(Press-News.org) Many vertebrate species would have to evolve about 10,000 times faster than they have in the past to adapt to the rapid climate change expected in the next 100 years, a study led by a University of Arizona ecologist has found.
Scientists analyzed how quickly species adapted to different climates in the past, using data from 540 living species from all major groups of terrestrial vertebrates, including amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. They then compared their rates of evolution to rates of climate change projected for the end of this century. This is the first study to compare past rates of adaption to future rates of climate change.
The results, published online in the journal Ecology Letters, show that terrestrial vertebrate species appear to evolve too slowly to be able to adapt to the dramatically warmer climate expected by 2100. The researchers suggested that many species may face extinction if they are unable to move or acclimate.
"Every species has a climatic niche which is the set of temperature and precipitation conditions in the area where it lives and where it can survive," explained John J. Wiens, a professor in UA's department of ecology and evolutionary biology in the College of Science. "For example, some species are found only in tropical areas, some only in cooler temperate areas, some live high in the mountains, and some live in the deserts."
Wiens conducted the research together with Ignacio Quintero, a postgraduate research assistant at Yale University.
"We found that on average, species usually adapt to different climatic conditions at a rate of only by about 1 degree Celsius per million years," Wiens explained. "But if global temperatures are going to rise by about 4 degrees over the next hundred years as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, that is where you get a huge difference in rates. What that suggests overall is that simply evolving to match these conditions may not be an option for many species."
For their analysis, Quintero and Wiens studied phylogenies – essentially evolutionary family trees showing how species are related to each other – based on genetic data. These trees reveal how long ago species split from each other. The sampling covered 17 families representing the major living groups of terrestrial vertebrates, including frogs, salamanders, lizards, snakes, crocodilians, birds and mammals.
They then combined these evolutionary trees with data on the climatic niche of each species to estimate how quickly climatic niches evolve among species, using climatic data such as annual mean temperature and annual precipitation as well as high and low extremes.
"Basically, we figured out how much species changed in their climatic niche on a given branch, and if we know how old a species is, we can estimate how quickly the climatic niche changes over time," Wiens explained. "For most sister species, we found that they evolved to live in habitats with an average temperature difference of only about 1 or 2 degrees Celsius over the course of one to a few million years."
"We then compared the rates of change over time in the past to projections for what climatic conditions are going to be like in 2100 and looked at how different these rates are. If the rates were similar, it would suggest there is a potential for species to evolve quickly enough to be able to survive, but in most cases, we found those rates to be different by about 10,000-fold or more," he said.
"According to our data, almost all groups have at least some species that are potentially endangered, particularly tropical species."
Species can respond to climate change by acclimating without evolutionary change or by moving over space to track their preferred climate. For example, some species might be able to move to higher latitudes or higher elevation to remain in suitable conditions as the climate warms. In addition, many species could lose many populations due to climate change but might still be able to persist as a species if some of their populations survive. Barring any these options, extinction is the most likely outcome.
He explained that moving to more suitable climatic conditions may not always be an option for many species.
"Some studies suggest many species won't be able to move fast enough," he said. "Also, moving may require unimpeded access to habitats that have not been heavily disturbed by humans. Or consider a species living on the top of a mountain. If it gets too warm or dry up there, they can't go anywhere."
In an earlier study, Wiens and co-authors asked what might actually cause species to go extinct. They showed that species extinctions and declines from climate change are more often due to changes in interactions with other species rather than inability to cope with changing conditions physiologically.
"What seemed to be a big driver in many species declines was reduced food availability," Wiens said. "For example, bighorn sheep: If it gets drier and drier, the grass gets sparse and they starve to death."
INFORMATION:
Evolution too slow to keep up with climate change, study says
A study led by a University of Arizona ecologist has found that many species evolve too slowly to adapt to the rapid climate change expected in the next 100 years
2013-07-10
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
The dark side of artificial sweeteners
2013-07-10
More and more Americans are consuming artificial sweeteners as an alternative to sugar, but whether this translates into better health has been heavily debated. An opinion article published by Cell Press on July 10th in the journal Trends in Endocrinology & Metabolism reviews surprising evidence on the negative impact of artificial sweeteners on health, raising red flags about all sweeteners—even those that don't have any calories.
"It is not uncommon for people to be given messages that artificially-sweetened products are healthy, will help them lose weight or will help ...
Obesity rises in nearly all counties but Americans becoming more physically active
2013-07-10
SEATTLE — More people are running, biking, and exercising in other ways in hundreds of US counties, according to new research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The rise in physical activity levels will have a positive health impact on Americans by reducing death and chronic disability from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. But the trend has had little impact so far on stopping the rising tide of obesity. As physical activity increased between 2001 and 2009, so did the percentage of the population considered ...
United States losing ground to other countries in health outcomes
2013-07-10
WASHINGTON, DC — In nearly every major cause of premature death – from ischemic heart disease to diabetes to interpersonal violence – the United States trails its economic peers, according to new research from a global collaborative of scientists led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
In a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association today – “The State of US Health, 1990-2010: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors” – researchers show the impact of premature deaths in children and young ...
The contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise will continue to increase
2013-07-10
New research has shown surface ice melt will be the dominant process controlling ice-loss from Greenland. As outlet glaciers retreat inland the other process, iceberg production, remains important but will not grow as rapidly.
The Greenland ice sheet is often considered an important potential contributor to future global sea-level rise over the next century or longer. In total, it contains an amount of ice that would lead to a rise of global sea level by more than seven metres, if completely melted.
Changes in its total mass are governed by two main processes - fluctuations ...
Report looks at successful government crowdsourcing efforts for earthquake monitoring
2013-07-10
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientific institutions are using social media and crowdsourcing to learn more about earthquakes, according to a new report. These techniques provide inexpensive and rapid data to augment and extend the capabilities provided by traditional monitoring techniques.
The new report, Transforming Earthquake Detection and Science Through Citizen Seismology, released today by the Commons Lab at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, outlines these groundbreaking citizen science projects.
The report describes ...
NTU invention transforms plain surfaces into low-cost touch screens
2013-07-10
Imagine turning a whiteboard, glass window or even a wooden table top into a responsive, touch sensitive surface.
A low cost system developed by Nanyang Technological University (NTU), based on the principles of vibration and imaging that is able to track the movements of multiple fingers and of objects, can do just that.
Retrofitting the system onto existing flat-panel TVs will transform it into new, touch sensitive display screens, at only a fraction of the cost of new touch-sensitive display screens, which can cost tens of thousands of dollars.
Once hooked up ...
Cloud brightening to cool seas can protect coral reefs
2013-07-10
The seeding of marine clouds to cool sea surface temperatures could protect threatened coral reefs from being bleached by warming oceans. Research, published in Atmospheric Science Letters, proposes that a targeted version of the geo-engineering technique could give coral a fifty year 'breathing space' to recover from acidification and warming.
"Coral bleaching over the last few decades has been caused by rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification," said Dr Alan Gadian, from Leeds University. "Our research focuses on how Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) could quickly ...
Cool it, quick: Rapid cooling leads to stronger alloys
2013-07-10
Oxford -- A team of researchers from the University of Rostock in Germany has developed a new way to rapidly produce high strength metallic alloys, at a lower cost using less energy than before. It's expected that this breakthrough will profoundly change how we produce components used in a diverse range of applications; including transport and medical devices.
The research, which appears in the latest issue of the open access journal Materials Today, reports on the first Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) system with an integrated gas quenching mechanism, capable of alternating ...
Test tube children develop mentally normal
2013-07-10
Whether a child is conceived naturally or in a Petri dish in an incubator has no bearing at all on the child's mental health. However, researchers have identified a small but increased risk of developing a mental disorder such as autism, ADHD or behavioural problems in children whose mothers only received medical treatment to stimulate ovulation and egg development before insemination.
This is the result of a new research project from Aarhus University and Aarhus University Hospital, which has compared the risk of mental illness in artificially fertilised and naturally ...
Oldest use of flowers in grave lining
2013-07-10
When did people first begin to express their feelings with flowers? It turns out that in prehistoric times, Mount Carmel residents in what today is northern Israel buried their dead on a literal bed of fragrant wild flowers, such as Judean sage, as well as blooming plants of the mint and figwort families. Assuming they had the same positive associations with flowers that we do today, these ancient humans must have sought to ensure for the deceased a pleasant passage from the world of the living.
The discovery is the oldest known use of flowers in grave lining. According ...
LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:
New College of AI, Cyber and Computing launched at UT San Antonio
Collaborative team earns five-year renewal grant from NINDS to continue stroke research
Vitamin K analogues may help transform the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases
Cyclic triaxial tests: Evaluation of liquefaction resistance in chemically treated soils
Uniting the light spectrum on a chip
Hundreds of new bacteria, and two potential antibiotics, found in soil
Smells deceive the brain – are interpreted as taste
New species survival commission fills critical gap in conservation
New conservation committee led by Applied Microbiology International calls on science community to get on board with microbial conservation
Scientists uncover key stabilizing role of small molecules
“Black Hole Stars” could solve JWST riddle of overly massive early galaxies
Mysterious ‘red dots’ in early universe may be ‘black hole star’ atmospheres
A gene mutation found in East Asian people increases liver disease risk by an ‘aldehyde storm’
Artificial intelligence‑assisted conductive hydrogel dressings for refractory wounds monitoring
Scalable fabrication of methylammonium‑free wide‑bandgap perovskite solar cells by blade coating in ambient air
Wearable devices could revolutionize pregnancy monitoring and detect abnormalities
Efficient cation recognition strategies for cationic compounds
US COVID-19 school closures were not cost-effective, but other non-pharmaceutical interventions were, new study finds
Human activities linked to declines of big seeds
North-south autism assessment divide leaves children waiting three years longer
Want to publish in Nature? Webinar with Prof. Willie Peijnenburg shares insider tips
Cataract surgery on both eyes can be carried out safely and effectively in one go
Personalized brain stimulation shows benefit for depression
AI uncovers hidden rules of some of nature’s toughest protein bonds
Innovative approach helps new mothers get hepatitis C treatment
Identifying the Interactions That Drive Cell Migration in Brain Cancer
ORNL receives 2025 SAMPE Organizational Excellence Award
University of Oklahoma researchers aim to reduce indigenous cancer disparities
Study reveals new evidence, cost savings for common treatments for opioid use disorder in mothers and infants
Research alert: Frequent cannabis users show no driving impairment after two-day break
[Press-News.org] Evolution too slow to keep up with climate change, study saysA study led by a University of Arizona ecologist has found that many species evolve too slowly to adapt to the rapid climate change expected in the next 100 years