As the atmosphere changes, so will its response to geomagnetic storms

Satellite operators can expect less density during space weather events

2025-08-14

(Press-News.org) Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere will change the way geomagnetic storms impact Earth, with potential implications for thousands of orbiting satellites, according to new research led by scientists at the US. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR).

Geomagnetic storms, caused by massive eruptions of charged particles from the surface of the Sun that buffet Earth’s atmosphere, are a growing challenge for our technologically dependent society. The storms temporarily increase the density of the upper atmosphere and therefore the drag on satellites, which impacts their speed, altitude, and how long they remain operational.

The new study used an advanced computer model to determine that the upper atmosphere’s density will be lower during a future geomagnetic storm compared with a present-day storm of the same intensity. That’s because the baseline density will be lower, and future storms won’t increase it to levels as high as what occurs with storms currently.

However, the relative magnitude of the density increase — the rise from baseline to peak during a multiday storm — will be greater with future storms.

“The way that energy from the Sun affects the atmosphere will change in the future because the background density of the atmosphere is different and that creates a different response,” said NSF NCAR scientist Nicolas Pedatella, the lead author. “For the satellite industry, this is an especially important question because of the need to design satellites for specific atmospheric conditions.”

The study, a collaboration with Japan’s Kyushu University, was published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Colder and thinner air

Earth’s upper atmosphere has become increasingly important in recent decades because of society’s dependence on advanced navigation systems, online data transmission, national security applications, and other technologies that rely on satellite operations.

Unlike the lower atmosphere, which warms with emissions of carbon dioxide, the upper atmosphere becomes colder. This has to do with the varying impacts of carbon dioxide: instead of absorbing and reemitting heat to nearby molecules in the relatively dense air near Earth’s surface, carbon dioxide reemits the heat out into space at high altitudes where the air is much thinner.

Previous studies have estimated the extent to which increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a decrease in the upper atmosphere’s neutral density, or its concentration of non-ionized particles such as oxygen and nitrogen. But Pedatella and his colleagues posed a somewhat different question: how will future atmospheric density change during powerful geomagnetic storms?

The researchers homed in on the geomagnetic superstorm of May 10-11, 2024, when a series of powerful solar disturbances known as coronal mass ejections buffeted Earth’s atmosphere. They analyzed how the atmosphere would have responded to the same storm in 2016 and in three future years that will each occur around the minimum of the 11-year solar cycle (2040, 2061, and 2084).

To perform the analysis, they turned to an NSF NCAR-based modeling system, the Community Earth System Model Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension, that simulates the entire atmosphere from Earth’s surface to the upper thermosphere, 500-700 kilometers (about 310-435 miles) above the surface. This enables scientists to determine how changes in the lower atmosphere, such as higher concentrations of greenhouse gases, can affect remote regions of the atmosphere far aloft.

They ran the simulations on the Derecho supercomputer at the NSF NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center.

The researchers found that, later this century, various regions of the upper atmosphere will be 20-50% less dense at the peak of a storm comparable to the one that occurred last year, assuming significantly higher carbon dioxide levels. However, compared with the atmosphere’s density just before and after the storm, the relative change in density will be greater. Whereas such a storm now more than doubles the density at its peak, it may nearly triple it in the future. This is because the same storm will have a proportionately larger impact on a less dense atmosphere.

Pedatella said more research is needed to better understand how space weather will change, including studying different types of geomagnetic storms and whether their impacts will vary at various times in the 11-year solar cycle, when the atmosphere’s density changes.

“We now have the capability with our models to explore the very complex interconnections between the lower and upper atmosphere,” he said. “It’s critical to know how these changes will occur because they have profound ramifications for our atmosphere.”

About the article

Title: Impact of Increasing Greenhouse Gases on the Ionosphere and Thermosphere Response to a May 2024-Like Geomagnetic Superstorm
Authors: Nicholas M. Pedatella, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Adam Herrington, Joseph McInerney
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters

This material is based upon work supported by the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, a major facility sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation and managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.

END

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

First transfer of behavior between species through single gene manipulation

2025-08-14

Researchers in Japan have genetically transferred a unique courtship behavior from one fruit fly species to another. By turning on a single gene in insulin-producing neurons, the team successfully made a species of fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) perform a gift-giving ritual it had never done before. The study, published in the journal Science, represents the first example of manipulating a single gene to create new neural connections and transfer behavior between species. In nature, most male fruit flies court mates by rapidly vibrating their wings to create sound patterns or “courtship songs." However, Drosophila subobscura ...

A new network could help predict health problems in your pup

2025-08-14

A network analysis of more than 26,000 dogs and their health conditions helps reveal which diseases tend to go together, providing data that veterinarians and researchers can use to help treat the problems that dog man’s best friend face, according to a study published DATE in the open-access journal PLOS Computational Biology by Antoinette Fang from the Fred Hutchingson Cancer Center in Seattle, Washington, USA, and colleagues. As both humans and their pups age, conditions and diseases accumulate, but some are more likely to be comorbid—or occur together—than ...

