PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Forecast: the impacts of vaccines and variants on the U.S. COVID trajectory

2021-03-03
(Press-News.org) In a report summary released today Thomas McAndrew, a computational scientist and assistant professor at Lehigh University's College of Health includes probabilistic forecasts of the impact of vaccines and variants on the U.S. COVID trajectory over the next few weeks. The goal of the report, says McAndrew, is "to support public health officials, infectious disease modeling groups, and the general public"

Report highlights: A consensus of 91 forecasters predicts that the B.1.1.7. variant will be found in 42% of all genetic sequences with an S-gene mutation in the first two weeks of March and in 72% in all sequences between March 29 and April 4, 2021. The consensus among experts in the modeling of infectious disease and trained forecasters from Metaculus is that by Feb 28th, 55,420,000 people will have received at least one dose of a vaccine. Generalist forecasters from Good Judgment Open (GJO) - an online forecasting platform open to any interested member of the public - responded similarly with an implied median of 52,200,000 people receiving one or more vaccine doses. Preliminary data from the CDC shows 49,772,180 people have received an initial dose on Feb. 28th. Consensus forecasts from both Metaculus and Good Judgment Open predicted a decrease in the rate of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations for the last week of Feb (21st-27th). The team will share with members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, and members of MIDAS.

McAndrew's approach to forecasting is different from the traditional approach. Rather than build a computational model to predict cases, deaths, and hospitalizations due to COVID, he asks experts and trained forecasters to predict these targets and combines their predictions into a single consensus forecast.

In addition he and his team produce a metaforecast, which is a combination of an ensemble of computational models and their consensus forecast.

"The idea behind this approach is to combine computational models with human judgment to make more accurate predictions of the U.S. outbreak," says McAndrew.

INFORMATION:

Two Lehigh University undergraduates Damon Luk ('21), an electrical engineering major and computer science, Allison Codi ('22), an IDEAS (Integrated Degree in Engineering, Arts and Sciences) major with a concentrations in Computer Science and Health, Medicine, and Society, as well as Cognitive Psychology postdoctoral researcher David Braun join McAndrew as first authors on the report. Additional authors include Juan Cambeiro and Tamay Besiroglu of Metaculus and Eva Chen and Luis Enrique Urtubey de C´esaris of Good Judgement Inc.



ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

First detailed insight into newborn babies' lungs at birth

First detailed insight into newborn babies lungs at birth
2021-03-03
Researchers have captured the first detailed images of newborn babies' lungs as they take their first breaths. The research, led by the Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI) and published the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, provides a breakthrough in understanding the events around a baby's first breath, why healthy babies cry at birth and provides clues to improving preterm babies' survival chances and long term health outcomes. About 10 per cent of newborns, and almost all preterm infants, need resuscitation because their lungs do not properly fill with air at birth (a process called lung aeration). Despite ...

UBC study finds high life satisfaction linked to better overall health

2021-03-03
New research from UBC finds that higher life satisfaction is associated with better physical, psychological and behavioural health. The research, published recently in The Milbank Quarterly, found that higher life satisfaction is linked to 21 positive health and well-being outcomes including: a 26 per cent reduced risk of mortality a 46 per cent reduced risk of depression a 25 per cent reduced risk of physical functioning limitations a 12 per cent reduced risk of chronic pain a 14 per cent reduced risk of sleep problem onset an eight per cent higher likelihood of frequent physical activity better psychological well-being on ...

Researchers introduce a new generation of tiny, agile drones

Researchers introduce a new generation of tiny, agile drones
2021-03-03
If you've ever swatted a mosquito away from your face, only to have it return again (and again and again), you know that insects can be remarkably acrobatic and resilient in flight. Those traits help them navigate the aerial world, with all of its wind gusts, obstacles, and general uncertainty. Such traits are also hard to build into flying robots, but MIT Assistant Professor Kevin Yufeng Chen has built a system that approaches insects' agility. Chen, a member of the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and the Research Laboratory of Electronics, has developed insect-sized drones with unprecedented dexterity and resilience. The aerial robots ...

Green tea supplements modulate facial development of children with Down syndrome

2021-03-03
Green tea supplements modulate facial development of children with Down syndrome A new study led by Belgian and Spanish researchers published in Scientific Reports adds evidence about the potential benefits of green tea extracts in Down syndrome. The researchers observed that the intake of green tea extracts can reduce facial dysmorphology in children with Down syndrome when taken during the first three years of life. Additional experimental research in mice confirmed the positive effects at low doses. However, they also found that high doses of the extract can disrupt facial and bone development. More research is needed to fully understand the effects of green tea extracts and therefore they should ...

Helping soft robots turn rigid on demand

Helping soft robots turn rigid on demand
2021-03-03
Imagine a robot. Perhaps you've just conjured a machine with a rigid, metallic exterior. While robots armored with hard exoskeletons are common, they're not always ideal. Soft-bodied robots, inspired by fish or other squishy creatures, might better adapt to changing environments and work more safely with people. Roboticists generally have to decide whether to design a hard- or soft-bodied robot for a particular task. But that tradeoff may no longer be necessary. Working with computer simulations, MIT researchers have developed a concept for a soft-bodied robot that can turn rigid on demand. The approach could enable a new generation of robots that combine the strength and precision of rigid robots with the fluidity and safety of ...

