JOURNAL ARTICLES
21st Century Hydrological Trends in the Mississippi River Basin Intensify the East to West Moisture Gradient
Journal of Climate
Models suggest precipitation and evaporation will both increase in the Mississippi basin. A study combining 19 climate models suggests that under a medium-high carbon emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), precipitation will increase throughout the Mississippi River basin in the 21st century. However, soil moisture is likely to decrease due to increased evaporation. Water runoff and river discharge appear to vary among the different models and river sub-basins, but in general runoff tends to increase in eastern areas, with drying more likely in the Missouri River sub-basin.
Understanding the Role of Climate Skepticism in Climate Change Adaptation: a case study of Western U.S. ranchers
Weather, Climate, and Society
Western U.S. ranchers are skeptical of climate change. They adapt anyway. Interviews with 23 ranchers in western U.S. rangelands found that most professed doubt about anthropogenic climate change, yet were very aware of changes in their environment. They adopted a range of adaptation strategies without attributing them to climate change. The researchers suggest that a position of climate skepticism allows ranchers to adapt to protect their livelihoods while preserving personal identity and community beliefs.
Stronger Southern Ocean Anthropogenic Carbon Uptake in Eddying Ocean Simulations
Journal of Climate
High-resolution models show increased Southern Ocean carbon absorption. Low-resolution Earth system models often fail to simulate medium-scale ocean eddies and similar features. A new study finds that higher-resolution models of the Southern Ocean, which do simulate those eddies, show the Southern Ocean taking up about 10% more anthropogenic carbon. This helps explain discrepancies between models and observations, and suggests that low-resolution models may underestimate carbon storage in the Southern Ocean.
The Role of Gender in Flood Mortality in European and Mediterranean Territories
Weather, Climate, and Society
Men are overrepresented in European flood deaths. Data from 2,875 flood fatalities in European and Mediterranean areas finds that men accounted for 61% of deaths. Male fatalities were more likely to occur in high-risk, active, and outdoor settings such as crossing rivers, while women were more likely to die in indoor and more passive settings such as being trapped at home by flood waters.
Projected Future Changes of Atmospheric Rivers by a High- and Low-resolution CESM
Journal of Climate
High-and low-resolution simulations agree atmospheric rivers will be more frequent and intense under warming. Most projections of future atmospheric rivers (ARs) rely on low-resolution climate models; a new study suggests these models underestimate the actual values of AR frequency, intensity, and precipitation by up to 40%. Despite this, high- and low-resolution models agree that ARs will become around 30% more frequent, 40% more intense, and 30% rainier under climate change.
An Ultra-Fine Resolution Numerical Investigation of the Influence of Terrain on Tornado Behavior
Monthly Weather Review
Interacting with terrain may widen and strengthen tornadoes. A novel, very-high-resolution numerical study modeled tornadoes in idealized terrain as well as a digitized version of real terrain. In the idealized terrain, slopes and hills increased the width, intensity, and peak wind speed of simulated tornadoes in ways that varied with the shape and slope of terrain. This was also true in a simulated version of real terrain, but the effects were smaller and more complex.
Association between Political Ideology and Climate Change Risk Perception in Anglo-Saxon Countries: Does Perceived Extreme Weather Experience Matter?
Weather, Climate, and Society
Extreme weather experience can reduce polarization around climate change. Cross-national survey data from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia finds that of the three countries, U.S. residents overall have the lowest and most divided perceptions of climate change risk. Individuals with right-leaning ideology have a significantly lower risk perception. Perceived extreme weather experience raises risk perception in all three countries and, in the U.S., weakens the role of ideology, especially among the right-leaning public.
Seasonal & Geographical Patterns of Lightning Incidence in New Mexico
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
New Mexico’s most dangerous areas for lightning. 22 years of data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network suggest that New Mexico counties near the Texas border (especially Roosevelt County) have the highest density in the state of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes, which can initiate dangerous wildfires. In addition, there are high rates of CG lightning in forested mountain areas, with the Gila and Lincoln National Forests showing the highest incidence.
Modeling the Impact of Rural-Urban Migration on Carbon Intensity: An environmentally constrained dual urban-rural DSGE approach
Weather, Climate, and Society
Rural-urban migration and wage fairness appear to reduce carbon emissions in China. A modeling study suggests that Chinese policies encouraging rural-to-urban migration reduce overall carbon emissions (emissions increase in cities, but this is outweighed by a reduction in rural areas) and increase economic growth; however, this effect is dampened when rural-to-urban migrants experience wage discrimination. Following periods of increased migration, a gradual rollback of policies incentivizing rural-urban migration also appears to reduce emissions and enhance growth.
Land-Atmosphere Interaction Responses of Burn Scar Heat Islands: A Case Study of the 2018 Camp Fire
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The 2018 Camp Fire created “heat islands” in Northern California by altering heat and moisture exchange between the land and atmosphere. Researchers using satellite imagery and numerical models found that subsequent changes in local wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns persist for long periods, especially in areas with complex terrain, highlighting the need for improved post-fire planning.
Uneven Climate Adaptation: Mapping Socio-Institutional Vulnerability across Europe’s Secondary Cities
Weather, Climate, and Society
Mismatch between climate impacts and adaptation capacity means uneven vulnerability for smaller European cities. Combining statistics from many sectors across 30 medium-sized cities in Central and Southern Europe finds that Central European cities tend to have more institutional capacity to adapt to climate change, even though they exhibit deeper social inequalities. In Southern European cities, citizens are frequently more civically engaged but administrative capacity and financial resources for climate adaptation are limited.
Warming and Wetting Induced by Urbanization and Anthropogenic Heat over a Fast-Developing Large River Delta
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Rapid urbanization is causing hotter, wetter summers for city dwellers in China’s Pearl River Delta. The Pearl River Delta is one of the world’s most rapidly urbanizing areas. A simulation study suggests that the conversion of vegetated land to impervious surface is driving observed increases in summer air temperature and rainfall. This is intensified by increased heat generated by buildings, vehicles, and people.
When Climate Justice Frame Backfires in China: Personal Norms as a Key Moderator
Weather, Climate, and Society
Climate justice framing fails to encourage public engagement in China. An online survey of 242 people in China found that framing issues in terms of climate justice encouraged those with existing personal intentions to act on climate, and discouraged those without them, with a negative effect on participants’ support for climate policies and intentions for pro-environment behavior. The researchers suggest this may be due to a framing of climate change as others’ responsibility (e.g., Western nations and elites) and a cultural environment encouraging institutional rather than individual action.
Mapping Synchronous Heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere: Insights from Climate Network Analysis
Journal of Climate
Areas continents apart are prone to sync up on extreme heatwaves. Simultaneous extreme heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe in the Northern Hemisphere. This study maps out the areas most prone to having extreme heat at the same time. Southeast Asia and western North America tend to synchronize with the Caspian Sea, while East Asia and southern North America often synchronize with north-central Europe.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.
About AMS Journals
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.
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