Using transportation data to predict pandemics

New computational model demonstrates how disease spreads in a highly connected world

2013-02-16

(Press-News.org) In a world of increasing global connections, predicting the spread of infectious diseases is more complicated than ever. Pandemics no longer follow the patterns they did centuries ago, when diseases swept through populations town by town; instead, they spread quickly and seemingly at random, spurred by the interactions of 3 billion air travelers per year.

A computational model developed by Northwestern University's Dirk Brockmann could provide better insight into how today's diseases might strike. Brockmann, an associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, uses transportation data to develop models that better pinpoint the source of an outbreak and help determine how a disease could spread.

Brockmann will discuss his research in a presentation titled "Are Pandemics Predictable?" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Boston. His presentation is part of the symposium "Predictability: From Physical to Data Sciences" to be held from 8:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Saturday, Feb. 16.

The ability to pinpoint with certainty the location of a pandemic outbreak and to predict where and how quickly it will spread would give governments and clinicians an important -- and potentially lifesaving -- advantage in responding to the disease, but current prediction models are limited.

Previous pandemic models have been based on geographical distance, but geography provides an incomplete picture of a pandemic. For instance, New York City and London are geographically very far apart, but with approximately 10,000 people traveling between the cities each day, the cities are far more connected than, for instance, New York City and Milwaukee, which are geographically closer.

"Furthermore, cities with a very high level of connectedness, such as London, are important epicenters for tracking the spread of diseases," Brockmann said. "When a disease reaches these cities, it is likely to spread far and quickly."

Using network theory and official transportation data, Brockmann developed a model that can generate with high accuracy the origin of an outbreak and the predicted arrival times of a pandemic in specific locations. The model can generate these findings using only data about the geographical location and number of occurrences of the disease.

"Spatial disease dynamics become far more straightforward when viewed from the right perspective using our technique," Brockmann said.

### Symposium information: "Predictability: From Physical to Data Sciences"
8:30-11:30 a.m. Saturday, February 16
Room 204 (Hynes Convention Center)

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Historic legacy of lead pollution persists despite regulatory efforts

2013-02-16

Efforts to reduce lead pollution have paid off in many ways, yet the problem persists and will probably continue to affect the health of people and animals well into the future, according to experts speaking at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Boston. "Things have substantially improved with the virtual elimination of leaded gasoline, restrictions on lead paint, and other efforts to limit releases of industrial lead into the environment. But the historic legacy of lead pollution persists, and new inputs of industrial ...

Studying networks to help women succeed in science

2013-02-16

For women in science and research, finding a network of colleagues in their specialized area might be difficult: relevant researchers and activists can be spread across generations, cultures and continents. Finding a mentor within this group proves particularly difficult for young women and minorities. Northwestern University's Noshir Contractor will discuss his network research in a presentation titled "Understanding and Enabling Networks Among Women's Groups in Sustainable Development" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting ...

Teaching the brain to speak again

2013-02-16

Cynthia Thompson, a world-renowned researcher on stroke and brain damage, will discuss her groundbreaking research on aphasia and the neurolinguistic systems it affects Feb. 16 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). An estimated one million Americans suffer from aphasia, affecting their ability to understand and/or produce spoken and/or written language. Thompson, Northwestern's Ralph and Jean Sundin Professor of Communication Sciences, will participate in a 10 a.m. media briefing on "Tools for Regaining Speech" in Room ...

Modern life may cause sun exposure, skin pigmentation mismatch

2013-02-16

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- As people move more often and become more urbanized, skin color -- an adaptation that took hundreds of thousands of years to develop in humans -- may lose some of its evolutionary advantage, according to a Penn State anthropologist. About 2 million years ago, permanent dark skin color imparted by the pigment -- melanin -- began to evolve in humans to regulate the body's reaction to ultraviolet rays from the sun, said Nina Jablonski, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology. Melanin helped humans maintain the delicate balance between too much ...

Flow of research on ice sheets helps answer climate questions

2013-02-16

UNIVERSITY PARK, PA. -- Just as ice sheets slide slowly and steadily into the ocean, researchers are returning from each trip to the Arctic and Antarctic with more data about climate change, including information that will help improve current models on how climate change will affect life on the earth, according to a Penn State geologist. "It is not just correlation, it is causation," said Richard Alley, Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences. "We know that warming is happening and it's causing the sea levels to rise and if we expect more warming, we can expect the sea levels ...

Academics grapple with balancing their research with the need to communicate it to the public

2013-02-16

BOSTON – Researchers today more than ever focus their work on real-world problems, often times making their research relevant to the public locally, regionally and sometimes nationally. But engaging the public in their research can be a daunting task for researchers both professionally and personally. Leah Gerber, an Arizona State University associate professor in the School of Life Sciences and a senior sustainability scientist in the School of Sustainability, has identified impediments to productive science communication and she shared her recommendations at the 2013 ...

Deja vu all over again? Cultural understanding vs. horrors of eugenics

2013-02-16

Why is the world so full of "morons" and "degenerates" and what, if anything, can be done to fix them? These are questions that Robert W. Sussman, PhD, a professor of anthropology in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, will explore Feb. 15 as he addresses the 2013 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Boston, Mass. — one of the world's largest gatherings of scientific researchers. Sussman will deliver a talk on "The Importance of the Concept of Culture to Science and Society" (http://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2013/webprogram/Paper8433.html ...

To feed the world, give women equal rights

2013-02-16

Around the world, at least a billion people are hungry or need better diets. To feed a global population projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, we will need to increase food production by as much as 70 percent, most analysts believe. Achieving that goal requires civilization to address overpopulation and overconsumption through a bottom-up movement focused on agricultural, environmental and demographic planning, among other strategies, argues Stanford Woods Institute Senior Fellow Paul Ehrlich (Biology). A crucial first step is to give equal rights to women worldwide, ...

Researchers at St. Michael's Hospital test tool for screening cancer patients for malnutrition

2013-02-16

TORONTO, Feb. 15, 2013—Considering the many things a cancer patient has to think about, it's easy to understand why maintaining proper nutrition may not be top of mind. This can be true, too, at busy outpatient settings where it's often difficult to find the time and resources to test cancer patients for malnutrition. However, researchers at St. Michael's Hospital have found a shorter version of a commonly used nutrition-assessment tool does the job effectively and can potentially improve outcomes for cancer patients. "The full-length test for malnutrition is too ...

Forget about leprechauns, engineers are catching rainbows

2013-02-16

BUFFALO, N.Y. – University at Buffalo engineers have created a more efficient way to catch rainbows, an advancement in photonics that could lead to technological breakthroughs in solar energy, stealth technology and other areas of research. Qiaoqiang Gan, PhD, an assistant professor of electrical engineering at UB, and a team of graduate students described their work in a paper called "Rainbow Trapping in Hyperbolic Metamaterial Waveguide," published Feb. 13 in the online journal Scientific Reports. They developed a "hyperbolic metamaterial waveguide," which is essentially ...

Using transportation data to predict pandemics

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES: