Forecasting the impact of fully automated vehicle adoption on US road traffic injuries

About The Study: Commercial autonomous vehicle (AV) availability and adoption are underway and could impact national road traffic injuries. In this simulation study, potential injury reductions in the U.S. were forecasted using several scenarios based on real-world data. The results of this study suggest that AV adoption may reduce expected injuries; however, predicted confidence intervals remain broad for the baseline injury forecast, and none of the scenarios reduced expected injuries outside of these bounds. 

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Avery B. Nathens, MD, MPH, PhD, email avery.nathens@sunnybrook.ca.

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(doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2025.5711)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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