(Press-News.org) Local weather patterns temporarily influence people's beliefs about evidence for global warming, according to research by political scientists at New York University and Temple University. Their study, which appears in the Journal of Politics, found that those living in places experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures at the time they were surveyed were significantly more likely than others to say there is evidence for global warming.
"Global climate change is one of the most important public policy challenges of our time, but it is a complex issue with which Americans have little direct experience," wrote the study's co-authors, Patrick Egan of New York University and Megan Mullin of Temple University. "As they try to make sense of this difficult issue, many people use fluctuations in local temperature to reassess their beliefs about the existence of global warming."
Their study examined five national surveys of American adults sponsored by the Pew Research Center: June, July, and August 2006, January 2007, and April 2008. In each survey, respondents were asked the following question: "From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not?" On average over the five surveys, 73 percent of respondents agreed that the earth is getting warmer.
Egan and Mullin wondered about variation in attitudes among the survey's respondents, and hypothesized that local temperatures could influence perceptions. To measure the potential impact of temperature on individuals' opinions, they looked at zip codes from respondents in the Pew surveys and matched weather data to each person surveyed at the time of each poll. They used local weather data to determine if the temperature in the location of each respondent was significantly higher or lower than normal for that area at that time of year.
Their results showed that an abnormal shift in local temperature is associated with a significant shift in beliefs about evidence for global warming. Specifically, for every three degrees Fahrenheit that local temperatures in the past week have risen above normal, Americans become one percentage point more likely to agree that there is ''solid evidence'' that the earth is getting warmer. The researchers found cooler-than-normal temperatures have similar effects on attitudes—but in the opposite direction.
The study took into account other variables that may explain the results—such as existing political attitudes and geography—and found the results still held.
The researchers also wondered if heat waves—or prolonged higher-than-normal temperatures—intensified this effect. To do so, they looked at respondents living in areas that experienced at least seven days of temperatures of 10° or more above normal in the three weeks prior to interview and compared their views with those who experienced the same number of hot days, but did not experience a heat wave.
Their estimates showed that the effect of a heat wave on opinion is even greater, increasing the share of Americans believing in global warming by 5.0 to 5.9 percentage points.
However, Egan and Mullin found the effects of temperature changes to be short-lived—even in the wake of heat waves. Americans who had been interviewed after 12 or more days had elapsed since a heat wave were estimated to have attitudes that were no different than those who had not been exposed to a heat wave.
"Under typical circumstances, the effects of temperature fluctuations on opinion are swiftly wiped out by new weather patterns," they wrote. "More sustained periods of unusual weather cause attitudes to change both to a greater extent and for a longer period of time. However, even these effects eventually decay, leaving no long-term impact of weather on public opinion."
The findings make an important contribution to the political science research on the relationship between personal experience and opinion on a larger issue, which has long been studied with varying results.
"On issues such as crime, the economy, education, health care, public infrastructure, and taxation, large shares of the public are exposed to experiences that could logically be linked to attitude formation," the researchers wrote. "But findings from research examining how these experiences affect opinion have been mixed. Although direct experience—whether it be as a victim of crime, a worker who has lost a job or health insurance, or a parent with children in public schools—can influence attitudes, the impact of these experiences tends to be weak or nonexistent after accounting for typical predictors such as party identification and liberal-conservative ideology."
"Our research suggests that personal experience has substantial effects on political attitudes," Egan and Mullin concluded. "Rich discoveries await those who can explore these questions in ways that permit clean identification of these effects."
###Egan is an assistant professor in the Wilf Family Department of Politics at NYU and Mullin is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Temple University.
Local weather patterns affect beliefs about global warming, NYU and Temple researchers find
2012-07-26
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
New method to encourage virtual power plants for efficient renewable energy production
2012-07-26
Researchers from the University of Southampton have devised a novel method for forming virtual power plants to provide renewable energy production in the UK.
In the last decade, small and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind farms and solar panels, have begun to appear in greater numbers in the electricity supply network (Grid).
To ensure that energy demand is met without interruptions, the Grid requires power suppliers to provide an estimate of their production and the confidence in meeting that estimate. Depending on the confidence placed on the estimates, ...
It's a bird, not a plane: York U study finds migrating songbirds depart on time
2012-07-26
TORONTO, July 25, 2012 – A new study by York University researchers finds that songbirds follow a strict annual schedule when migrating to their breeding grounds – with some birds departing on precisely the same date each year.
