(Press-News.org) Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is an important tool in the understanding and prediction of epidemics. Knowledge of social interactions is used to understand how infectious diseases spread through populations and how to control epidemics. New research published in BMC Medicine shows that a model, which included dynamic information about the heterogeneity of contact length and rate of making new contacts, was as effective as a more complex model which included the order of contacts.
Data was collected over a two-day period, within the Socio Patterns project, which brings together researchers from Turin (Italy), Marseilles and Lyon (France). 405 people attending the 2009 Annual French Conference on Nosocomial Infections volunteered to wear radiofrequency identification device (RFID) which recorded face to face contacts (within a distance of 1-2m). Each day researchers recorded the number and duration of meetings between participants. Nearly 30,000 social contacts were recorded over the two days of the conference allowing dynamic networks to be constructed.
Three aggregations of this data set were used in a SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model of infection. The first (DYN) utilized dynamic and time-order specific data, the second (HET) retained heterogeneity of contacts but not the order of interactions, and the third (HOM) assumed that all interactions were random, homogeneous, and of the same length.
While it might be assumed that knowing the precise order of social contacts may help refine the model, the results from the first two scenarios, DYN and HET, were very similar producing a comparable number of infected individuals and taking the same time to reach peak infection. However, without enough data, the simplest scenario, HOM, estimated a larger number of infected people and therefore a more severe epidemic.
Dr Juliette Stehlé from Université de Marseilles concluded, "Adding real life data about the movement of people within social situations is important in refining computational models of how disease is spread. Our results have important implications for understanding the level of detail required needed to produce functional models and better models lead in turn to better anticipation, prevention, and management of emerging infection and epidemics."
###
Notes to Editors
1. Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees
Juliette Stehle, Nicolas Voirin, Alain Barrat, Ciro Cattuto, Vittoria Colizza, Lorenzo Isella, Corinne Régis, Jean-Francois Pinton, Nagham Khanafer, Wouter Van den Broeck and Philippe Vanhems
BMC Medicine (in press)
Commentary: The importance of including dynamic social networks when modeling epidemics of airborne infections: does increasing complexity increase accuracy?
Sally Blower and Myong-Hyun Go
BMC Medicine (in press)
Please name the journal in any story you write. If you are writing for the web, please link to the article. All articles are available free of charge, according to BioMed Central's open access policy.
Article citation and URL available on request at press@biomedcentral.com on the day of publication.
2. BMC Medicine - the flagship medical journal of the BMC series - publishes original research articles, commentaries and reviews in all areas of medical science and clinical practice. To be appropriate for BMC Medicine, articles need to be of outstanding quality, broad interest and special importance. BMC Medicine (ISSN 1741-7015) is indexed/tracked/covered by PubMed, MEDLINE, BIOSIS, CAS, EMBASE, Scopus, Current Contents, Thomson Reuters (ISI) and Google Scholar.
3. BioMed Central (http://www.biomedcentral.com/) is an STM (Science, Technology and Medicine) publisher which has pioneered the open access publishing model. All peer-reviewed research articles published by BioMed Central are made immediately and freely accessible online, and are licensed to allow redistribution and reuse. BioMed Central is part of Springer Science+Business Media, a leading global publisher in the STM sector.
4. The SocioPatterns project (http://www.sociopatterns.org/) is a research collaboration between the ISI Foundation (Italy), the Centre de Physique Théorique in Marseille (France), the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Lyon (France), and the Bitmanufaktur company (Germany). The interdisciplinary scientific research project put forward by this collaboration uses a data-driven methodology with the aim of uncovering fundamental patterns in social dynamics and coordinated human activity.
END
When the Hamiltons purchased their holiday home in Camposol Golf on the Costa Cálida six years ago, they had no aspirations for amassing a property portfolio. However, a combination of Barry's upcoming retirement and news of a Paramount-branded Theme Park encouraged them to take advantage of the current buyers' market and purchase an additional home in Camposol Golf.
Barry (51), from County Antrim in Northern Ireland, picks up the story, "Spain was an obvious choice for us as it's just a couple of hours by direct flight from Belfast, has excellent infrastructure, ...
