(Press-News.org) Coastal communities across the world are increasingly facing up to the huge threats posed by a combination of extreme storms and predicted rises in sea levels as a result of global climate change.
However, scientists at the University of Plymouth have developed a simple algorithm-based model which accurately predicts how coastlines could be affected and - as a result - enables communities to identify the actions they might need to take in order to adapt.
The Forecasting Coastal Evolution (ForCE) model has the potential to be a game-changing advance in coastal evolution science, allowing adaptations in the shoreline to be predicted over timescales of anything from days to decades and beyond.
This broad range of timescales means that the model is capable of predicting both the short-term impact of violent storm or storm sequences (over days to years), as well as predicting the much longer-term evolution of the coast due to forecasted rising sea levels (decades).
The computer model uses past and present beach measurements, and data showing the physical properties of the coast, to forecast how they might evolve in the future and assess the resilience of our coastlines to erosion and flooding.
Unlike previous simple models of its kind that attempt forecasts on similar timescales, ForCE also considers other key factors like tidal, surge and global sea-level rise data to assess how beaches might be impacted by predicted climate change.
Beach sediments form our frontline of defence against coastal erosion and flooding, preventing damage to our valuable coastal infrastructure. So coastal managers are rightly concerned about monitoring the volume of beach sediment on our beaches.
The new ForCE model opens the door for managers to keeping track of the 'health' of our beaches without leaving their office and to predict how this might change in a future of rising sea level and changing waves.
Model predictions have shown to be more than 80% accurate in current tests, based on measurements of beach change at Perranporth, on the north coast of Cornwall in South West England.
It has also been show to accurately predict the formation and location of offshore sand bars in response to extreme storms, and how beaches recover in the months and years after storm events.
As such, researchers say it could provide an early warning for coastal erosion and potential overtopping, but its stability and efficiency suggests it could forecast coastal evolution over much longer timescales.
The study, published in Coastal Engineering, highlights that the increasing threats posed by sea level rise and coastal squeeze has meant that tracking the morphological evolution of sedimentary coasts is of substantial and increasing societal importance.
Dr Mark Davidson, Associate Professor in Coastal Processes, developed the ForCE model having previously pioneered a traffic light system based on the severity of approaching storms to highlight the level of action required to protect particular beaches.
He said: "Top level coastal managers around the world have recognised a real need to assess the resilience of our coastlines in a climate of changing waves and sea level. However, until now they have not had the essential tools that are required to make this assessment. We hope that our work with the ForCE model will be a significant step towards providing this new and essential capability."
The University of Plymouth is one of the world's leading authorities in coastal engineering and change in the face of extreme storms and sea-level rise.
Researchers from the University's Coastal Processes Research Group have examined their effects everywhere from the coasts of South West England to remote islands in the Pacific Ocean.
They have shown the winter storms of 2013/14 were the most energetic to hit the Atlantic coast of western Europe since records began in 1948, and demonstrated that five years after those storms, many beaches had still not fully recovered.
CASE STUDY - PERRANPORTH, NORTH CORNWALL
Researchers from the University of Plymouth have been carrying out beach measurements at Perranporth in North Cornwall for more than a decade. Recently, this has been done as part of the £4million BLUE-coast project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, which aims to address the importance of sediment budgets and their role in coastal recovery.
Surveys have shown that following extreme storms, such as those which hit the UK in 2013/14, beaches recovered to some degree in the summer months but that recovery was largely wiped out in the following winters. That has created a situation where high water shorelines are further landward at sites such as Perranporth.
Sea level is presently forecast to rise by about 0.5m over the next 100 years. However, there is large uncertainty attached to this and it could easily be more than 1m over the same time-frame. If the latter proves to be true, prominent structures on the coastline - such as the Watering Hole bar - will be under severe threat within the next 60 years.
INFORMATION:
Philadelphia, July 7, 2021 - Tourette syndrome, a neurodevelopmental disorder, causes motor and phonic "tics" or uncontrollable repeated behaviors and vocalizations. People affected by Tourette syndrome can often suppress these tics for some time before the urges become overwhelming, and researchers have long wondered at the neural underpinnings of the suppression effort.
