(Press-News.org) Rapid filling of a giant dam at the headwaters of the Nile River -- the world's biggest waterway that supports millions of people -- could reduce water supplies to downstream Egypt by more than one-third, new USC research shows.
A water deficit of that magnitude, if unmitigated, could potentially destabilize a politically volatile part of the world by reducing arable land in Egypt by up to 72%. The study projects that economic losses to agriculture would reach $51 billion. The gross domestic product loss would push unemployment to 24%, displacing lots of people and disrupting economies.
"Our study forecasts dire water supply impacts downstream, causing what would be the largest water stress dispute in modern human history," said Essam Heggy, a research scientist at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering and lead author of the study. "Averaging losses from all of the announced filling scenarios, these water shortages could nearly double Egypt's present water supply deficit and will have dire consequences for Egypt's economy, employment, migration and food supply."
The study was published July 1 in Environmental Research Letters.
Despite the risks, the study offers policy solutions for sustainability that could potentially minimize the downstream impacts and reduce tensions in the Nile River region. For example, the impacts could be partially offset by adjusting operations at the Aswan Dam downstream in southern Egypt, pumping more groundwater, cultivating different kinds of crops and improving irrigation systems.
So far, despite international negotiations, there's been little progress in the decade-long dispute.
The crux of the controversy is Ethiopia's $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam nearing completion at the Nile headwaters. Now in the second phase of filling, it will be the largest hydropower project in Africa and would create a reservoir containing 74 billion cubic meters of water -- more than twice the operational capacity of Lake Mead on the Colorado River.
It's so vast that it will take years to fill, and depending on how long it takes, the water diversions could have devastating impacts downstream. Egypt and Sudan have water rights to the Nile, while Ethiopia was not allocated a quantifiable share. But as water and energy demand grows in the Nile River basin, Ethiopia is asserting its needs for hydropower and irrigated agriculture to promote development.
Some 280 million people in 11 countries in the basin depend on the waterway -- a primary source of irrigation for more than 5,000 years. Egypt relies on the Nile for more than 90% of its water. The region's population could increase by 25% in 30 years, increasing demand at a time when Egypt would expect less water from the Nile. Water rights along the Nile have been in dispute since 1959; today, the conflict threatens to escalate into a war.
The USC study examined various dam filling scenarios and water shortage impacts for Egypt. Based on the short-term filling strategies of 3 to 5 years, presently favored by Ethiopia, the water deficit downstream in Egypt could almost double; 83% of the additional water loss would be due to dam restraining flow and evaporation and 17% lost due to seepage into rocks and sand.
The study helps fill a gap in the dispute by reducing ambiguities about how dam filling scenarios would impact the water budget deficit in Egypt, as well as offering a feasibility index to the different potential solutions. As global warming and aridification accelerates, it underscores the need for more water research in arid lands, which is the core mission of the Arid Climates and Water Research Center at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering.
"There is a real need for sound science to resolve the ambiguity surrounding this controversy," Heggy said. "Our analysis doesn't point fingers, yet it shows a dire water situation that will result downstream, which is forecasted as the largest water stress dispute in human history. It can be avoided if proper support is made to the water, energy and environment research in the Nile basin."
The study comes amidst a 10-year dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over water supply on the Nile River. The parties seek an international solution, yet talks led by the U.S. State Department -- and joined by the European Union and the United Nations -- have resulted in little agreement after four years.
Meanwhile, tensions run high as negotiators try to avert armed conflict. Egypt has vowed not to allow the dam to impede its water supply, and it held joint military maneuvers with Sudan in May. Sudan has since petitioned the United Nations Security Council to hold an emergency session as soon as possible.
The dispute is emblematic of wider disputes over water scarcity as climate change affects developing countries experiencing rapid growth. Disputes along the Mekong, Zambezi and Euphrates-Tigris rivers, among others, show the potential for political instability and conflict.
Heggy said it's possible a win-win solution may yet be found for the Nile River, based on policy options the study identifies. Progress has been impeded, though, due to a lack of credible information about downstream water supply and economic impacts. Getting an agreement will likely require better data and forecasts on impacts to human society as well as ecological effects along the Nile River.
INFORMATION:
In addition to Heggy, co-authors of the study are Abotalib Z. Abotalib at USC and Zane Sharkawy at Cornell University.
The research was funded by the James H. Zumberge Research and Innovation Fund allocation to the Arid Climates and Water Research Center at the Viterbi School of Engineering.
The findings of the study, funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and led by Professor Kristian Pollock from the University of Nottingham, are published in Palliative Medicine.
