PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Does endogenous technological change matter in model-based climate change narratives?

2024-06-14
(Press-News.org)

Curbing the confirmed human influence on the climate system and mitigating climate change require profound transformation of global energy system. In this context, modeling technical progress and innovation within Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is crucial for providing insights about the consequences of long-term energy system transformation, and capturing the development of several interacting systems and technical evolution process.

 

A review of Endogenous Technological Change (ETC) written by Hongbo Duan and Yixin Sun has been published recently, outlining IAM modeling tricks in ETC frameworks. They systematically demonstrates current techniques and theoretical foundations for handling endogenous technical change, using the E3METL model as an example.

 

The team published their review in Energy and Climate Management on June 12, 2024.

 

“In this review, we offer a comprehensive overview of the endeavors undertaken by our research team to integrate endogenous technical progress mechanisms into a global multi-regional integrated assessment model. Through the incorporation of Learning-by-Doing and Learning-by-Research learning curves, alongside the Logistic technical mechanism, our model demonstrates the implications of energy technology advancement, economic impacts, and shifts in abatement costs. These insights underscore the pivotal role of ETC in economic and energy system dynamics”, explained Hongbo Duan, senior author of the paper and professor at the School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. Dr. Duan is also the esteemed recipient of the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars.

 

In the early stages, exogenous technological change was predominant in integrated assessment modeling. Specifically, in top-down models, the constant elasticity substitution (CES) function has been widely used to model energy technological substitution, leaving energy technology advancement externalized by autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI); while in bottom-up models, they were always modeled as a range of specific energy technologies with competitive relationships, treating technological progress as an exogenous process of cost and efficiency improvements. Due to gradually deepening cognition of both energy system and social transition, modelers have recognized that IAMs with induced endogenous technical change produce more reasonable and explanatory outcomes in pathways assessment of climate policy.

 

The authors outline the progress made in ETC modeling to introduce a variety of ways from both the supply and demand sides for technological change into IAMs. “For modeling technical change in demand sectors, incorporating R&D investments into the economic structure, known as induced innovation, is perhaps the most common technique in top-down macroeconomic IAMs”, stated Yixin Sun, the co-author of the study. “However, it lacks the description of knowledge externalities and the micro foundations of modern endogenous growth theory, making it unclear who is responsible for R&D activities”, Yixin added.

 

From the supply side, the concept of endogenous technological change can be well represented by learning curves, which illustrates the internal factors driving technical progress. The learning process specifically manifests as the Learning-by-Doing (LBD) effect, where production costs decrease exponentially as cumulative production increases, and the Learning-by-Searching (LBS) effect, where production costs decrease exponentially as knowledge capital increases. Two-factor learning curves have been gradually applied in many researches with increasing consideration of endogenous technical progress in energy system models. For instance, E3METL made a preliminary attempt to incorporate the revised logistic curve to capture the S-shaped technology competition. It was discovered that describing the penetration of non-carbon technologies and determining the optimal carbon tax increasingly rely on the learning rate.

 

One of the challenges of endogenous technological development is incorporating more dependence among multi-sectors and across time, making the model more realistic. In recent years, several new strands of theories and methods have emerged that aim to contribute valuable insights towards technical transitions to climate policy assessment. This includes studies on Directed Technical Change (DTC) theory originated from endogenous economic growth, socio-technical approaches focusing on the evolution of technology diffusion, technology choice models based on Discrete Choice Theory (DCM), as well as agent-based models characterized by heterogeneity and bounded rationality. “In future research, exploring the regional impacts of technology-driven non-energy systems will also be regarded an important direction”, stated Yixin Sun.

 

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72325008, 72274188 and 72022019), Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021164), and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF2022).

 

About Energy and Climate Management

Managing the changing climate and energy transition are two closely related scientific and policy challenges of our society. Energy and Climate Management is an open access, peer-reviewed scholarly, policy-oriented academic journal dedicated to publishing interdisciplinary scientific papers on cutting-edge research on contemporary energy and climate management analysis. The Journal is exclusively available via SciOpen and aims to incentivize a meaningful dialogue between academics, think tanks, and public authorities worldwide. Contributions are welcomed covering areas related to energy and climate management, especially policy, economics, governance, and finance. Online submission portal available at https://mc03.manuscriptcentral.com/jecm.

