Research predicts possible 6,800 new Ebola cases this month

Rate of rise in cases significantly increased in August in Liberia and Guinea, around the time that a mass quarantine was put in place

2014-09-19

(Press-News.org) Tempe, Ariz. (Sept. 19, 2014) - New research published today in the online journal PLoS Outbreaks predicts new Ebola cases could reach 6,800 in West Africa by the end of the month if new control measures are not enacted.

Arizona State University and Harvard University researchers also discovered through modelling analysis that the rate of rise in cases significantly increased in August in Liberia and Guinea, around the time that a mass quarantine was put in place, indicating that the mass quarantine efforts may have made the outbreak worse than it would have been otherwise. Deteriorating living and hygiene conditions in some of the quarantined areas sparked riots last month. Sierra Leone began a three day country-wide quarantine today, where all citizens have been asked to stay at home, said Sherry Towers, research professor for the ASU Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modelling Sciences Center (MCMSC).

"There may be other reasons for the worsening of the outbreak spread, including the possibility that the virus has become more transmissible, but it's also possible that the quarantine control efforts actually made the outbreak spread more quickly by crowding people together in unsanitary conditions," Towers said.

The study, "Temporal variations in the effective reproduction number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak," is authored by Towers, Oscar Patterson-Lomba of the Harvard School of Public Health and Carlos Castillo-Chavez, ASU Regent's professor and MCMSC executive director.

Researchers assessed whether or not attempted control efforts are effective in curbing the ongoing West African Ebola outbreak that has spread over a large geographic area, causing thousands of infections and deaths. Because the outbreak has spread to densely populated areas, the risk of international spread is increased. Also compounding the problem is a lack of resources for effective quarantine and isolation in the under-developed countries that have been affected, and the high mobility of the population in a region with porous borders, according to the study.

"No licensed vaccine or specific treatment for the disease is currently available. This leaves improved hygiene, quarantine, isolation and social distancing as the only potential interventions," Castillo-Chavez said. "Improved control measures must be put into place." On Tuesday, President Obama announced that 3,000 US troops and medical personnel would be sent to the region to help control the outbreak, he added.

Researchers examined the current outbreak data for Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia through statistical research methods up until Sept. 8, 2014, as estimated by the World Health Organization. The analysis examines the local rates of exponential rise to estimate how the reproduction number of cases appears to be changing over time. Calculations showed a range of 6,800 predicted new cases at the upper end of the spectrum and 4,400 on average. The study was funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences at the National Institutes of Health.

INFORMATION: Contacts: Sherry Towers, 630-308-8187, best time to call: 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. EST Julie Newberg, ASU Media Relations, 480-727-3116

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Domestic violence likely more frequent for same-sex couples

2014-09-19

CHICAGO --- Domestic violence occurs at least as frequently, and likely even more so, between same-sex couples compared to opposite-sex couples, according to a review of literature by Northwestern Medicine scientists. Previous studies, when analyzed together, indicate that domestic violence affects 25 percent to 75 percent of lesbian, gay and bisexual individuals. However, a lack of representative data and underreporting of abuse paints an incomplete picture of the true landscape, suggesting even higher rates. An estimated one in four heterosexual women experience domestic ...

A better way to track emerging cell therapies using MRIs

2014-09-19

Cellular therapeutics – using intact cells to treat and cure disease – is a hugely promising new approach in medicine but it is hindered by the inability of doctors and scientists to effectively track the movements, destination and persistence of these cells in patients without resorting to invasive procedures, like tissue sampling. In a paper published September 17 in the online journal Magnetic Resonance in Medicine, researchers at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh and elsewhere describe the first human tests of using ...

