Twitter data crunching: The new crystal ball
Scientists have devised a means to predict the outcome of election-based processes such as TV talent shows through the big data analysis of tweets
2012-08-29
(Press-News.org) Fabio Ciulla from Northeastern University, Boston, USA, and his colleagues demonstrated that the elimination of contestants in TV talent shows based on public voting, such as American Idol, can be anticipated. They unveiled the predictive power of microblogging Twitter signals--used as a proxy for the general preference of an audience--in a study recently published in EPJ Data Science¹.
The authors considered the voting system of these shows as a basic test to assess the predictive power of Twitter signals. They relied on the overlap between Twitter users and show audience to collect extremely detailed data on social behaviour on a massive scale. This approach provided a unique and unprecedented opportunity to apply network science to social media. Social phenomena can thus be studied in a completely unobtrusive way. Previously, Twitter has already been used to forecast epidemics spreading, stock market behaviour and election outcomes with varying degrees of success.
In this study, the authors demonstrated that the Twitter activity during the time span limited to the TV show airing and the voting period following it correlated with the contestants' ranking. As a result, it helped predict the outcome of the votes. This approach offers a simplified version helping to analyse complex societal phenomena such as political elections. Unlike previous voting systems, Twitter offers a quantitative indicator that can act as proxy for what is occurring around the world in real time, thereby anticipating the outcome of future events based on opinions.
Ciulla and colleagues also showed that the fraction of tweets that included geolocalisation information enabled to internationally map the fan base of each contestant. They identified a strong influence by the geographical origin of the votes, suggesting a different outcome to the show, if voting had not been limited to US voters.
INFORMATION:
Reference
1. F. Ciulla, D. Mocanu, A. Baronchelli, B. Goncalves, N. Perra, A. Vespignani (2012). Beating the news using Social Media: the case study of American Idol. European Physical Journal Data Science; DOI 10.1140/epjds8
For more information, please visit www.epj.org
The full-text article is available to journalists on request.
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
2012-08-29
Turning the volume up too high on your headphones can damage the coating of nerve cells, leading to temporary deafness; scientists from the University of Leicester have shown for the first time.
Earphones or headphones on personal music players can reach noise levels similar to those of jet engines, the researchers said.
Noises louder than 110 decibels are known to cause hearing problems such as temporary deafness and tinnitus (ringing in the ears), but the University of Leicester study is the first time the underlying cell damage has been observed.
The study has ...
2012-08-29
Oxford, August 29, 2012 - The Moon is believed to have formed from a collision, 4.5 billion years ago, between Earth and an impactor the size of Mars, known as "Theia." Over the past decades scientists have simulated this process and reproduced many of the properties of the Earth-Moon system; however, these simulations have also given rise to a problem known as the Lunar Paradox: the Moon appears to be made up of material that would not be expected if the current collision theory is correct. A recent study published in Icarus proposes a new perspective on the theory in ...
2012-08-29
Implantable devices for treating cardiac arrhythmias, which include ICDs, are already underused in parts of Eastern and Central Europe and there is a risk that the financial crisis could exacerbate the problem. The European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), a registered branch of the ESC, is tackling this issue through ICD for Life. The initiative aims to raise awareness about the importance of ICDs and sudden cardiac death in countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
ICD implantation rates in Europe vary widely, ranging from 1 ICD implantation per million inhabitants in ...
2012-08-29
The 2012 expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation was developed by the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), a registered branch of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), and the European Cardiac Arrhythmia Society (ECAS) and published in their respective journals: Heart Rhythm, EP Europace (1) and the Journal of Interventional Cardiovascular Electrophysiology (JICE).
Since the previous consensus document was published in 2007 catheter and surgical ablation of AF have become standard treatments ...
2012-08-29
Aplastic anaemia is characterised by a reduction in the number of the bone marrow cells that go on to form the different cell types present in blood (essentially red blood cells, white blood cells and platelets). In most cases, the causes of the disorder are hard to determine, but some patients have been found to have genetic alterations leading to a shortening of their telomeres (the end regions of chromosomes that protect and stabilise DNA).
A team at the Spanish National Cancer Research Centre (CNIO) led by María Blasco has successfully created a transgenic mouse model ...
2012-08-29
KANSAS CITY, MO—As the national waistline expands, so do pools of intra-cellular fat known as lipid droplets. Although most of us wish our lipid droplets would vanish, they represent a cellular paradox: on the one hand droplets play beneficial roles by corralling fat into non-toxic organelles. On the other, oversized lipid droplets are associated with obesity and its associated health hazards.
Until recently researchers understood little about factors that regulate lipid droplet size. Now, a study from the Stowers Institute of Medical Research published in an upcoming ...
2012-08-29
ANN ARBOR, Mich.—Rising sea levels, melting glaciers, more intense rainstorms and more frequent heat waves are among the planetary woes that may come to mind when climate change is mentioned. Now, two University of Michigan researchers say an increased risk of avian influenza transmission in wild birds can be added to the list.
Population ecologists Pejman Rohani and Victoria Brown used a mathematical model to explore the consequences of altered interactions between an important species of migratory shorebird and horseshoe crabs at Delaware Bay as a result of climate ...
2012-08-29
The analysis was conducted using five editions of the EHRA White Book, which is produced by the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), a registered branch of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).
The EHRA White Book reports on the current status of arrhythmia treatments in the 54 ESC member countries and has been published every year since 2008. Data is primarily provided by the national cardiology societies and working groups of cardiac pacing and electrophysiology of each ESC country. Prospective data is collected on catheter ablation and on implantation of cardiovascular ...
2012-08-29
The registry is part of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) of surveys and registries.
Today's presentation reveals current usage of the most modern TAVI valves and catheters in Europe, and compares indications, techniques and outcomes between different countries. "TAVI is a new technology which has been introduced in Europe but many question marks remain on which patients are most suitable," said Professor Di Mario. "We set up this registry because it was important to have a clear picture of clinical practice in Europe. ...
2012-08-29
Fampridine (trade name Fampyra®) has been approved in Germany since July 2011 for adult patients suffering from a higher grade walking disability (grades 4 to 7 on the EDSS disability status scale), as a result of multiple sclerosis (MS). The German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) has assessed the added benefit of the drug pursuant to the Act on the Reform of the Market for Medicinal Products (AMNOG). According to the findings, there is no proof of added benefit, as the manufacturer's dossier contains no evaluable study data for the comparison ...
LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:
[Press-News.org] Twitter data crunching: The new crystal ball
Scientists have devised a means to predict the outcome of election-based processes such as TV talent shows through the big data analysis of tweets