Taking another major step in sleuthing the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a research team led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) has determined what chemicals were contained in a deep, hydrocarbon-containing plume at least 22 miles long that WHOI scientists mapped and sampled last summer in the Gulf of Mexico, a residue of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Moreover, they have taken a big step in explaining why some chemicals, but not others, made their way into the plume.
The findings, published this week in the online edition of the Proceedings of the ...
CHICAGO – Among Latinos living in the United States, acculturation is associated with sunscreen use, but not with use of sun-protective clothing, according to a report in the July issue of Archives of Dermatology, one of the JAMA/Archives journals.
According to background information in the article, DNA damage and skin cancer are an important health issue for U.S. Latinos. Their annual age-adjusted incidence of melanoma is 4.5 per 100,000, which represents an increase of 28.6 percent since 1992. Further, when melanoma is diagnosed, it tends to be thicker among Latinos ...
Young Frankenmuth writer Christopher Mundie has written a funny, up-beat book about the life of a special kind of guy; the kind of guy you wouldn't want to have at your party or end up owing any favors to. You know the type, the cynical, sarcastic, self-centered, lying and conniving—he's The Jerk. Being a Jerk isn't so bad though, it can get you free coffee, wads of cash and a gigantic fish (if you're lucky). You can definitely hate him, but there's one thing you can't blame him for, and that's for bumping into him in the first place.
I spoke with Christopher Mundie ...
Physician-based screening for melanoma is associated with higher rates of physician-detected melanoma and detection of thinner melanoma, according to a report published Online First today by Archives of Dermatology, one of the JAMA/Archives journals.
The disease-specific survival rate for advanced-stage melanoma is poor, so detecting the cancer in an earlier stage is the best means to ensure a favorable prognosis, according to background information in the article. Previous research has demonstrated that patients find most melanomas, and that those lesions tend to be ...
Removing a portion of the platysma muscle may ease symptoms for patients experiencing chronic neck stiffness and involuntary movement, according to a report in the July issue of Archives of Facial Plastic Surgery, one of the JAMA/Archives journals.
In previous research, removal of parts of the platysma—the muscle stretching from the shoulders and chest through the neck—appeared successful in alleviating hypertonicity (muscular rigidity), according to background information in the article. The authors, who had begun to use muscle-transfer surgeries to treat facial paresis ...
DALLAS – July 18, 2011 – Researchers at UT Southwestern Medical Center say there are at least 70 genetic mutations involved in the formation of colon cancer, far more than scientists previously thought.
Based on the study, published in the July 2011 Cancer Research (Priority Reports), researchers are suggesting a new approach to colon cancer treatments targeting multiple genes and pathways simultaneously. Current cancer treatments target just one or two known cancer-driver genes believing this would be beneficial to patients. While patients may get transient tumor burden ...
The South Bay Women's Network has long supported women's causes and August 2 the organization will host its Summer Mixer, an event dedicated to raising funds for an educational scholarship to be awarded to a female, adult re-entry student attending Cuesta College.
"There are many amazing women in this community who are daring to return to college and pursue their educational goals," said Mia Simmons, SBWN President. "The SBWN Summer Mixer is a wonderful way for our members to support that journey."
The scholarship is open to women returning to ...
Monday, 18 July, 2011 (Rome, Italy) - Researchers speaking in the first plenary session of the 6th IAS Conference on HIV Pathogenesis, Treatment and Prevention (IAS 2011) have today offered insights into current and future HIV prevention research and discussed how biomedical developments over the past two years are beginning to shape debate on the future of HIV prevention policy.
The presentations reflect the breadth of expertise among the more than 5,000 researchers, clinicians and community leaders attending the conference, which runs from 17-20 July in Rome.
"We ...
As any rock-climber knows, trailing a long length of rope behind you is not easy. A dangling length of rope is unwieldy and hard to manoeuvre, and can get tangled up or stuck on an outcropping. Cells face the same problem when dragging chromosomes apart during cell division. The chromosomes are pulled by their middle – the centromere – their arms trailing along behind. Just like climbers carry their rope coiled up, cells make the chromosome arms easier to pull by folding them into short, stiffer structures. In a study published online today in Nature Structural and Molecular ...
