(Press-News.org) An evolutionary analysis of public health data during a major disease outbreak, such as bird flu, E. coli contamination of food or the current Ebola outbreak could help the emergency services plan their response and contain the disease more effectively. Details are reported in the International Journal of Innovative Computing and Applications.
Dehai Liu of the Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, in Dalian, Liaoning, China, and colleagues have used evolutionary game theory to examine the data associated with a major public health event - the emergence of a new pandemic virus. The team explains that the characteristics of disease outbreaks in the modern world have shifted since the advent of high-speed air travel. Moreover, increased population density and changes in economics have meant that the progress of an epidemic will not necessarily follow the course nor move at the speed of historical "plagues" even up to the global influenza outbreaks of the twentieth century.
Evolutionary game theory is a mathematical tool that allows researchers to simulate various scenarios and predict outcomes. It essentially applies Darwinian selection to the contests, strategies, and analytics that various "actors" in the scenario might be involved. The Chinese team has now applied this approach to understanding the spread of disease and demonstrated that there are four main outcomes one might see with a pandemic in today's world all affected by the government response to the outbreak, the provision of healthcare, the isolation of patients and availability of treatments of the given disease.
Their approach tested on actual data from the 2009 outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) accords with a scenario involving active prevention and control, which led to limited casualties of the epidemic. The ongoing analysis of data associated with the current outbreak of Ebola might be exploited to ensure quarantine and control measures are put in place effectively to prevent widespread deaths from this lethal disease and likewise with future emergent pathogens.
INFORMATION:
Liu, D., Chen, J., Chai, R. and Wang, W. (2014) 'Evolutionary analysis of important public health event-based multi-agent simulation model', Int. J. Innovative Computing and Applications, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp.33.
An evolutionary approach to epidemics
2014-09-09
ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:
Squeezed quantum communication
2014-09-09
This news release is available in German. It could be difficult for the NSA to hack encrypted messages in the future – at least if a technology being investigated by scientists at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Light in Erlangen and the University Erlangen-Nürnberg will be successful: quantum cryptography. The physicists are now laying the foundation to make this technique, which can already be used for the generation of secret keys, available for a wider range of applications. They are the first scientists to send a pulse of bright light in a particularly ...
First evidence for water ice clouds found outside solar system
2014-09-09
VIDEO:
A team of scientists led by Carnegie's Jacqueline Faherty has discovered the first evidence of water ice clouds on an object outside of our own Solar System. Water ice clouds...
Click here for more information.
Washington, D.C.—A team of scientists led by Carnegie's Jacqueline Faherty has discovered the first evidence of water ice clouds on an object outside of our own Solar System. Water ice clouds exist on our own gas giant planets--Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune--but ...
Fires continue in Northern California
2014-09-09
Storms have been the major cause of the huge fires that California has been battling in its northern regions.
A lightning strike from a storm on August 12, 2014 started the fires in the Happy Camp Complex. There are currently 99,200 acres affected and the fire complex is at 30% containment.
At around 4pm PDT on September 08, the smoke inversion lifted and fire behavior significantly increased on the south and southeast sides of the fire with spotting distances of up to a mile. Multiple spot fires occurred across the Scott River from Swanson Gulch and McGuffy Creek. ...
High-stakes testing, lack of voice driving teachers out
2014-09-09
EAST LANSING, Mich. --- Contrary to popular opinion, unruly students are not driving out teachers in droves from America's urban school districts. Instead, teachers are quitting due to frustration with standardized testing, declining pay and benefits and lack of voice in what they teach.
So finds a Michigan State University education scholar – and former high school teacher – in her latest research on teacher turnover, which costs the nation an estimated $2.2 billion a year.
Alyssa Hadley Dunn, assistant professor of teacher education, conducted in-depth interviews ...
RT and concurrent chemotherapy after surgery is effective treatment for high-risk endometrial cancer
2014-09-09
Fairfax, Va., September 9, 2014—Radiation therapy with concurrent paclitaxel chemotherapy following surgery is an effective treatment for patients with high-risk endometrial cancer, according to a study published in the September 1, 2014 edition of the International Journal of Radiation Oncology ● Biology ● Physics (Red Journal), the official scientific journal of the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO).
Endometrial cancer is the most common gynecologic malignancy. Patients with early-stage disease are typically treated with surgery alone; however, ...
PP&AR sets national agenda for long-term care
2014-09-09
The number of Americans needing long-term care — also called long-term services and supports (LTSS) — is projected to more than double to 27 million by 2050. Approximately 70 percent of people over the age of 65 will rely on some form of LTSS for an average of three years. The latest issue of Public Policy & Aging Report (PP&AR) lays down a policy prescription for a sustainable system of LTSS in the U.S., using the Federal Commission on Long-Term Care's 2013 final report as its foundation.
With support from The SCAN Foundation, the issue presents nine articles under ...
Why do mushrooms turn brown?
2014-09-09
This news release is available in German.
The research team of Annette Rompel from the Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, University of Vienna explore the mechanisms behind the "browning reaction" during the spoilage of mushrooms. The researchers were able to demonstrate that the enzyme responsible is already formed prior to fungal spoiling. The detailed study is published online in the well renowned journals, Phytochemistry and Acta Crystallographica.
Understanding the mechanism of enzyme tyrosinase pigmentation is currently of both medical as well as technological ...
Growth factors found in breast milk may protect against necrotizing enterocolitis
2014-09-09
Philadelphia, PA, September 9, 2014 – Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a devastating gastrointestinal illness affecting up to 10% of premature infants, with a 30% mortality rate, and formula feeding has been identified as a risk factor for NEC. A study published in The American Journal of Pathology found that growth factors present in human breast milk, but not in formula, may explain the protection against intestinal damage. Further, supplementing the diet of newborn NEC-affected rodents with these growth factors promotes epithelial cell survival.
"NEC is a highly ...
A weekly text message could encourage healthier food choices, new study shows
2014-09-09
Many people are unaware that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's mandated nutrition labels are based on a 2,000-calorie-a-day diet, but a simple weekly text message reminder can greatly improve that awareness, according to a new study from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
While not an outright recommendation, the 2,000-calorie benchmark is what the FDA considers a reasonable daily calorie intake for many adults. More importantly, nutrition labels on food products sold in the U.S. are based on it.
The key to translating nutrition labels and ...
The saplings go their own way
2014-09-09
This news release is available in German. Leipzig. In tropical rainforests, most young trees grow spatially independent from their parent trees. This means that it is not possible to predict where seedlings will take root, and less specialised species therefore have an advantage even in the species-rich rainforests of the tropics. This is the finding of a study, conducted by researchers at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), the University of California and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, the results of which were published recently in ...