Connecting biofuel and conservation policies

2025-08-14

While biofuels may be part of the solution to replace fossil fuels and reduce climate-warming carbon emissions, bioenergy needs a new “climate-smart” policy to ensure that it produces both low-carbon products and promotes carbon sequestration, according to Madhu Khanna and colleagues. In this Policy Forum, Khanna et al. note that current policies to promote bioenergy in the United States, such as the Renewable Fuel Standard and Low Carbon Fuel Standard, do not distinguish between carbon intensities ...

Deep learning model successfully predicted ignition in inertial confinement fusion experiment

2025-08-14

Brian Spears and colleagues built a generative machine learning model that was used to successfully predict the outcome of a recent fusion ignition experiment at the U.S. National Ignition Facility (NIF). Their model predicted, with a probability greater than 70%, that ignition was the most likely outcome of the experiment. The findings could guide researchers working on future inertial confinement fusion experiments, which use energetic lasers to compress and heat a capsule of hydrogen isotopes to create nuclear reactions that produce fusion energy. Ignition ...

Maternal antibodies in breast milk regulate early immune responses in mouse gut

2025-08-14

The first weeks outside the womb are a massive learning experience for the neonatal immune system, especially in the gut as it learns to distinguish helpful from harmful antigens. In mice, maternal antibodies ingested in breast milk in the first week after birth help to regulate immune responses in the newborn gut, according to a new study by Meera Shenoy and colleagues. This process builds the important partnership between the microbiome and host at an early stage, paving the way for nutrient assimilation, avoiding inappropriate inflammation and resistance against pathogens. ...

Densely planted maize communicates with neighboring plants to defend against pests

2025-08-14

A careful experiment by Dongsheng Guo and colleagues reveals that maize in a densely planted plot can communicate with neighboring plants through the release of the volatile gas linalool, triggering the roots of its neighbors to release compounds that can change the bacterial composition of the soil. This plant-soil communication helps the plants defend against the increased risk of pests and predation found in high-density plantings, Guo et al. conclude. The findings could aid agricultural researchers looking for ways to sustainably optimize crop yield through different planting patterns and possibly through targeting linalool production. ...

Paper: Decarbonize agriculture by expanding policies aimed at low-carbon biofuels

2025-08-14

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — A team of agricultural economists, environmental scientists and policy experts envisions a path toward a carbon-neutral agricultural future by expanding the reach of policies designed to promote low-carbon biofuels for transportation and aviation. In a new paper in the journal Science, the researchers propose policies that would reward farmers for adopting “climate-smart” practices when growing biofuel crops and remove the hurdles that currently thwart such efforts. Climate-smart practices include techniques that build soil carbon, like cover-cropping, not tilling fields after harvest and adding biochar ...

New tech speeds up AI training for drug discovery/disease research

2025-08-14

University of Oregon bioengineer Calin Plesa has developed technology that creates massive, high-quality biological datasets at unprecedented speed and scale, solving a critical bottleneck that has prevented AI from tackling biology's biggest challenges—from studying cancer-associated genes to designing new proteins to accelerating drug development. In research detailed in the latest edition of Science Advances, Plesa used this technology to uncover genetic factors behind antimicrobial resistance, demonstrating how to generate the vast datasets needed to train powerful machine learning systems faster and cheaper than ever before. END ...

Researchers synthesize a new allotrope of carbon

2025-08-14

Images available via the multimedia section. Chemists have demonstrated the synthesis of a new molecular form of carbon. The new molecule – cyclo[48]carbon, made up of 48 carbon atoms in an alternating single/triple bond pattern – is stable enough to be studied in liquid solution form at room temperature. The study – only the second example of a new type of molecular carbon allotrope that can be studied under normal laboratory conditions – has been published today (14 August) in Science. In a new study led by Oxford University’s Department of Chemistry, chemists have demonstrated the synthesis ...

Scientists hack microbes to identify environmental sources of methane

2025-08-14

Roughly two-thirds of all emissions of atmospheric methane — a highly potent greenhouse gas that is warming planet Earth — come from microbes that live in oxygen-free environments like wetlands, rice fields, landfills and the guts of cows. Tracking atmospheric methane to its specific sources and quantifying their importance remains a challenge, however. Scientists are pretty good at tracing the sources of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, to focus on mitigating these emissions. But to trace methane’s origins, scientists often have to measure the isotopic composition of methane's component atoms, carbon and hydrogen, to ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

ORC2 regulation of human gene expression shows unexpected breadth and scale

Researchers track how iron deficiency disrupts photosynthesis in crucial ocean algae

A Mount Sinai-Led team creates model for understanding how the brain’s decision-making is impacted in psychiatric disorders

"Every Brilliant Thing”, the interactive one-person play with a suicidality theme now making its West End debut, reduced suicide-associated stigma among university students who attended, even up to 30