(Press-News.org) Sifting through social media messages has become a popular way to track when and where flu cases occur, but a key hurdle hampers the process: how to identify flu-infection tweets. Some tweets are posted by people who have been sick with the virus, while others come from folks who are merely talking about the illness. If you are tracking actual flu cases, such conversations about the flu in general can skew the results.
To address this problem, Johns Hopkins computer scientists and researchers in the university's School of Medicine have developed a new tweet-screening method that not only delivers real-time data on flu cases, but also filters out online chatter that is not linked to actual flu infections. Comparing their method, which is based on analysis of 5,000 publicly available tweets per minute, to other Twitter-based tracking tools, the Johns Hopkins researchers say their real-time results track more closely with government disease data that takes much longer to compile.
"When you look at Twitter posts, you can see people talking about being afraid of catching the flu or asking friends if they should get a flu shot or mentioning a public figure who seems to be ill," said Mark Dredze, an assistant research professor in the Department of Computer Science who uses tweets to monitor public health trends. "But posts like this don't measure how many people have actually contracted the flu. We wanted to separate hype about the flu from messages from people who truly become ill."
Dredze, who also is a research scientist at the Johns Hopkins Human Language Technology Center of Excellence, led a team that in mid-2011 released one of the first and most comprehensive studies showing that Twitter data can yield useful public health information. Since then, this strategy has become so popular that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services last summer sponsored a contest challenging researchers to design an online application that could track major disease outbreaks.
This winter, as the United States entered an unusually severe and early flu season, Twitter-based flu projections have drawn increasing attention. Many public tweets, such as, "I'm so sick this week with the flu," can indicate a rise in the flu rate. Collecting enough of these tweets can help health officials gauge the scope and severity of an epidemic.
But the reliability of many computer models can be weakened by too many tweets that point to flu-related news reports and other matters not directly linked to a specific flu case, said David Broniatowski, a School of Medicine postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Emergency Medicine's Center for Advanced Modeling in the Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences.
"For example," he said, "a recent spike in Twitter flu activity was caused by discussions about basketball legend Kobe Bryant's flu-like symptoms during a recent game. Mr. Bryant's health notwithstanding, such tweets do very little to help public health officials prepare our nation for the next big outbreak."
To improve their accuracy when using tweets to track the flu, the John Hopkins team developed sophisticated statistical methods based on human language processing technologies. The methods are designed to filter out the chatter. The system can distinguish, for example, between "I have the flu" and "I'm worried about getting the flu."
Another advantage of the Johns Hopkins flu projection method is that it can produce real-time results. By comparison, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which record flu-related symptoms from hospital visits, typically take two weeks to publish data on the flu's prevalence.
To check the reliability of their enhanced system, the Johns Hopkins researchers recently compared their results to CDC data for the same period. The researchers said that during November and December 2012, their system demonstrated a substantial improvement in tracking with CDC figures as compared to previous Twitter-based tracking methods. "In late December," Dredze added, "the news media picked up on the flu epidemic, causing a somewhat spurious rise in the rate produced by our Twitter system. But our new algorithm handles this effect much better than other systems, ignoring the spurious spike in tweets."
The researchers have also used their Twitter data to produce United States maps that document the stark differences between last year's mild flu season and the much higher incidence of the virus in the winter of 2012-2013.
While their new method was only recently developed, the Johns Hopkins researchers chose to release information on the flu tracking system because of the higher incidence of illness this winter. Team members hope to share the enhanced flu tracking method with leading government health agencies.
"This new work demonstrates that Twitter posts can be used to guide public health officials in their response to outbreaks of infectious diseases," Dredze said. "Our hope is that the new technology can be used track other diseases as well."
INFORMATION:
Other Johns Hopkins researchers participating in the Twitter flu project are doctoral student Michael Paul and recent bachelor's degree graduate Alex Lamb, both in the Department of Computer Science.
The Johns Hopkins researchers noted that their enhanced Twitter flu analysis system looked only at public tweets in which all user names and gender information had been removed. The system was tested only on messages from the United States. The research was funded in part by the National Institutes of Health's Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study.
View a video produced by Twitter about Johns Hopkins' use of tweets to track public health trends here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmDIh-YS0GI
Read an earlier news release about Johns Hopkins' use of tweets to track public health trends at: http://releases.jhu.edu/2011/07/06/tracking-public-health-trends-from-twitter-messages/
Color U.S. flu maps and video available; contact Phil Sneiderman.
Related links:
Human Language Technology Center of Excellence at Johns Hopkins:
http://hltcoe.jhu.edu
Mark Dredze's website: http://www.cs.jhu.edu/~mdredze/
Johns Hopkins Department of Computer Science: http://www.cs.jhu.edu/
Center for Advanced Modeling in The Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences:
http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/emergencymedicine/center_for_advanced_modeling/
Using Twitter to track the flu: A better way to screen the Tweets
2013-01-29
[Attachments] See images for this press release:
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
Climate change projected to alter Indiana bat maternity range
2013-01-29
Research by US Forest Service scientists forecasts profound changes over the next 50 years in the summer range of the endangered Indiana bat. In an article published in the journal Ecology and Evolution, Forest Service Southern Research Station researchers Susan Loeb and Eric Winters discuss the findings of one of the first studies designed to forecast the responses of a temperate zone bat species to climate change.
The researchers modeled the current maternity distribution of Indiana bats and then modeled future distributions based on four different climate change scenarios. ...
New look at cell membrane reveals surprising organization
2013-01-29
LIVERMORE, CALIF. — A new way of looking at a cell's surface reveals the distribution of small molecules in the cell membrane, changing the understanding of its organization.
A novel imaging study by researchers from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the University of Illinois and the National Institutes of Health revealed some unexpected relationships among molecules within cell membranes.
Their findings provide a new way of studying cell structure and ultimately its function.
Led by Mary Kraft of the University of Illinois, Peter Weber of Lawrence Livermore ...
Eating bright-colored fruits and vegetables may prevent or delay ALS
2013-01-29
New research suggests that increased consumption of foods containing colorful carotenoids, particularly beta-carotene and lutein, may prevent or delay the onset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The study, published by Wiley in Annals of Neurology, a journal of the American Neurological Association and Child Neurology Society, found that diets high in lycopene, beta-cryptoxanthin, and vitamin C did not reduce ALS risk.
Carotenoids give fruits and vegetables their bright orange, red, or yellow colors, and are a source of dietary vitamin A. Prior studies report that ...
Scientists trick iron-eating bacteria into breathing electrons instead
2013-01-29
Scientists have developed a way to grow iron-oxidizing bacteria using electricity instead of iron, an advance that will allow them to better study the organisms and could one day be used to turn electricity into fuel. The study will be published on January 29 in mBio®, the online open-access journal of the American Society for Microbiology.
The method, called electrochemical cultivation, supplies these bacteria with a steady supply of electrons that the bacteria use to respire, or "breathe". It opens the possibility that one day electricity generated from renewable sources ...
Early menopause may occur in women with BRCA gene, new study finds
2013-01-29
Women with harmful mutations in the BRCA gene, which put them at higher risk of developing breast and ovarian cancer, tend to undergo menopause significantly sooner than other women, allowing them an even briefer reproductive window and possibly a higher risk of infertility, according to a study led by researchers at UC San Francisco.
Moreover, the study showed that carriers of the mutation who are heavy smokers enter menopause at an even earlier age than non-smoking women with the mutation.
While the authors note that further research is needed, given the size and ...
Study demonstrates health benefits of coming out of the closet
2013-01-29
Lesbians, gays and bisexuals (LGBs) who are out to others have lower stress hormone levels and fewer symptoms of anxiety, depression, and burnout, according to researchers at the Centre for Studies on Human Stress (CSHS) at Louis H. Lafontaine Hospital, affiliated with the University of Montreal. Cortisol is a stress hormone in our body. When chronically strained, cortisol contributes to the 'wear and tear' exerted on multiple biological systems. Taken together, this strain is called "allostatic load". "Our goals were to determine if the mental and physical health of lesbians, ...
The Pros and Cons of Chapter 13 Bankruptcy
2013-01-29
The pros and cons of Chapter 13 bankruptcy
Chapter 13 bankruptcy, which is often referred to as reorganization bankruptcy or wage earner's bankruptcy, is a very different process from Chapter 7 "liquidation" bankruptcy. Unlike Chapter 7, which often requires filers to surrender certain assets in order to have their debts discharged, people who file for Chapter 13 bankruptcy typically do not have to give up any of their property to get out of debt. For this reason, some people find Chapter 13 to be a more appealing approach to dealing with unmanageable debt.
What ...
Teen Jailed After Facebook Drunk Driving Admission
2013-01-29
Teen jailed after Facebook drunk driving admission
A teen driver recently found himself in hot water -- and in jail -- after posting on Facebook about his New Year's Eve drunk driving escapades.
According to several major news outlets, an 18-year-old Oregon resident was arrested after posting the following message to his Facebook profile early on New Year's Day:
"Drivin drunk... classic ;) but to whoever's vehicle i hit i am sorry. :P"
At least two of the teen's Facebook friends reported the message to police, who were already in the process of investigating ...
Common Financial Mistakes Made During Divorce
2013-01-29
Common financial mistakes made during divorce
It is no secret: divorce can be expensive. However, many people compound their financial woes by making grave mistakes during the divorce process that result in unfair settlements, gross hardship and a financial situation that could have been avoided at the outset by being more knowledgeable about the issues to look out for.
The following article provides a brief introduction about what financial mistakes to avoid during a divorce.
Accepting illiquid assets unknowingly
One common mistake is a failure to learn about ...
The Importance of Advance Health Care Directives
2013-01-29
The importance of advance health care directives
It's been said that the only certainties in life are death and taxes. So while no one wants to contemplate his or her own death, the only way to protect loved ones from having to make what might be unbearable difficult decisions in their time of grief is to plan for what you want to happen at the end of your life.
Advance health care directives speak for you if you are unable to speak for yourself. This document allows you to spell out your preferences for end-of-life care so when the time comes your family and health ...