PRESS-NEWS.org - Press Release Distribution
PRESS RELEASES DISTRIBUTION

Fluctuations before the fall: Predicting and preventing environmental collapse

Fluctuations before the fall: Predicting and preventing environmental collapse
2011-04-29
(Press-News.org) (Millbrook, N.Y.) By closely monitoring environmental conditions at a remote Wisconsin lake, researchers have found that models used to assess catastrophic changes in economic and medical systems can also predict environmental collapse. Stock market crashes, epileptic seizures, and ecological breakdowns are all preceded by a measurable increase in variance—be it fluctuations in brain waves, the Dow Jones index, or, in the case of the Wisconsin lake, chlorophyll.

In a paper published this week in the journal Science, a team of ecologists is the first to show that by paying attention to variability in key ecosystem processes, scientists can detect the early warning signs that herald environmental collapse. Insight into regime shifts—the reorganization of an ecosystem from one state to another—is critical to identifying ecosystems that will fail without intervention.

"Early warning signs help you prepare for, and hopefully prevent, the worst case scenario," notes contributing author Jonathan J. Cole, a biogeochemist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies. "We are surrounded by problems caused by ecological regime shifts—water supply shortages, fishery declines, unproductive rangeland—our study shows that there is promise in identifying these changes before they reach their tipping point."

The team, led by Stephen Carpenter, a limnologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, triggered a regime shift in a Wisconsin lake by introducing a top predator. The study lake was originally dominated by small fish, such as golden shiners, that feed on tiny free-swimming invertebrates. Researchers destabilized the lake by adding largemouth bass. The goal: to observe the cascade of environmental changes that eventually led to a food web dominated by piscivorous, or fish-eating, fish.

Throughout the lake's three-year manipulation, its chemical, biological, and physical vital signs were continuously monitored to track even the smallest changes. It was in these massive sets of data that researchers were able to detect the signals of the ecosystem's impending collapse.

As the number of bass increased, smaller fish spent more time swimming in groups near the shoreline, to avoid being eaten. Freed from predation, invertebrates living in the open water shifted to forms that were larger in size. Phytoplankton, the preferred food of these invertebrates, became more variable. Bass populations increased, as they fed on the smaller fish. Within three years the lake's food web had completely shifted to one dominated by fish-eating fish and larger free-swimming invertebrates

More significantly, more than a year before the food web transition was complete, variance in chlorophyll measurements was a reliable early warning indicator of the impending food web regime shift.

"The field experiment is a validated statistical early warning system for ecosystem collapse. With more work, this could revolutionize ecosystem management," Carpenter comments. The catch, however, is that for the early warning system to work, continuous monitoring of an ecosystem's chemistry, physical properties, and biota are required. The chlorophyll red flag would only work for identifying food web shifts in freshwater lakes.

Such an approach may not be practical for every threatened ecosystem, says Carpenter, but he also cites the price of doing nothing: "These regime shifts tend to be hard to reverse. It is like a runaway train once it gets going and the costs, both ecological and economic, are high."

Cole concludes, "Automated sensors, remote sensing technology, and computing are making continuous environmental monitoring much more accessible. And identifying early warning signs across a variety of ecosystems could help us prioritize management efforts."



INFORMATION:

The project was funded by the National Science Foundation. In addition to Cole and Carpenter, authors include Michael Pace, James Coloso, and David Seekell of the University of Virginia at Charlottesville; James Hodgson of St. Norbert College; and Ryan Batt, William Brock, Tim Cline, James Kitchell, Laura Smith, and Brian Weidel of UW-Madison.

The Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies is a private, not-for-profit environmental research and education organization in Millbrook, N.Y. For over twenty five years, Cary Institute scientists have been investigating the complex interactions that govern the natural world. Their objective findings lead to more effective policy decisions and increased environmental literacy. Focal areas include air and water pollution, climate change, invasive species, and the ecological dimensions of infectious disease. Learn more at www.caryinstitute.org.


[Attachments] See images for this press release:
Fluctuations before the fall: Predicting and preventing environmental collapse

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Precise Air Systems, Inc. Has Been Providing Services for HVAC in Los Angeles Since 1975 and Offers Tips for Running Your Air Conditioner Efficiently

2011-04-29
When the temperatures heat up dramatically, the air conditioner runs nonstop, putting a huge burden on the cooling system. It could help save money on energy costs and reduce your need for air conditioning repair in Los Angeles if you run your air conditioner efficiently. Precise Air Systems, Inc. provides helpful tips: - Set your thermostat at 78 degree Fahrenheit and leave it there. Moving the thermostat to a lower temperature setting won't get your home to 78 degree any faster. - Keep your blinds and curtains closed to keep the direct rays of the sun from entering ...

Clinical trial recommends new antibiotic for treating typhoid in low income countries

2011-04-29
A large clinical trial comparing treatments for typhoid has recommended the use of gatifloxacin, a new generation and affordable antibiotic. The results of the trial in Kathmandu, Nepal, funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Li Ka Shing Foundation, are published today in the Lancet Infectious Diseases. Typhoid – also known as 'enteric fever' – is characterised by a high fever and diarrhoea. It is transmitted through the ingestion of food or drink contaminated by the faeces or urine of infected people. It causes an estimated 26 million infections each year and over 200,000 ...

Concern over 'excessive' doses of thyroid drugs for older patients

2011-04-29
Many older adults may be taking "excessive" doses of drugs for thyroid problems which can lead to an increased risk of fractures, finds a study published on bmj.com today. The study raises concern that treatment targets may need to be modified in the elderly and that regular dose monitoring remains essential even into older age. Levothyroxine is a synthetic form of thyroxine (thyroid hormone) and is widely used to treat an underactive thyroid gland (hypothyroidism). Most hypothyroid patients are diagnosed in early or middle adulthood but, as people age, their thyroxine ...

