Shifting to more plant-based diets could reduce global agricultural labour needs by 5–28 per cent by 2030, the equivalent of 18–106 million full-time jobs.
The global rebalancing of food production could cut agricultural labour costs by US $290–995 billion each year, equal to around 0.2–0.6 per cent of global GDP.
Countries with livestock-heavy agriculture would see the biggest declines in labour demand, while others - especially lower-income nations - could need 18–56 million more workers to grow fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts.
The study provides the first detailed, country-level assessment of how dietary change affects farming jobs across 179 countries.
Policy planning and support - including retraining, redeployment and investment in horticulture - will be vital to ensure a fair transition for agricultural workers.
A global shift towards healthier, more sustainable eating patterns could reshape agricultural employment across the world, according to new research from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI).
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health and led by Dr Marco Springmann, Senior Researcher at the ECI and Professorial Research Fellow at UCL, examined how dietary patterns such as flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian and vegan diets would affect the number of people working to grow, raise and harvest food in 179 countries.
By combining detailed data on labour requirements for crops and livestock with models of global food production, the researchers estimated how dietary changes could affect the agricultural workforce. They found that adopting more plant-based diets could reduce global agricultural labour needs by 5–28 per cent (equivalent to 18–106 million full-time jobs) by 2030, mainly due to lower demand for livestock production.
At the same time, around 18–56 million additional full-time workers could be needed in horticulture to produce fruits, vegetables, legumes and other plant-based foods. Overall, these changes could reduce global labour costs by US $290–995 billion per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), equal to around 0.2–0.6 per cent of global GDP.
While these shifts could bring efficiency gains, the study emphasises the need for policy and planning to ensure that transitions are fair. Measures such as retraining, redeployment and investment in horticultural production will be crucial to support workers and rural communities as food systems evolve.*
Dr Springmann said: ‘Dietary change doesn’t just affect our health and the planet—it also has a big impact on people’s livelihoods. Moving away from meat-heavy diets reduces the need for labour in animal production but increases demand in horticulture and food services. Consistent strategies and political support will be needed to enable just transitions both into and out of agricultural labour.’
Co-authors include Professor Michael Obersteiner (Director of the ECI), Dr Yiorgos Vittis, an agricultural and food economist, and Professor Sir Charles Godfray (Director of the Oxford Martin School) at the University of Oxford.
The study used a detailed global inventory of agricultural labour requirements alongside a biophysical food-system model to estimate labour needs for 20 food groups at global, regional and national levels. It provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of how changes in diets could reshape employment in agriculture.
Read the full study in The Lancet Planetary Health: Labour requirements for healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels: a modelling study
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101342
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* The wage-cost estimates are illustrative and do not include potential economic feedbacks (for example, changes in wages or prices). The analysis covers primary production only and does not include processing or post-farm-gate employment.
Notes for editors
Three graphics available showing global labour impacts, regional differences and horticultural job gains. Download here.
The paper ‘Labour requirements for healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels: a modelling study' will be published in The Lancet Planetary Health on Monday 3rd November.
The DOI for the paper will be: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101342
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About the Environmental Change Institute
The Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford, established in 1991, is a world-leading centre for interdisciplinary research on environmental change. ECI brings together expertise across the natural, social, and physical sciences to better understand the causes and consequences of environmental change, and to inform policy and practice for a more sustainable and resilient future.
About the University of Oxford
The University of Oxford has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the ninth successive year and leads the Guardian University Guide 2026. At the heart of this success are the twin pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.
Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.
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