When somebody is seriously ill and dying at home, managing their medications can be a difficult and complex task. This is made more difficult given that the care often needs to be given when patients and their families are tired and emotional. Family members are often assumed to be willing and able to support patients with their medication. However, little is known about what ...
Athletes may have more than twice the risk of irregular heart rhythm
Younger athletes are at greater risk of atrial fibrillation than older athletes, say researchers
Athletes appear to be almost two and half times more likely than non-athletes to experience irregular heart rhythms (atrial fibrillation), suggests new research published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine.
In addition, those athletes involved in mixed sports such as football, rugby or netball appear to have the highest risk when compared with athletes taking part in endurance sports such as Nordic skiing, orienteering or rowing.
Previous ...
The burden of hospital admission rates due to heart attacks (myocardial infarctions) in England rose between 2012 and 2016, despite decades of falling rates, suggests new research published in the Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health.
Researchers also found that after 2010-2011, rates increased in most age groups and young women aged 35 to 49 and even younger men aged 15 to 34 were the groups that showed the sharpest increases in hospitalisation rates for heart attacks in the last five years of the study.
Death rates from coronary heart disease and heart attacks have been declining in England and other countries since the 1980s. Despite this, coronary heart disease is still a large cause of ...
A greater proportion of men than women exhibit bullying behaviours during medical training and academic practice, and only a minority of victims report their experiences, suggests new research published in the online journal BMJ Open.
Previous studies have reported that bullying is common in medicine with likely impacts on mental health, professional interactions, and career advancement. Surveys from the UK's NHS have reported 55% of staff experienced bullying and around a third were doctors in training. The prevalence of academic bullying within medical ...
Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is a medically safe mental health intervention, according to a new study led by CAMH researcher Dr. Tyler Kaster as part of his doctoral studies at ICES and the University of Toronto. The study was published today in the journal The Lancet Psychiatry, and is among the largest and most comprehensive to compare the safety of ECT with standard treatment amongst individuals with depression.
Multiple studies over a period of decades have confirmed the effectiveness of ECT as a mental health intervention for people with treatment-resistant depression. Up to 80 per cent of people with severe depression who receive ECT achieve remission. However, despite this success rate, only one per cent of people with severe depression ever ...
A single tree along a city street or in a backyard can provide measurable cooling benefits, according to a new study from American University. The research shows that "distributed" trees, those that are stand-alone and scattered throughout urban neighborhoods, can help to reduce evening heat. The research suggests that planting individual trees can be a strategy to mitigate urban heat, particularly in areas where land for parks can be scarce.
"There are plenty of good reasons to plant trees, but our study shows we shouldn't underestimate the role that individual trees can play in mitigating heat in urban areas," said Michael ...
Highlights
Patients with kidney failure did not report better experience with care from more frequent face-to-face visits with kidney specialists at dialysis facilities.
In fact, more frequent visits were linked with slightly lower patient-reported experiences with kidney-related care.
Washington, DC (July 12, 2021) -- In a recent analysis, more frequent kidney specialists' visits to clinics where patients with kidney failure undergo outpatient hemodialysis were not associated with more favorable patient-reported experiences with care. In fact, more frequent visits were associated with slightly lower patient-reported experiences. The findings will appear in an upcoming ...
Scientists have discovered a novel way to classify magnetized plasmas that could possibly lead to advances in harvesting on Earth the fusion energy that powers the sun and stars. The discovery by theorists at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) found that a magnetized plasma has 10 unique phases and the transitions between them might hold rich implications for practical development.
The spatial boundaries, or transitions, between different phases will support localized wave excitations, the researchers found. "These findings could lead to possible applications of these exotic excitations ...
Emotions towards and cultural importance of large carnivores are better predictors of the acceptance of management strategies by local communities than the extent of livestock depredation. This is the result of a new interdisciplinary investigation led by scientists from the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW). They conducted 100 questionnaires with Maasai pastoralists in Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania, focusing on three large carnivore species (spotted hyenas, lions and leopards) and three management strategies (no action, relocation and lethal control). An emphasis on socio-cultural variables is key to ...
One of the most significant challenges in the global R&D effort towards better energy technologies -- efficient and accurate material simulation -- may be one step closer to being solved, based on new techniques released by UK-based quantum software startup Phasecraft.
The new peer-reviewed study in the Physical Review B journal from the American Physical Society sets out a novel technique for modelling fermionic particles -- like electrons -- which significantly reduces the quantum hardware resources needed to perform simulations.
Phasecraft's Joel Klassen, who co-led the study, explained, "One of the most exciting potential applications for quantum computing ...
