(Press-News.org) Research from The University of Manchester using cutting edge computer analysis reveals that despite mutating, Ebola hasn't evolved to become deadlier since the first outbreak 40 years ago.
The surprising results demonstrate that whilst a high number of genetic changes have been recorded in the virus, it hasn't changed at a functional level to become more or less virulent.
The findings, published in the journal Virology, demonstrate that the much higher death toll during the current outbreak, with the figure at nearly 10,500, isn't due to mutations/evolution making the virus more deadly or more virulent.
Professor Simon Lovell from the Faculty of Life Sciences explains: "Using data from every outbreak since 1976 we were able to highlight what changes there had been in the RNA of the virus and then using specially developed tools predict the consequences of those changes. What we found was that whilst Ebola is mutating, it isn't evolving to the point of adapting to become more or less virulent. The function of the virus has remained the same over the past four decades which really surprised us. Unfortunately this does mean the Ebola virus that has now emerged on several occasions since the 1970s will very probably do so again."
Professor David Robertson says the findings can be seen as good news: "The fact that Ebola isn't changing in a way that effects the virulence of the disease means that vaccines and treatments developed during this current outbreak have a very high chance of being effective against future outbreaks. It also means that methods to successfully tackle the virus should work again, so hopefully in the future an outbreak can be stopped from spreading at a much earlier stage."
The team used a computational approach that PhD student, Abayomi Olabode, developed for analysing changes in HIV-1. This had highlighted adaptions within the virus in the context of protein structure. When they used it to study Ebola they expected to see similar things but didn't.
Professor Robertson points out the advantages of the computer-based approach: "We were able to do this research quickly and whilst the Ebola outbreak was still ongoing. The data generated by Gire et al. in 2014 was all freely available and our analysis technique is a safe way to study the virus without unnecessary exposure. This type of study could be used on future outbreaks to analyse what is happening in real time within the virus. This level of surveillance will only become more essential in the fight against contagious illness as we live in an increasingly globally connected society."
The team also stress that, counter-intuitively, analysis is needed to identify when a virus becomes less potent. This is because infected individuals could potentially infect more people if they did not progress to severe illness. The deadly nature of Ebola means the symptoms can be identified at a relatively early stage and those who had been in contact with the patient during the infectious stage readily identified by contact tracing. If it becomes less deadly then it may take longer to spot those symptoms, if they can be spotted at all, or for the person to become ill increasing the chance of spreading the virus. An attenuated virus, although less deadly on an individual basis, could spread widely and thus ultimately cause many more deaths.
Professor Tony Redmond from the University's Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute helped to coordinate the NHS response to Ebola in West Africa: "Like any medical response, the response to ebola must be supported by science. These are very important findings and emphasise that the spread of the virus in this outbreak owed as much to factors within the human community than within the virus itself."
Professor Lovell concludes: "Our study demonstrates the vital role computational analysis can play during a virus outbreak. As scientists our role is to worry about the potential changes our research tool allows us to map what is happening within a virus and the consequences of any changes. Ebola will occur again, and it's only through such close monitoring that we will contain it and ultimately eradicate it."
INFORMATION:
Notes to Editors
Embargoed: 00:01 BST Tuesday 14 April 2015
The paper "Ebola virus is evolving but not changing: no evidence for functional change in EBOV from 1976 to the 2014 outbreak" will be published in the journal Virology.
Data used from Gire, S. K. et al. (2014) Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak. Science 345, 1369-1372, doi:10.1126/science.1259657.
For interview requests please contact:
Jamie Brown
Media Relations Officer
The University of Manchester
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 8383
Mob: +44 (0)7887 561318
Email: Jamie.Brown@manchester.ac.uk
Physicists from ITMO University, Ioffe Institute and Australian National University managed to make homogenous cylindrical objects completely invisible in the microwave range. Contrary to the now prevailing notion of invisibility that relies on metamaterial coatings, the scientists achieved the result using a homogenous object without any additional coating layers. The method is based on a new understanding of electromagnetic wave scattering. The results of the study were published in Scientific Reports.