The study, published in the journal PLoS ONE, is the first to track the migration routes and timing of individual songbirds over multiple years. Researchers outfitted wood thrushes with tiny geolocator "backpacks," recording data on their movements.
Spring departure dates of birds heading from the tropics to North American breeding grounds were ...
Adolescent sexual behavior tied to motion picture sexual content exposure, says MU researcher
2012-07-26
COLUMBIA, Mo. — Young people who watch more sexual content from movies also tend to engage in more sexual behavior and begin sexual activity at an earlier age, according to a University of Missouri researcher's study.
"We can't say that watching sexual content in movies is directly responsible for adolescents' sexual behavior," said Ross O'Hara, currently a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Missouri, who conducted the research with other psychological scientists while at Dartmouth College. "However, there is a correlation between the two. Sensation seeking, or ...
Newfound gene may help bacteria survive in extreme environments
2012-07-26
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. -- In the days following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, methane-eating bacteria bloomed in the Gulf of Mexico, feasting on the methane that gushed, along with oil, from the damaged well. The sudden influx of microbes was a scientific curiosity: Prior to the oil spill, scientists had observed relatively few signs of methane-eating microbes in the area.
Now researchers at MIT have discovered a bacterial gene that may explain this sudden influx of methane-eating bacteria. This gene enables bacteria to survive in extreme, oxygen-depleted environments, ...
Identifying the arrogant boss
2012-07-26
VIDEO:
Are all bosses arrogant?
Click here for more information.
Akron, Ohio, July 25, 2012 – Arrogant bosses can drain the bottom line because they are typically poor performers who cover up their insecurities by disparaging subordinates, leading to organizational dysfunction and employee turnover.
A new measure of arrogance, developed by researchers at The University of Akron and Michigan State University, can help organizations identify arrogant managers before they have ...
Protected areas face threats in sustaining biodiversity, Penn's Daniel Janzen and colleagues report
2012-07-26
PHILADELPHIA — Establishing protection over a swath of land seems like a good way to conserve its species and its ecosystems. But in a new study, University of Pennsylvania biologist Daniel Janzen joins more than 200 colleagues to report that protected areas are still vulnerable to damaging encroachment, and many are suffering from biodiversity loss.
"If you put a boundary around a piece of land and install some bored park guards and that's all you do, the park will eventually die," said Janzen, DiMaura Professor of Conservation Biology in Penn's Department of Biology. ...
Citizen science helps unlock European genetic heritage
2012-07-26
A University of Sheffield academic is helping a team of citizen scientists to carry out crucial research into European genetic heritage.
Citizen Scientists are not required to have a scientific background or training, but instead they possess a passion for the subject and are increasingly being empowered by the scientific community to get involved in research.
Dr Andy Grierson, from the University of Sheffield's Institute for Translational Neuroscience (SITraN), has helped a team of citizen scientists from Europe and North America to identify vital new clues to tell ...
Medical follow-up in celiac disease is less than optimal
2012-07-26
Follow-up exams for patients with celiac disease are often inadequate and highly variable, according to a new study in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA).
"In the group of celiac disease patients that we observed, we found that very few of them had medical follow-up that would be in keeping with even the most lax interpretation of current guidelines," said Joseph A. Murray, MD, AGAF, of Mayo Clinic and lead author of this study. "Doctors and patients need to be aware of ...
Global expansion all about give and take, study finds
2012-07-26
EAST LANSING, Mich. — The key to successful global business expansion is spreading operations across multiple countries, rather than trying to dominate a region or market, according to a new study led by Michigan State University researchers.
In addition, since global expansion is costly for service industries, manufacturing industries will profit most, said Tomas Hult, director of MSU's International Business Center.
Led by Hult and Ahmet Kirca, associate professor of marketing, the study is the largest ever conducted to examine the effect of multinationality on firm ...
Spatial skills may be improved through training, new review finds
2012-07-26
Spatial skills--those involved with reading maps and assembling furniture--can be improved if you work at it, that's according to a new look at the studies on this topic by researchers at Northwestern University and Temple.
The research published this month in Psychological Bulletin, the journal of the American Psychological Association, is the first comprehensive analysis of credible studies on such interventions.
Improving spatial skills is important because children who do well at spatial tasks such as putting together puzzles are likely to achieve highly in science, ...