Climate models may significantly overestimate savings from improved energy efficiency

Climate models may significantly overestimate savings from improved energy efficiency
2021-03-03
The models used to produce global climate scenarios may overestimate the energy and emission savings from improved energy efficiency, warns new research led by academics at the University of Sussex Business School and the University of Leeds. In a review of 33 studies, the researchers find that economy wide rebound effects may erode around half of the energy and emission savings from improved energy efficiency. These rebound effects result from individuals and businesses responding to the benefits of improved energy efficiency - such as cheaper heating, lighting and travel. These responses improve quality-of-life, raise productivity and boost industrial competitiveness, ...

How to choose low glycaemic index (GI) foods? A GI "glossary" of Asian foods released

How to choose low glycaemic index (GI) foods? A GI glossary of Asian foods released
2021-03-03
Professor Christiani Jeyakumar Henry, Senior Advisor of Singapore Institute of Food and Biotechnology Innovation (SIFBI), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) and his team have developed a Glycaemic Index (GI) glossary of non-Western foods. The research paper (attached PDF) was published in Nutrition & Diabetes on 6 Jan 2021: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41387-020-00145-w. Observational studies have shown that the consumption of low glycaemic index (GI) foods is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), significantly less insulin resistance and a lower prevalence of the metabolic syndrome. ...

Researchers investigate imaginary part in quantum resource theory

Researchers investigate imaginary part in quantum resource theory
2021-03-03
Recently, research team led by academician GUO Guangcan from CAS Key Laboratory of Quantum Information of the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) of CAS, has made an important progress in quantum information theory. Prof. LI Chuanfeng and Prof. XIANG Guoyong from the team, cooperated with Dr. Strelstov from University of Warsaw, investigated the imaginary part of quantum theory as a resource, and several important results have been obtained. Relevant results are now jointly published as Editors' Suggestion in Physical Review Letters and Physical Review A. Complex number is a mathematical ...

Filming a 3D video of a virus with instantaneous light and AI

Filming a 3D video of a virus with instantaneous light and AI
2021-03-03
It is millions of trillions of times brighter than the sunlight and a whopping 1,000 trillionth of a second, appropriately called the instantaneous light. It is the X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) light that opens a new scientific paradigm. Combining it with AI, an international research team has succeeded in filming and restoring the 3D structure of nanoparticles that share structural similarities with viruses. With the fear of a new pandemic growing around the world due to COVID-19, this discovery is attracting the attention among academic circles for imaging the structure of the virus with both high accuracy and speed. An international team of researchers from POSTECH, National University of ...

Periodontitis: Researchers search for a new active substance

2021-03-03
Targeted, efficient and with few side effects: A new method for combating periodontitis could render the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics superfluous. It was developed and tested for the first time by a team from Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), the Fraunhofer Institute for Cell Therapy and Immunology IZI and Periotrap Pharmaceuticals GmbH. The aim is to neutralise only bacteria that cause periodontitis while sparing harmless bacteria. The study appeared in the Journal of Biological Chemistry. Periodontitis is a common bacterial inflammation of the gums. According to the World Health Organization WHO Oral ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Study tracks chromium chemistry in irradiated molten salts

Scientists: the beautiful game is a silver bullet for global health

Being physically active, even just a couple of days a week, may be key to better health

High-fat diet promote breast cancer metastasis in animal models

A router for photons

Nurses and AI collaborate to save lives, reduce hospital stays

Multi-resistance in bacteria predicted by AI model

Tinker Tots: A citizen science project to explore ethical dilemmas in embryo selection

Sensing sickness

Cost to build multifamily housing in California more than twice as high as in Texas

Program takes aim at drinking, unsafe sex, and sexual assault on college campuses

Inability to pay for healthcare reaches record high in U.S.

Science ‘storytelling’ urgently needed amid climate and biodiversity crisis

KAIST Develops Retinal Therapy to Restore Lost Vision​

Adipocyte-hepatocyte signaling mechanism uncovered in endoplasmic reticulum stress response

Mammals were adapting from life in the trees to living on the ground before dinosaur-killing asteroid

Low LDL cholesterol levels linked to reduced risk of dementia

Thickening of the eye’s retina associated with greater risk and severity of postoperative delirium in older patients

Almost one in ten people surveyed report having been harmed by the NHS in the last three years

Enhancing light control with complex frequency excitations

New research finds novel drug target for acute myeloid leukemia, bringing hope for cancer patients

New insight into factors associated with a common disease among dogs and humans

Illuminating single atoms for sustainable propylene production

New study finds Rocky Mountain snow contamination

Study examines lactation in critically ill patients

UVA Engineering Dean Jennifer West earns AIMBE’s 2025 Pierre Galletti Award

Doubling down on metasurfaces

New Cedars-Sinai study shows how specialized diet can improve gut disorders

Making moves and hitting the breaks: Owl journeys surprise researchers in western Montana

PKU Scientists simulate the origin and evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation

[Press-News.org] Forecast: the impacts of vaccines and variants on the U.S. COVID trajectory