The scientists studied light scattering from a glass cylinder filled ...
The number of children being diagnosed with type 1 diabetes is increasing 3-4% every year and more so in school-aged children. Treating the condition is complex and poor management can often lead to medical emergencies that result in hospitalisation, placing ever greater demands on health services.
To improve the efficiency of these services and reduce potentially unnecessary admissions, researchers wanted find out how often children with type 1 diabetes are admitted to hospital compared with children of the same age, gender and socioeconomic class, living in the same ...
The amount of government money pumped into dementia and stroke research in the UK has risen significantly in recent years, but it is still way too low when compared with the economic and personal impact these conditions have, finds a study published in the online journal BMJ Open.
The researchers assessed central government and charity research expenditure in 2012 into the UK's leading causes of death and disability: cancer, coronary heart disease, dementia and stroke.
In 2012, all four conditions accounted for over half (55%) of all UK deaths and for 5.5 million disability ...
Children with type 1diabetes run almost five times the risk of being admitted to hospital for any reason as their peers, finds research published in the online journal BMJ Open.
Pre-schoolers and those from disadvantaged backgrounds are most at risk, the findings indicate.
The number of new cases of childhood type 1 diabetes has been rising steadily by around 3-4% a year, the evidence shows, and the risk of death among those with the condition under the age of 30 is nine times that of the general public.
The researchers analysed the causes of hospital admission after ...
A new type of technology that senses minute changes in the levels of particular compounds in exhaled breath, accurately identifies high risk changes which herald the development of stomach cancer, reveals research published online in the journal Gut.
The findings prompt the researchers to suggest that the technology--known as nanoarray analysis--could be used not only to test for the presence of stomach cancer, but also to monitor those at high risk of subsequently developing the disease.
Gastric cancer develops in a series of well-defined steps, but there's currently ...
1. Task Force weighs evidence on diabetes screening
Researchers for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) have completed a systematic evidence review to inform an upcoming update of Task Force recommendations on screening asymptomatic, nonpregnant adults for type 2 diabetes. The review is published in Annals of Internal Medicine .
Approximately 21 million persons in the U.S. received a diabetes diagnosis in 2010 and an estimated 8 million cases went undiagnosed. Screening asymptomatic persons for diabetes may lead to earlier identification and earlier ...
While a debate was raging between scientists and government regulators on how best to explain to patients the risks of participating in clinical research studies that compare standardized treatments, a team of bioethicists boldly went where no experts had gone before -- to the public.
What the respondents said surprised them: Keep it simple, but always ask permission, even when the research only involves gathering data from anonymized medical records.
"We didn't anticipate that people would want to grant permission for medical record searches, a research method that ...
ANN ARBOR--Research led by the University of Michigan Life Sciences Institute has identified a gene critical to controlling the body's ability to create blood cells and immune cells from blood-forming stem cells--known as hematopoietic stem cells.
The findings, scheduled for online publication in the Journal of Clinical Investigation April 13, provide new insights into the underlying mechanics of how the body creates and maintains a healthy blood supply and immune system, both in normal conditions and in situations of stress--like the body experiences following a bone ...
DALLAS, April 13, 2015--The American Heart Association (AHA) released new recommendations today to address gaps in common standards around comprehensive workplace wellness programs (CWWPs). The recommendations improve the design, measurement and recognition of CWWPs, and, if adopted by employers, could significantly impact efforts to improve the cardiovascular health of the American workforce.
An advisory panel of experts in population and workplace health, cardiology and preventive medicine conducted the review, which includes an extensive evaluation of workplace ...
WASHINGTON, DC - A medicinal liquid form of marijuana may show promise as a treatment for children with severe epilepsy that is not responding to other treatments, according to a study released today that will be presented at the American Academy of Neurology's 67th Annual Meeting in Washington, DC, April 18 to 25, 2015.
The study involved 213 people, ranging from toddlers to adults, with a median age of 11 who had severe epilepsy that did not respond to other treatments. Participants had Dravet syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, epilepsy types that can lead to intellectual ...