NASA catches a weaker Edouard, headed toward Azores

2014-09-19

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the Atlantic Ocean and captured a picture of Tropical Storm Edouard as it continues to weaken. The National Hurricane Center expects Edouard to affect the western Azores over the next two days. NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Tropical Storm Edouard on Sept. 18 at 1:45 p.m. EDT and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument took a visible picture that showed the eye had disappeared and the bulk of clouds pushed east of center. At 5 a.m. EDT on Sept. 19, Edouard's maximum sustained winds had decreased to near ...

NASA, NOAA satellites show Odile's remnant romp through southern US

2014-09-19

Former Hurricane Odile may be a bad memory for Baja California, but the remnants have moved over New Mexico and Texas where they are expected to bring rainfall there. NASA's TRMM satellite measured Odile's heavy rainfall rates on Sept. 18, and NOAA's GOES-West satellite saw the clouds associated with the former storm continue to linger over the U.S. Southwest on Sept. 19. The remnants of Hurricane Odile were dropping heavy rain in the area from southern Arizona to western Texas when NASA-JAXA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite flew over on September ...

NASA sees Tropical Storm playing polo with western Mexico

2014-09-19

Tropical Storm Polo is riding along the coast of western Mexico like horses in the game of his namesake. NASA's Aqua satellite saw Polo about 300 miles south-southeast of Baja California on its track north. NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Polo on Sept. 18 at 4:35 p.m. EDT and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer captured a visible image of the storm that showed that much of the clouds, thunderstorms and showers were west and south of the center of circulation, and away from the coast. That's an indication that easterly wind shear had increased and were pushing ...

NASA eyes Tropical Storm Fung-Wong move through Northwestern Pacific

2014-09-19

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong continued to affect the Philippines while moving north through the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. NASA's Aqua satellite provided infrared data on the storm's clouds that showed some high, strong thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall over the northern and central regions of the country. The storm is now expected to affect three more countries over the next several days. The AIRS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite uses infrared light to read cloud top temperatures in tropical cyclones. When Aqua passed over Fung-Wong infrared data ...

Dwindling wind may tip predator-prey balance

2014-09-19

MADISON, Wis. — Bent and tossed by the wind, a field of soybean plants presents a challenge for an Asian lady beetle on the hunt for aphids. But what if the air — and the soybeans — were still? Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns may get the lion's share of our climate change attention, but predators may want to give some thought to wind, according to a University of Wisconsin Madison zoologist's study, which is among the first to demonstrate the way "global stilling" may alter predator-prey relationships. "There are all sorts of other things that ...

A two generation lens: Current state policies fail to support families with young children

2014-09-19

September 19, 2014 -- Recent two-generation approaches to reducing poverty that help children and their parents are receiving increasing attention from researchers, advocates, and foundations. By combining education and training for parents to enable them to move to jobs that offer a path out of poverty with high-quality early care and education for children, these programs aim to improve the life opportunities of both. However, according to a new report from the National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP), State Policies through a Two-Generation Lens, while research ...

Soft robotics 'toolkit' features everything a robot-maker needs

2014-09-19

A new resource unveiled today by researchers from several Harvard University labs in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin provides both experienced and aspiring researchers with the intellectual raw materials needed to design, build, and operate robots made from soft, flexible materials. With the advent of low-cost 3D printing, laser cutters, and other advances in manufacturing technology, soft robotics is emerging as an increasingly important field. Using principles drawn from conventional rigid robot design, but working with pliable materials, engineers are pioneering ...

Fingertip sensor gives robot unprecedented dexterity

2014-09-19

CAMBRIDGE, Mass-- Researchers at MIT and Northeastern University have equipped a robot with a novel tactile sensor that lets it grasp a USB cable draped freely over a hook and insert it into a USB port. The sensor is an adaptation of a technology called GelSight, which was developed by the lab of Edward Adelson, the John and Dorothy Wilson Professor of Vision Science at MIT, and first described in 2009. The new sensor isn't as sensitive as the original GelSight sensor, which could resolve details on the micrometer scale. But it's smaller — small enough to fit on a robot's ...

Research predicts possible 6,800 new Ebola cases this month

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES: