Does the wisdom of crowds prevail when betting on football?
2010-11-16
(Press-News.org) Point spreads—the number of points by which a strong team can be expected to defeat a weaker team—are supposed to reflect the "wisdom of crowds." But a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research found that crowds don't have a clue.
"Point spread betting markets seem to offer an important example of crowd wisdom, because point spreads are very accurate and are widely believed to reflect the 'crowd's' prediction of upcoming sporting events," write authors Joseph P. Simmons (Yale University), Leif D. Nelson (University of California at Berkeley), Jeff Galak (Carnegie Mellon University), and Shane Frederick (Yale University). But previous research shows that bettors are biased in their predictions; their intuitions tend to favor "favorites" over "underdogs."
The authors conducted a season-long investigation of the betting habits of enthusiastic NFL football fans from diverse regions of the United States. Participants wagered more than $20,000 on football games against point spreads that were manipulated to favor the underdog.
The authors first tested a hypothesis that crowds will wisely choose underdogs against spreads that disadvantage favorites. The bettors failed this test, predicting vastly more favorites (89 percent) than underdogs. Next, they found that even when bettors were warned that the spreads had been increased they still predicted favorites only slightly less often (83 percent).
"In this context, the temptation to rely on one's intuition is so strong as to lead people to rely on what they intuitively feel to be true (this favorite will prevail against the spread) rather than on what they generally know to be true (the favorite will usually lose against the spread)" the authors write. And it seems people have trouble learning from their mistakes: the crowd's predictions worsened over time, rather than getting better.
Finally, the researchers hit upon a method of eliciting better choices. "Asking people to predict point differentials rather than make choices against point spreads decreased reliance on faulty intuitions and produced vastly different, and vastly wiser, predictions against the spread," the authors conclude.
INFORMATION:
Joseph P. Simmons, Leif D. Nelson, Jeff Galak, and Shane Frederick. "Intuitive Biases in Choice vs. Estimation: Implications for the Wisdom of Crowds." Journal of Consumer Research: June 2011. Further information: http://ejcr.org.
END
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
2010-11-16
It's just like a bad breakup: People get emotional when they end a relationship with a brand. A new study in the Journal of Consumer Research examines what happens when people turn their backs on the brands they once loved.
"Customers who were once enthusiastic about a brand may represent a headache for the associated firm beyond the lost revenue of foregone sales because they sometimes become committed to harming the firm," write authors Allison R. Johnson (University of Western Ontario), Maggie Matear (Queens University, Kingston, Ontario), and Matthew Thomson (University ...
2010-11-16
You aced that test; now it's time for a treat.
Sometimes pride in an achievement can lead people to indulge in unhealthy choices, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research.
"Across four studies in the food consumptions and spending domains, we show that pride is associated with two opposing forces; it promotes a sense of achievement, which increases indulgence, and it promotes self-awareness, which facilitates self control," write authors Keith Wilcox (Babson College), Thomas Kramer (University of South Carolina), and Sankar Sen (Baruch College).
The ...
2010-11-16
Consumers value goals they've chosen on their own more than those that are imposed on them, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research.
"When people believe they have autonomously chosen to pursue a goal themselves, they feel the goal is increasingly valuable as they put in more effort, because they experience their own effort as signaling how much they care about it," write authors Ying Zhang (University of Texas at Austin), Jing Xu, Zixi Jiang (both Peking University), and Szu-chi Huang (University of Texas at Austin).
It seems that when people ...
2010-11-16
CHICAGO --- Is cardiovascular health in middle age and beyond a gift from your genes or is it earned by a healthy lifestyle and within your control?
Two large studies from Northwestern Medicine confirm a healthy lifestyle has the biggest impact on cardiovascular health. One study shows the majority of people who adopted healthy lifestyle behaviors in young adulthood maintained a low cardiovascular risk profile in middle age. The five most important healthy behaviors are not smoking, low or no alcohol intake, weight control, physical activity and a healthy diet. The other ...
2010-11-16
Irvine, Calif., Nov. 15, 2010 — UC Irvine researchers have discovered that circadian rhythms – the internal body clock – regulate fat metabolism. This helps explain why people burn fat more efficiently at certain times of day and could lead to new pharmaceuticals for obesity, diabetes and energy-related illnesses.
The study was headed by Paolo Sassone-Corsi, Donald Bren Professor and chair of pharmacology. A leading expert on circadian rhythms, he discovered many of the key molecular switches governing these biological processes. He and his colleagues found that one of ...
2010-11-16
An autism study by Yale School of Medicine researchers using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has identified a pattern of brain activity that may characterize the genetic vulnerability to developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Published today in the early edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study could eventually lead to earlier and more accurate autism diagnosis.
ASD is defined by impaired social interaction and communication, and can disrupt the brain's ability to interpret the movements of other people, known as "biological ...
2010-11-16
CHICAGO - Plaque in a heart artery looks threatening, but cardiologists know that many of these buildups will not erupt, dislodge and block a vessel, causing a heart attack that can be fatal. Some will, however, and the challenge is to figure out atherosclerotic plaque that is dangerous and treat or remove it.
Now, researchers at Mayo Clinic have shown that iron, derived from blood, is much more prevalent in the kind of plaque that is unstable and is thus more likely to promote a myocardial infarction (MI) - heart attack - and possibly sudden death.
The team of researchers ...
2010-11-16
Cutting back on salt in teenagers' diets by as little as one-half teaspoon, or three grams, a day, could reduce the number of young adults with high blood pressure by 44 to 63 percent, according to new research presented Sunday, Nov. 14 at the American Heart Association's Scientific Sessions 2010 meeting in Chicago.
The findings indicate that the food industry and those who regulate it could substantially improve the nation's health through even small reductions in the amount of salt in processed foods, which account for the majority of salt consumed in this country.
"The ...
2010-11-16
HOUSTON - Red-blood-cell-boosting drugs used to treat anemia may undermine breast cancer treatment with Herceptin, a targeted therapy that blocks the cancer-promoting HER2 protein, researchers from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center report in the Nov. 16 edition of Cancer Cell.
"Our research indicates when the two drugs were used at the same time, Herceptin was less effective," said study senior author Zhen Fan, M.D., associate professor in MD Anderson's Department of Experimental Therapeutics.
Natural erythropoietin (EPO) controls the body's red blood ...
2010-11-16
CINCINNATI—University of Cincinnati (UC) researchers have found that applying a stem cell-infused patch together with overexpression of a specific cell instruction molecule promoted cell migration to damaged cardiac tissue following heart attack and resulted in improved function in animal models.
The researchers also found that function improved more so than when stem cells were directly injected in heart tissue—a therapy that is being studied elsewhere.
These findings are being presented for the first time at the American Heart Association's Scientific Meeting in Chicago ...
LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:
[Press-News.org] Does the wisdom of crowds prevail when betting on football?