About SciOpen 

SciOpen is a professional open access resource for discovery of scientific and technical content published by the Tsinghua University Press and its publishing partners, providing the scholarly publishing community with innovative technology and market-leading capabilities. SciOpen provides end-to-end services across manuscript submission, peer review, content hosting, analytics, and identity management and expert advice to ensure each journal’s development by offering a range of options across all functions as Journal Layout, Production Services, Editorial Services, Marketing and Promotions, Online Functionality, etc. By digitalizing the publishing process, SciOpen widens the reach, deepens the impact, and accelerates the exchange of ideas.

END



ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Bringing data to life: New interactive dashboard provides analysis and visualization of sickle cell disease prevalence and burden in an entire state

2024-06-14
INDIANAPOLIS – The Indiana Sickle Cell Dashboard, launching this month on the Regenstrief Institute website, presents a dynamic, panoptic picture of sickle cell disease throughout an entire state. The new dashboard uses de-identified data from throughout the state of Indiana, obtained from multiple clinical and administrative sources, to present easy-to-understand, interactive visualizations of the disease’s prevalence and burden. The pioneering dashboard, created, developed and maintained by the Regenstrief Institute, is one of the first ...

Synthetic data holds the key to determining best statewide transit investments, new NYU Tandon School of Engineering study finds

2024-06-14
Synthetically generated population data can reveal the equity impacts of distributing transportation resources and funding across diverse regions, according to new research from NYU's Tandon School of Engineering that uses New York State as a case study. Relying on an artificial dataset representing 19.5 million New York residents and over 120,000 modeled origin-destination trips, researchers from NYU Tandon's C2SMARTER, a Tier 1 U.S U.S. Department of Transportation-funded University Transportation Center, determined how best to invest in transportation services when equitable benefits are an objective. They ...

New research finds biases encoded in language across cultures and history

2024-06-14
In a new study, published in Social Psychological and Personality Science, researchers share evidence that people’s attitudes are deeply woven into language and culture across the globe and centuries. The researchers looked at connections between people’s attitudes and language from 55 different topics like rich vs. poor, dogs vs. cats, or love vs. money. They used four text sources: Current English writing and text, English books going back 200 years, and texts in 53 languages other than English. As a measure of people’s attitudes, they used data from over 100,000 Americans; first, direct self-reports, and second, an indirect ...

Mothers lower risk of caesarean births after COVID vaccination

2024-06-14
Pregnant women who have been vaccinated against Covid-19 are less likely to have a caesarean section or experience hypertension, according to a study.          A meta-analysis funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre of 67 studies which included more than 1.8m women found that being fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had a protective benefit against infection and hospitalisation, while vaccination with at least one dose lowered the risk of adverse pregnancy-related and neonatal outcomes.   Drawing on ...

Ultrasensitive liquid biopsy tech spots cancer earlier than standard methods

2024-06-14
An artificial intelligence-powered method for detecting tumor DNA in blood has shown unprecedented sensitivity in predicting cancer recurrence, in a study led by researchers at Weill Cornell Medicine, NewYork-Presbyterian, the New York Genome Center (NYGC) and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK). The new technology has the potential to improve cancer care with the very early detection of recurrence and close monitoring of tumor response during therapy. In the study, which appears June 14 in Nature Medicine, the researchers showed that they could train a machine learning model, a type ...

New study emphasizes tradeoffs between arresting groundwater depletion and food security

2024-06-14
Washington DC, June 14, 2024: A study by authors from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), published today in Nature Sustainability, reaffirms the world’s growing dependence on depleting groundwater systems. Although efforts to slow down groundwater depletion need to be urgently accelerated, this study indicates that such efforts – in the absence of other accompanying measures – would likely lead to significant food security impacts. The study finds that ending groundwater depletion would lead to sharp declines in food production, ...

