(Press-News.org) Generative AI is reshaping software development – and fast. A new study published in Science shows that AI-assisted coding is spreading rapidly, though unevenly: in the U.S., the share of new code relying on AI rose from 5% in 2022 to 29% in early 2025, compared with just 12% in China. AI usage is highest among less experienced programmers, but productivity gains go to seasoned developers.
The software industry is enormous. In the U.S. economy alone, firms spend an estimated $600 billion a year in wages on coding-related work. Every day, billions of lines of code keep the global economy running. How is AI changing this backbone of modern life?
In a study published in Science, a research team led by the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) found that by the end of 2024, around one-third of all newly written software functions – self-contained subroutines in a computer program – in the United States were already being created with the support of AI systems.
“We analyzed more than 30 million Python contributions from roughly 160,000 developers on GitHub, the world’s largest collaborative programming platform,” says Simone Daniotti of CSH and Utrecht University. GitHub records every step of coding – additions, edits, improvements – allowing researchers to track programming work across the globe in real time. Python is one of the most widely used programming languages in the world.
REGIONAL GAPS ARE LARGE
The team used a specially trained AI model to identify whether blocks of code were AI-generated, for instance via ChatGPT or GitHub Copilot.
“The results show extremely rapid diffusion,” explains Frank Neffke, who leads the Transforming Economies group at CSH. “In the U.S., AI-assisted coding jumped from around 5% in 2022 to nearly 30% in the last quarter of 2024.”
At the same time, the study found wide differences across countries. “While the share of AI-supported code is highest in the U.S. at 29%, Germany reaches 23% and France 24%, followed by India at 20%, which has been catching up fast,” he says, while Russia (15%) and China (12%) still lagged behind at the end of the study.
“It's no surprise the U.S. leads – that's where the leading LLMs come from. Users in China and Russia have faced barriers to accessing these models, blocked by their own governments or by the providers themselves, though VPN workarounds exist. Recent domestic Chinese breakthroughs like DeepSeek, released after our data ends in early 2025, suggest this gap may close quickly,” says Johannes Wachs, a faculty member at CSH and associate professor at Corvinus University of Budapest.
EXPERIENCED DEVELOPERS BENEFIT MOST
The study shows that the use of generative AI increased programmers’ productivity by 3.6% by the end of 2024. “That may sound modest, but at the scale of the global software industry it represents a sizeable gain,” says Neffke, who is also a professor at Interdisciplinary Transformation University Austria (IT:U).
The study finds no differences in AI usage between women and men. By contrast, experience levels matter: less experienced programmers use generative AI in 37% of their code, compared to just 27% for experienced programmers. Despite this, the productivity gains the study documents are driven exclusively by experienced users. "Beginners hardly benefit at all," says Daniotti. Generative AI therefore does not automatically level the playing field; it can widen existing gaps.
In addition, experienced software developers experiment more with new libraries and unusual combinations of existing software tools. "This suggests that AI does not only accelerate routine tasks, but also speeds up learning, helping experienced programmers widen their capabilities and more easily venture into new domains of software development," says Wachs.
ECONOMIC GAINS
What does all of this mean for the economy? “The U.S. spends an estimated $637 billion to $1.06 trillion annually in wages on programming tasks, according to an analysis of about 900 different occupations,” says co-author Xiangnan Feng from CSH. If 29% of code is AI-assisted and productivity rises by 3.6%, that adds between $23 and $38 billion in value each year. “This is likely a conservative estimate,” Neffke points out, “the economic impact of generative AI in software development was already substantial at the end of 2024 and is likely to have increased further since our analysis.”
LOOKING AHEAD
Software development is undergoing profound transformation. AI is becoming central to digital infrastructure, boosting productivity and fostering innovation – but mainly for people who already have substantial work experience.
“For businesses, policymakers, and educational institutes, the key question is not whether AI will be used, but how to make its benefits accessible without reinforcing inequalities,” says Wachs. “When even a car has essentially become a software product, we need to understand the hurdles to AI adoption – at the company, regional, and national levels – as quickly as possible,” Neffke adds.
____
The study “Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI” by Simone Daniotti, Johannes Wachs, Xiangnan Feng, and Frank Neffke has been published in Science (doi: 10.1126/science.adz9311).
More information, including a copy of the paper, can be found online at the Science press package at https://www.eurekalert.org/press/scipak/
END
AI is already writing almost one-third of new software code
2026-01-22
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
A 5,500-year-old genome rewrites the origins of syphilis
2026-01-22
A newly sequenced genome of the bacterium that causes syphilis, Treponema pallidum, highlights the deep antiquity of treponemal diseases in the Americas. The findings, based on a 5,500-year-old specimen from Colombia, suggest syphilis’s emergence was not dependent on the agricultural intensification and population crowding often linked to the spread of infectious disease. Instead, it was dependent on social and ecological conditions of hunter-gatherer societies. “Reframing syphilis, alongside other infectious diseases, as products of both localized and highly specific ...
Tracking uncontrolled space debris reentry using sonic booms
2026-01-22
Researchers present a novel way to track errant space debris as it falls to Earth in near-real-time, according to a new study. Their method uses ground-based seismic sensors. Over the last several years, the number of spent spacecraft and other debris reentering Earth’s atmosphere has grown exponentially. These uncontrolled reentries pose increasing risks to human life, infrastructure, and the environment. As Earth’s orbit grows increasingly crowded and reentries become more frequent – potentially involving spacecraft carrying toxic, flammable, or radioactive materials – these risks are expected to become more of ...
Endogenous retroviruses promote early human zygotic development
2026-01-22
New findings offer insight into why some embryos fail to develop past zygotic genome activation (ZGA), pointing to an unexpected root of human infertility. A critical point in early development is zygotic genome activation (ZGA), a milestone that marks the transition from reliance on maternal factors to activation of its own genome. This process requires a comprehensive reshaping of chromatin and transcription networks. Failures in ZGA are a major cause of early embryo arrest and contribute to cases of infertility and pregnancy loss. Previous research has shown that endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) – genetic remnants of ancient viral infections ...
Malicious AI swarms pose emergent threats to democracy
2026-01-22
In a Policy Forum, Daniel Schroeder and colleagues discuss the risks of malicious “Artificial Intelligence (AI) swarms”, which enable a new class of large-scale, coordinated disinformation campaigns that pose significant risks to democracy. Manipulation of public opinion has long relied on rhetoric and propaganda. However, modern AI systems have created powerful new tools for shaping human beliefs and behavior on a societal scale. Large language models (LLMs) and autonomous agents can now generate vast amounts of persuasive, human-like content. When combined into collaborative AI Swarms – collections of AI-driven personas that retain memory and identity – ...
Progenitor cells in the brain constantly attempt to produce new myelin-producing brain cells
2026-01-22
**EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE UNTIL THURSDAY, JAN. 22, AT 2 P.M. ET**
In experiments with mice, Johns Hopkins Medicine scientists report new evidence that precursors of myelin-producing cells — one of the few brain cell types that continue to be produced in the adult brain — undergo differentiation widely and at a constant pace, rather than “as needed” in response to injury or advancing age. The findings, say the scientists, suggest that treatments to combat myelin-damaging diseases such as multiple sclerosis may benefit from maximizing this intrinsic potential.
The new study, funded by the National Institutes of Health ...
Quantum measurements with entangled atomic clouds
2026-01-22
Researchers at the University of Basel and the Laboratoire Kastler Brossel have demonstrated how quantum mechanical entanglement can be used to measure several physical parameters simultaneously with greater precision.
Entanglement is probably the most puzzling phenomenon observed in quantum systems. It causes measurements on two quantum objects, even if they are at different locations, to exhibit statistical correlations that should not exist according to classical physics – it’s almost as if a measurement on one object influences the other one at a distance. The experimental demonstration of this effect, also known as the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen ...
Mayo Clinic researchers use AI to predict patient falls based on core density in middle age
2026-01-22
ROCHESTER, Minn. — Artificial intelligence (AI) applied to abdominal imaging can help predict adults at higher risk of falling as early as middle age, a new Mayo Clinic study shows. The research, published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings, highlights the importance of abdominal muscle quality, a component of core strength, as a key predictor of fall risk in adults aged 45 years and older.
Falls are a leading cause of injury, especially among older adults. Mayo Clinic researchers found that early markers of ...
Moffitt study develops new tool to predict how cancer evolves
2026-01-22
Key Highlights
Researchers developed a new method to predict how cancer cells evolve by gaining or losing whole chromosomes.
Chromosome changes create rapid shifts that help tumors grow, adapt and resist treatment.
The new tool, called ALFA-K, maps how favorable or harmful chromosome changes are in different cancer cells.
The study quantifies how whole-genome doubling helps cancer cells survive high levels of chromosomal instability.
Findings lay the groundwork for evolution-aware approaches to cancer ...
National Multiple Sclerosis Society awards Dr. Manuel A. Friese the 2025 Barancik Prize for Innovation in MS Research
2026-01-22
Manuel A. Friese, MD, clinician-scientist at the Institute of Neuroimmunology and Multiple Sclerosis of the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf in Hamburg, Germany was awarded the 2025 Barancik Prize for Innovation in MS Research. He is being recognized for his groundbreaking work studying the interactions between inflammation and nerve cell death (also called neurodegeneration) that drive disease progression. His work has the potential to identify new therapeutic targets for MS. It also brings the field closer to stopping disease progression, ...
PBM profits obscured by mergers and accounting practices, USC Schaeffer white paper shows
2026-01-22
Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) under the microscope for their role in high drug prices have often cited their reportedly slim profit margins as evidence that they do not drive up costs. The three leading PBMs, which control about 80% of the prescription drug market, have historically reported profit margins of 4% to 7%, among the lowest in the healthcare industry.
A new white paper from the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics demonstrates that these slim margins are dramatically influenced by the accounting practices PBMs elect to employ. The paper also shows how efforts to assess PBM profits have become more challenging ...