A third of children worldwide forecast to be obese or overweight by 2050

Obesity rates are set to skyrocket, with one in six children and adolescents worldwide forecast to be obese by 2050, according to a new study. But with significant increases predicted within the next five years, the researchers stress urgent action now could turn the tide on the public health crisis.

The research, led by Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) and published in The Lancet, found a third of children and adolescents will be overweight (385 million) or obese (360 million) within the next 25 years. The forecast equates to 356 million children aged 5–14 years and 390 million aged 15–24 years with one in six facing obesity.

The global obesity rate for those between 5-24 years old tripled from 1990 to 2021, rising by 244 per cent to 174 million, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in obesity have failed a generation of young people. As of 2021, 493 million children and adolescents were overweight or obese.

MCRI Dr Jessica Kerr said if immediate five-year action plans were not developed, the future was bleak for our youth. 

“Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic,” she said. Prevention is key as obesity rarely resolves after adolescence.

“This giant burden will not only cost the health system and the economy billions, but complications associated with a high Body Mass Index (BMI), including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing issues, fertility problems and mental health challenge, will negatively impact our children and adolescents now and into the future, even holding the potential to impact our grandchildren’s risk of obesity and quality of life for decades to come.

“Despite these findings indicating monumental societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action across the entire developmental window to reduce obesity, our results provide optimism that this trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030.”

The analysis, released on World Obesity Day, used the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation to estimate the latest overweight and obesity levels and forecasts in 204 countries and territories.

The United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru and Tonga are forecast to have the highest prevalence while China, Egypt, India and the US will have the greatest number of children and adolescents with obesity by 2050.

In Australia, children and adolescents have experienced some of the fastest transitions to obesity in the world. Girls are already more likely to be obese than overweight. Overall, by 2050 for those aged 5-24 years, 2.2 million are forecasted to be obese and 1.6 million overweight.

Globally, there will be more boys, 5–14 years, with obesity than being overweight by 2050.

“Without urgent policy reform, the transition to obesity will be particularly rapid in north Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and in the Caribbean, where the rise is concurrent with high population numbers and limited resources,” Dr Kerr said.

“Many regions have historically had to focus on preventing undernutrition and stunting in children. To prevent a public health emergency from this newer threat, an immediate imperative should be creating national surveillance surveys of obesity in children and adolescents in every country.”

Dr Kerr said older adolescent girls, aged 15-24 years entering their reproductive years, were a priority population for intervention.

“Adolescent girls who are obese are a main focus if we are to avoid intergenerational transmission of obesity, chronic conditions and the dire financial and societal costs across future generations,” she said.

“With this age group increasingly being out of school and cared for by adult services, we need to focus interventions at the community and commercial level.”

MCRI Professor Susan Sawyer said governments needed to invest in multicomponent strategies that reduce obesity drivers, across food and drink, activity, lifestyle and the built environment.

“While people and families can work to balance their physical activity, diet and sleep, everything in our environments works to counteract these efforts,” she said.

“Given this huge global shift in children’s and adolescents’ weight, we can no longer keep blaming people for their choices. We require governments to step up by addressing regulatory interventions including taxing sugar sweetened beverages, banning junk food advertising aimed at children and young people and funding healthy meals in primary and secondary schools. We also need to consider the benefits of wider policies such as overhauling urban planning to encourage active lifestyles.” 

Publication: ‘Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,’ The Lancet.

*The content of this communication is the sole responsibility of MCRI and does not reflect the views of the NHMRC.

Available for interview:

Dr Jessica Kerr, MCRI Adolescent Health researcher

Professor Susan Sawyer, MCRI, Group Leader, Adolescent Health

Professor Peter Azzopardi, MCRI, Group Leader, Global Adolescent Health

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