Germline CDH1 variants and lifetime cancer risk

2024-06-14
About The Study: Among families from North America with germline CDH1 P/LP variants, the cumulative risk of gastric cancer was 7% to 10%, which was lower than previously described, and the cumulative risk of breast cancer among female carriers was 37%, which was similar to prior estimates. These findings inform current management of individuals with germline CDH1 variants. Quote from corresponding author Jeremy L. Davis, M.D.: “We showed that the lifetime risk of cancer, specifically stomach cancer, in people born with CDH1 gene mutations is lower ...

Dapagliflozin for critically ill patients with acute organ dysfunction

2024-06-14
About The Study: The addition of dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, to standard care for critically ill patients and acute organ dysfunction did not improve clinical outcomes; however, confidence intervals were wide and could not exclude relevant benefits or harms for dapagliflozin.  Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Fernando G. Zampieri, M.D., Ph.D., email fernando.zampieri@einstein.br. To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/ (doi:10.1001/jama.2024.10510) Editor’s ...

RECLARIT: Self-management in practice

2024-06-14
Disease activity, structural damage, and progression all impact the lives of people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and can cause psychosocial distress. While inhibition of inflammation and structural changes have improved significantly following advances in pharmacological treatment in recent dates, the observed impact of these disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD) on key psychosocial outcomes is limited.3 An important feature within the EULAR recommendations on self-management in people with inflammatory arthritis is that digital healthcare is tagged as being essential in supporting and optimising self-management2. . Thus healthcare professionals need to be aware ...

Survey now open: EULAR invites patients across Europe to participate in groundbreaking study on rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases

2024-06-14
People living with RMDs can now fill out the survey online, sharing their experiences to help build a comprehensive understanding of their disease's impact. The data collected will be invaluable for researchers, healthcare professionals, and patients themselves, providing insights into the burden of RMDs and identifying areas for improvement in care.   EULAR is committed to inclusivity and accessibility; the survey will soon be available in multiple European languages in addition to English. This ensures that a diverse range of patients can contribute their perspectives, enhancing the richness and applicability of the data.   Participants will answer a baseline survey ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Less intensive works best for agricultural soil

Arctic rivers project receives “national champion” designation from frontiers foundation

Computational biology paves the way for new ALS tests

Study offers new hope for babies born with opioid withdrawal syndrome

UT, Volkswagen Group of America celebrate research partnership

New Medicare program could dramatically improve affordability for cancer drugs – if patients enroll

Are ‘zombie’ skin cells harmful or helpful? The answer may be in their shapes

University of Cincinnati Cancer Center presents research at AACR 2025

Head and neck, breast, lung and survivorship studies headline Dana-Farber research at AACR Annual Meeting 2025

AACR: Researchers share promising results from MD Anderson clinical trials

New research explains why our waistlines expand in middle age

Advancements in muon detection: Taishan Antineutrino Observatory's innovative top veto tracker

Chips off the old block

Microvascular decompression combined with nerve combing for atypical trigeminal neuralgia

Cutting the complexity from digital carpentry

Lung immune cell type “quietly” controls inflammation in COVID-19

Fiscal impact of expanded Medicare coverage for GLP-1 receptor agonists to treat obesity

State and sociodemographic trends in US cigarette smoking with future projections

Young adults drive historic decline in smoking

NFCR congratulates Dr. Robert C. Bast, Jr. on receiving the AACR-Daniel D. Von Hoff Award for Outstanding Contributions to Education and Training in Cancer Research

Chimpanzee stem cells offer new insights into early embryonic development

This injected protein-like polymer helps tissues heal after a heart attack

FlexTech inaugural issue launches, pioneering interdisciplinary innovation in flexible technology

In Down syndrome mice, 40Hz light and sound improve cognition, neurogenesis, connectivity

Methyl eugenol: potential to inhibit oxidative stress, address related diseases, and its toxicological effects

A vascularized multilayer chip reveals shear stress-induced angiogenesis in diverse fluid conditions

AI helps unravel a cause of Alzheimer's disease and identify a therapeutic candidate

Coalition of Autism Scientists critiques US Department of Health and Human Services Autism Research Initiative

Structure dictates effectiveness, safety in nanomedicine

Mission accomplished for the “T2T” Hong Kong Bauhinia Genome Project

[Press-News.org] Does endogenous technological change matter in model-based climate change narratives?