(Press-News.org) Climate models used by the UN’s IPCC and others to project climate change are not accurately reflecting what the Arctic’s future will be. Researchers at the University of Gothenburg argue that the rate of warming will be much faster than projected.
Due to the Arctic´s sea ice cover and its harsh climate, relatively few observations are made in that part of world. This means that the climate models used for projecting the future of the Arctic have not been calibrated to the same extent there as in other parts of the world.
Two recent scientific studies involving researchers from the University of Gothenburg compared the results of the climate models with actual observations. They concluded that the warming of the Arctic Ocean will proceed at a much faster rate than projected by the climate models.
Climate models underestimate the consequences
“These climate models underestimate the consequences of climate change. In reality, the relatively warm waters in the Arctic regions are even warmer, and closer to the sea ice. Consequently, we believe that the Arctic sea ice will melt away faster than projected,” explains Céline Heuzé, climatologist at the University of Gothenburg and lead author of one of the studies.
Warm water flows into the Arctic Ocean via Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard. However, the volume of water in these ocean currents and its temperature in the climate models are too low, which is one of the reasons why the climate models’ projections will not be accurate. Even the stratification of the Arctic Ocean is incorrect. The researchers argue that since roughly half of the models project an increase and the other half a decrease in stratification, the consequences of global warming cannot be estimated accurately.
Acquiring hard data in the Arctic must be prioritised
“This is a serious situation. If governments and organisations all over the world are going to rely on these climate models, they must be improved. Which is why research and data acquisition in the Arctic ocean must be prioritised. At present, we cannot provide a useful prediction of how quickly the Arctic sea ice is melting,” Céline Heuzé explains.
The Arctic is an important region for projecting what the future intensity of global warming will be. Its sea ice contributes an albedo effect – a white surface that reflects sunlight away from the planet. If the ice were to disappear, more solar radiation would reach the Earth.
“We need a climate model that is tailored to the Arctic. In general, you can’t use the same model for the entire planet, as conditions vary considerably. A better idea would be to create a specific model for the Arctic that correctly factors in the processes occurring in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding land areas,” Céline Heuzé explains.
END
Arctic climate modelling too conservative
2023-03-13
[Attachments] See images for this press release:
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
New drug to lower brain pressure could treat blinding IIH headaches, trial finds
2023-03-13
Patients with ‘blinding’ headaches known as Idiopathic Intercranial Hypertension (IIH) could be treated with an injectable peptide used for type 2 diabetes, a new trial has found.
The study, published in the journal Brain, today reports on a phase two trial of a drug called exenatide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, as a potential treatment for IIH.
The IIH Pressure Trial led by a team of neurologists from the University of Birmingham and University Hospitals Birmingham found that for the seven ...
Links between maternal autonomy support and controlling parenting and adolescents’ depressive symptoms
2023-03-13
The relationship between adolescents and their parents has always been an intriguing issue in psychological research. Several studies underscore the significance of parenting behavior in the development of young people. Parental autonomy support, in particular, has been considered essential for adolescents’ growth and healthy functioning. Parental autonomy support and controlling parenting are the two most important facets of parenting. The former refers to parents supporting the independence of their children, including listening carefully, providing choices, perspective-taking, and offering valid reasoning for particular behaviors. On the contrary, controlling parenting refers to parental ...
Organosulfur content of vegetables quantified
2023-03-13
Osaka, Japan – The health-promoting effects of sulfur-rich vegetables such as onions and garlic have been known for a long time. How food containing sulfur compounds promotes health has not been easy to explore, as the levels—and types—of reactive polysulfides found in different vegetables had not been accurately measured.
A research team, led by Assistant Professor Shingo Kasamatsu from the Osaka Metropolitan University Graduate School of Science, has established a method for selective and sensitive detection of reactive ...
Scientists to examine whether SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy affects a child’s risk for neurodevelopmental disorders
2023-03-13
BALTIMORE, Md. (March 13, 2023) – Scientists led by the Lieber Institute for Brain Development are studying how a mother’s SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy affects the biology of the placenta and the corresponding trajectory of the child’s brain development, including the risk for neurodevelopmental disorders such as schizophrenia and autism. The work is made possible by a $3 million, five-year grant from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development, part ...
How new multi-sport facilities can be used after major events
2023-03-13
Communities that are constructing new multi-sport facilities for major events could run the risk of ending up with expensive under-used complexes, but a new study suggests there are several factors that can keep them productive in the long run.
Researchers found that factors such as the location and design of the facility, the formal agreements between operating groups and the breadth of sport and recreation programming offered at the facility all contributed to promoting a legacy of participation post-event.
“Major sporting ...
New technique reduces postoperative complications in prostate cancer surgery
2023-03-12
Surgeons in Germany have shown a small technical change to keyhole surgery for prostate cancer can more than halve one of the most common post-operative complications – where lymphatic fluid collects in the pelvis.
The technique involves creating a small flap in the peritoneum – the lining of the abdomen – and attaching this flap down into the pelvis. This creates a route for lymphatic fluid to escape from the pelvis into the abdomen where it can be more easily absorbed.
The findings ...
UK study finds vasectomies are even safer than reported
2023-03-12
Vasectomies are much less likely to cause complications than expected, according to a new UK study reviewing the outcomes from over 90,000 vasectomies performed over 15 years.
The study, led by researchers from Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, is being presented today at the European Association of Urology (EAU) Congress in Milan.
It shows that existing leaflets explaining the potential complications to patients are based on outdated figures.
Around 11,000 vasectomy operations are performed every year ...
Difference between “growers” and “showers” revealed
2023-03-12
A scientific definition to determine whether a man’s erection can be deemed a "grower " or a "shower" has been produced by researchers.
The findings are presented today at the European Association of Urology (EAU) Congress in Milan.
Urologists based at three hospitals and a clinic in Madrid conducted ultrasound scans on 225 men in both flaccid and then erect states.
The researchers, led by Dr Manuel Alonso-Isa, a urologist at the University Hospital HM Puerta del Sur in Madrid, Spain, had hoped to find factors among the men that would predict if they fell into one of these ...
Delaying treatment for localised prostate cancer does not increase mortality risk, trial shows
2023-03-12
Active monitoring of prostate cancer has the same high survival rates after 15 years as radiotherapy or surgery, reports the largest study of its kind today.
The latest findings from the ProtecT trial, led by the Universities of Oxford and Bristol, are presented today at the European Association of Urology (EAU) Congress in Milan and published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The trial was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).
Although men on active monitoring – which involves regular tests to check on the cancer – were more likely to see it progress ...
Clinical trial shows wrist device significantly reduces tics in Tourette syndrome
2023-03-12
The results of the clinical trial of a new wrist device designed to help control the symptoms of Tourette syndrome have shown it significantly reduces the severity and frequency of tics.
The prototype wrist device, which was recently tried out by Lewis Capaldi, delivers electrical pulses to reduce the amount and severity of tics experienced by individuals with Tourette’s and was trialed by 121 people across the UK. The results have been announced in MedRxive.
The device has been developed by scientists at the University of Nottingham and spin-out company Neurotherapuetics Ltd who have recently secured £1m in additional funding to ...