital notes

2011-12-21
The phrase "obs stable" in hospital notes is ambiguous and does not reliably indicate a patient's health status, concludes a study in the Christmas issue published on bmj.com today. Dr Gregory Scott and colleagues argue that the phrase is potentially misleading and advise doctors to stop using it and write the observations in full. The expression "obs stable" is written daily in hospital notes to indicate that there are no alarming problems with a patient's bedside nursing observations. Abnormalities in these observations act as an alarm for doctors when assessing ...

Could cod liver oil help combat tuberculosis?

2011-12-21
A review of a historical study from 1848 reveals that cod liver oil was an effective treatment for tuberculosis, says Professor Sir Malcolm Green in the Christmas issue published on bmj.com today. In the study, carried out by physicians at the Hospital for Consumption, Chelsea (now the Royal Brompton Hospital), 542 patients with consumption (tuberculosis) received standard treatment with cod liver oil. These patients were compared with 535 'control' patients who received standard treatment alone (without cod liver oil). While improvement rates were similar in the two ...

'Head-first' diversity shown to drive vertebrate evolution

Head-first diversity shown to drive vertebrate evolution
2011-12-21
The history of evolution is periodically marked by explosions in biodiversity, as groups of species try out a wide range of shapes and sizes. With a new analysis of two such adaptive radiations in the fossil record, researchers have discovered that these diversifications proceeded head-first. By analyzing the physical features of fossil fish that diversified around the time of two separate extinction events, scientists from the University of Chicago and the University of Oxford found that head features diversified before body shapes and types. The discovery disputes previous ...

Intertops Poker Hosting Christmas Tourneys - Bounty, Free Roll, Guaranteed and Giving 50% Reload Bonus Next Week

Intertops Poker Hosting Christmas Tourneys - Bounty, Free Roll, Guaranteed and Giving 50% Reload Bonus Next Week
2011-12-21
After the gifts have been unwrapped and the turkey is reduced to leftovers, Intertops Poker has a full schedule of Christmas poker tournaments to keep the festivities going. Bounty, free roll and guaranteed tournaments begin Christmas day and continue throughout the week. A 50% (up to $300) reload bonus is also available until next Wednesday. Intertops Christmas Poker Tournament Schedule: Sunday, December 25th -- NL Hold'em $500 Added Bounty Tourney Monday, December 26th -- NL Hold'em $1500 Guaranteed Double-Chance Deepstack Tourney Tuesday, December 27th -- PL Omaha ...

Ironing out the details of the Earth's core

Ironing out the details of the Earths core
2011-12-21
PASADENA, Calif. -- Identifying the composition of the earth's core is key to understanding how our planet formed and the current behavior of its interior. While it has been known for many years that iron is the main element in the core, many questions have remained about just how iron behaves under the conditions found deep in the earth. Now, a team led by mineral-physics researchers at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) has honed in on those behaviors by conducting extremely high-pressure experiments on the element. "Pinpointing the properties of iron ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

New research boosts future whooping cough vaccines

Mechanistic understanding could enable better fast-charging batteries

No bones about it: new details about skeletal cell aging revealed

UNM scientists discover how nanoparticles of toxic metal used in MRI scans infiltrate human tissue

UMaine research examines best methods for growing Atlantic sea scallops

Medical cannabis could speed recovery, especially at community recovery homes

Study assesses U.S. image amid weakening of democracy

Two scientific researchers to receive 2025 Ralph L. Sacco Scholarships for Brain Health

Researchers improve chemical reaction that underpins products from foods to fuels

Texas Tech to develop semiconductor power devices through $6 million grant

Novel genomic screening tool enables precision reverse-engineering of genetic programming in cells

Hot Schrödinger cat states created

How cells repair their power plants

Oxygen is running low in inland waters—and humans are to blame

ACP’s Best Practice Advice addresses use of cannabis, cannabinoids for chronic noncancer pain

Beyond photorespiration: A systematic approach to unlocking enhanced plant productivity

How a small number of mutations can fuel outbreaks of western equine encephalitis virus

Exposure to wildfire smoke linked with worsening mental health conditions

Research uncovers hidden spread of one of the most common hospital-associated infections

Many older adults send their doctors portal messages, but who pays?

Fine particulate matter from 2020 California wildfires and mental health–related emergency department visits

Gender inequity in institutional leadership roles in US academic medical centers

Pancreatic cells ‘remember’ epigenetic precancerous marks without genetic sequence mutations

Rare combination of ovarian tumors found in one patient

AI-driven clinical recommendations may aid physician decision making to improve quality of care

Artificial intelligence has potential to aid physician decisions during virtual urgent care

ACP and Annals of Internal Medicine present breaking scientific news at ACP’s Internal Medicine Meeting 2025

New study reveals polymers with flawed fillers boost heat transfer in plastics

Signs identified that precede sudden arrhythmic death syndrome in young people

Discovery of bacteria's defence against viruses becomes a piece of the puzzle against resistance

[Press-News.org] Every cloud has a silver lining: Weather forecasting models could predict brain tumor growth