Now, in a new study using a non-invasive technique to measure brain activity called high-density electroencephalography (hdEEG), researchers at Yale School of Medicine have assessed the impact of tic suppression on functional ...
Frailty is a better predictor than factors such as age when determining how older adults fare one year after receiving critical care.
A team led by researchers from the University of Waterloo analyzed data from more than 24,000 community-dwelling older adults receiving home care in Ontario who were subsequently admitted into an intensive-care unit (ICU).
They applied three different measures for baseline frailty and found that an individual's level of frailty was linked to survival one year later. The most frail ICU survivors had only a one in five chance of living to one year after discharge.
Clinical frailty is age-related and characterized ...
The UK public is likely to take the COVID-19 pandemic less seriously once restrictions are lifted, according to new research led by Cardiff University.
Psychologists found lockdown in itself was a primary reason why so many people were willing to abide by the rules from the start - believing the threat must be severe if the government imposes such drastic measures.
The team from Cardiff and the universities of Bath and Essex examined the reasons behind headline polling support for COVID-19 measures. They carried out two UK surveys*, six months apart, during 2020. Their findings are published today in the journal Royal Society Open Science.
Lead author Dr Colin Foad said: "Surprisingly, we found that people judge the severity ...
An unknown methane-producing process is likely at work in the hidden ocean beneath the icy shell of Saturn's moon Enceladus, suggests a new study published in Nature Astronomy by scientists at the University of Arizona and Paris Sciences & Lettres University.
Giant water plumes erupting from Enceladus have long fascinated scientists and the public alike, inspiring research and speculation about the vast ocean that is believed to be sandwiched between the moon's rocky core and its icy shell. Flying through the plumes and sampling their chemical makeup, the Cassini spacecraft detected a relatively high concentration of certain molecules associated with hydrothermal vents on the bottom of Earth's oceans, specifically dihydrogen, ...
Using artificial intelligence, UT Southwestern scientists have identified thousands of genetic mutations likely to affect the immune system in mice. The work is part of one Nobel laureate's quest to find virtually all such variations in mammals.
"This study identifies 101 novel gene candidates with greater than 95% chance of being required for immunity," says END ...
Five Simon Fraser University scholars are among international scientists sounding an alarm over the "pervasive social and ecological consequences" of the destruction and suppression of the knowledge systems of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
Their paper, published today in the Journal of Ethnobiology, draws on the knowledge of 30 international Indigenous and non-Indigenous co-authors, and highlights 15 strategic actions to support the efforts of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in sustaining their knowledge systems and ties to lands.
Study co-lead, SFU archaeology professor Dana Lepofsky, says, "We ...
AMHERST, Mass. - Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst recently discovered that the ability of agricultural grasses to withstand drought is directly related to the health of the microbial community living on their stems, leaves and seeds.
"Microbes do an enormous amount for the grasses that drive the world's agriculture," says Emily Bechtold, a graduate student in UMass Amherst's microbiology department and lead author of the paper recently published in Applied and Environmental Microbiology. "They protect from pathogens, provide the grass with nutrients such as nitrogen, supply hormones to bolster the plant's health and growth, protect from UV radiation ...
Veterinarians at the University of California, Davis, have found that a cat's DNA alters how it responds to a life-saving medication used to treat hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, or HCM, a heart disease that affects 1 in 7 cats. The END ...
A new national study published in Psychiatric Services finds that over a quarter of US adults with depression or anxiety symptoms reported needing mental health counseling but were not able to access it during the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers analyzed data from nearly 70,000 adults surveyed in the US Census Household Pulse Survey in December 2020.
"Social isolation, COVID-related anxiety, disruptions in normal routines, job loss, and food insecurity have led to a surge in mental illness during the pandemic," said lead author, END ...
Des Plaines, IL - The Society for Academic Emergency Medicine (SAEM) is pleased to announce the release of the first publication in a series of Guidelines for Reasonable and Appropriate Care in the Emergency Department (GRACE), which focuses on low-risk chest pain. The article, titled " END ...