Electrical oscillations found to be critical for storing spatial memories in brain

Electrical oscillations found to be critical for storing spatial memories in brain
2011-04-29
Biologists at UC San Diego have discovered that electrical oscillations in the brain, long thought to play a role in organizing cognitive functions such as memory, are critically important for the brain to store the information that allows us to navigate through our physical environment. The scientists report in the April 29 issue of the journal Science that neurons called "grid cells" that create maps of the external environment in one portion of our brain require precisely timed electrical oscillations in order to function properly from another part of the brain that ...

Use of costly breast cancer therapy strongly influenced by reimbursement policy

2011-04-29
What Medicare would pay for and where a radiation oncologist practiced were two factors that strongly influenced the choice of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for treating breast cancer, according to an article published April 29 online in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute. The use of IMRT and the cost of radiation therapy increased sharply over the period of the study. IMRT is a radiation delivery technique that modulates the radiation beams to conform to the shape of the tumor or tumor bed in an attempt to maximize the dose of radiation to the ...

Eddies found to be deep, powerful modes of ocean transport

2011-04-29
Researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and their colleagues have discovered that massive, swirling ocean eddies—known to be up to 500 kilometers across at the surface—can reach all the way to the ocean bottom at mid-ocean ridges, some 2,500 meters deep, transporting tiny sea creatures, chemicals, and heat from hydrothermal vents over large distances. The previously unknown deep-sea phenomenon, reported in the April 28 issue of the journal Science, helps explain how some larvae travel huge distances from one vent area to another, said Diane K. Adams, ...

2 unsuspected proteins may hold the key to creating artificial chromosomes

2011-04-29
FINDINGS: Whitehead Institute scientists report that two proteins once thought to have only supporting roles, are the true "stars" of the kinetochore assembly process in human cells. RELEVANCE: The kinetochore is vital to proper DNA distribution during cell division. This finding suggests that scientists may be able to stimulate kinetochore assembly in a process that could lead to new genetic research tools, such as efficient creation of artificial human chromosomes. Widespread use of artificial human chromosomes has been thwarted by scientists' current inability to ...

Mutant mouse reveals new wrinkle in genetic code, say UCSF scientists

2011-04-29
Call it a mystery with a stubby tail: an odd-looking mouse discovered through a U.S. government breeding program in the 1940s that had a short, kinky tail and an extra set of ribs in its neck – and nobody knew why. A team of scientists led by researchers at the University of California, San Francisco has now spilled the genetic secrets of this mutant rodent. In doing so, they may have uncovered a new wrinkle in the genetic code – an entirely unrecognized way our bodies regulate how genes are expressed in different tissues throughout life. This discovery has broad implications ...

Astronomers unveil portrait of 'super-exotic super-Earth:' Densest known rocky planet

2011-04-29
An international team of astronomers today revealed details of a "super-exotic" exoplanet that would make the planet Pandora in the movie Avatar pale in comparison. The planet, named 55 Cancri e, is 60 per cent larger in diameter than Earth but eight times as massive. Twice as dense as Earth – almost as dense as lead – it is the densest solid planet known, according to a team led by astronomers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the University of British Columbia (UBC), the Harvard‑Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the University of California ...

Water currents of South Africa could stabilize climate in Europe

2011-04-29
One of the ocean currents which particularly interests oceanographers and climatologists is the Gulf Stream. This current, originating in the Gulf of Mexico, transports enormous amounts of warm tropical waters to the North Atlantic and is the cause of Europe's habitable climate. Climate predictions point to the fact that this will change in the future and affect especially the climate in countries of the Mediterranean region, with more dry spells. As global warming progresses, the North Atlantic will receive more precipitation and a greater amount of water from the melting ...

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES:

Scientists unlock secrets behind flowering of the king of fruits

Texas A&M researchers illuminate the mysteries of icy ocean worlds

Prosthetic material could help reduce infections from intravenous catheters

Can the heart heal itself? New study says it can

Microscopic discovery in cancer cells could have a big impact

Rice researchers take ‘significant leap forward’ with quantum simulation of molecular electron transfer

Breakthrough new material brings affordable, sustainable future within grasp

How everyday activities inside your home can generate energy

Inequality weakens local governance and public satisfaction, study finds

Uncovering key molecular factors behind malaria’s deadliest strain

UC Davis researchers help decode the cause of aggressive breast cancer in women of color

Researchers discovered replication hubs for human norovirus

SNU researchers develop the world’s most sensitive flexible strain sensor

Tiny, wireless antennas use light to monitor cellular communication

Neutrality has played a pivotal, but under-examined, role in international relations, new research shows

Study reveals right whales live 130 years — or more

Researchers reveal how human eyelashes promote water drainage

Pollinators most vulnerable to rising global temperatures are flies, study shows

DFG to fund eight new research units

Modern AI systems have achieved Turing's vision, but not exactly how he hoped

Quantum walk computing unlocks new potential in quantum science and technology

Construction materials and household items are a part of a long-term carbon sink called the “technosphere”

First demonstration of quantum teleportation over busy Internet cables

Disparities and gaps in breast cancer screening for women ages 40 to 49

US tobacco 21 policies and potential mortality reductions by state

AI-driven approach reveals hidden hazards of chemical mixtures in rivers

Older age linked to increased complications after breast reconstruction

ESA and NASA satellites deliver first joint picture of Greenland Ice Sheet melting

Early detection model for pancreatic necrosis improves patient outcomes

Poor vascular health accelerates brain ageing

[Press-News.org] Fluctuations before the fall: Predicting and preventing environmental collapse